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Kyoto and Beyond

Kyoto and Beyond. Road to Durban. The 5th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change . November 7 th , 2011. www.isciences.com. Introduction.

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Kyoto and Beyond

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  1. Kyoto and Beyond Road to Durban The 5th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change November 7th, 2011 www.isciences.com

  2. Introduction Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Road to Durban is a summary of the events and negotiations that have transpired since COP16 (Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 2010) and preparatory to COP17 (Nov. 28-Dec.9, 2011). • Other presentations in the series include*: • Kyoto and beyond: the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate Change (2008) • Report on Copenhagen COP15 (2009) • Road to Cancun COP16 (2010) • Report on Cancun COP16 (2011) • * Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html

  3. Contents NOTE: Throughout this presentation clickable hyperlinks that provide additional information will be underlined and written in green.

  4. A Brief Review of COP16 COP16 (Conference of the Parties) was held from Nov. 29 to Dec. 10, 2010 in Cancun, Mexico. “ Cancun was a big step... Governments renewed their trust in each other, but to succeed fully they need to press boldly ahead with what they have agreed. “Christina Figueres, UNFCCC Executive Secretary • COP16 was deemed a relative success, restoring global belief in the process of climate change legislation. Image Credit: UNFCCC Website • The meeting resulted in the Cancun Agreements, tangible steps towards reducing the effects of climate change through 5 drafted mechanisms. • The meeting failed to resolve the future of the Kyoto Protocol, which ends in 2012.

  5. A Brief Review of COP16 The 5 Mechanisms of the Cancun Agreements The Green Climate Fund Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) Monitoring, Reporting and Verifying (MRV) Incorporation of the CopenhagenAccord Adaptation Framework For more information click on an item in the list

  6. Significant Events Between COP16 & COP17 June 6 - 17 UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn Oct 1 - 7 UN Climate Change Conference in Panama January 27-28 South African Civil Society Meeting August 26 – 27 Eighth BASIC Ministerial Meeting on Climate Change January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December April 3 – 11UN Bangkok Climate Change Conference Aug 22MaiteNkoana-Mashabane meets business leaders Aug 29MaiteNkoana-Mashabane meets Organized Labour Sept 26 – 27Pre–COP17 Summit Event Key Official UNFCCC Meetings Other Significant Meetings and Events For more information click on an event box

  7. Essential Points of Understanding COP17 Nov. 28 – Dec. 9, 2011, Durban, South Africa • This is the last conference before the 1st commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol ends (Dec. 31, 2012) and there is no binding instrument post-2012 to address climate change. • The differing viewpoints between developed and developing countries continue to block significant progress. • Climate is changing, impacts of climate change are now emerging, and will intensify over the coming decades. • Increasingly, scientists suggest that the window of opportunity to avoid long-term consequences is closing as global temperatures rise. “ We go to Durban with no illusions that it will be a walk in the park“Jacob Zuma, President of South Africa

  8. Provisional Agenda* COP 17 Key Agenda Items • Discuss progress and implementation of the mechanisms created at COP16, as well as how these mechanisms will be funded. • Discuss and review country commitments to matters such as global financing, emissions reductions, and development and transfer of green technology. • Discuss the financial and technological needs of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and methods for adapting to current effects of climate change. • Discuss methods for equitable access to sustainable development for both Developed and Developing countries. * The agenda will be finalized in Durban. Provisional agenda can be found here.

  9. South Africa’s Contextual Role As host country, South Africa will bring the most vulnerable nations into the center of the climate change discussion. • South Africa is an influential and credible voice of developing nations, particularly as a member of the BASIC countries. • Many hope South Africa will facilitate understanding and cooperation between developed and developing nations. Global confidence in South Africa’s ability to lead negotiations is high. • South Africa, a top 20 GHG emitter, has committed to reducing emissions 34% by 2020 and 42% by 2025. However, some economists say this would require significant restructuring of the country’s industries. Click map image for more information on South Africa’s preparations Image Credit: south-africa.purzuit.com/

  10. South Africa’s Leadership Role Jacob Zuma, South Africa’s President, believes COP17 will highlight the impactsclimate change has had on Africa. “It is a timely conference for our country. Disaster events have become an increasing burden.”President Zuma image credit: Wikimedia Commons Zuma cautions leaders not to be “overly theoretical when countries face life and death situations as a result of climate change,” and he seeks an outcome that is balanced and fair with support for legislative action. • Zuma’s COP17 objectives: • Determine the future of the Kyoto Protocol, • Make adaptation central to climate change legislation, • Implement COP16 decisions.

  11. South Africa’s Leadership Role Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, COP17 President Designate, faces pressure to facilitate cooperation between developed and developing nations. image provided by Wikimedia Commons Nkoana-Mashabane, South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, hopes to prove that developing nations have a credible voice in climate change discussions. Nkoana-Mashabane must: • Avoid the deadlock and inactivity present at COP15, • Build upon the progress made at COP16. Click here for information on Nkoana-Mashabane’s main concerns for COP17

  12. Points of View: Developed vs. Developing Countries On Primary Concerns for COP17

  13. Points of View: Developed vs. Developing Countries On a Second Commitment Period for the Kyoto Protocol

  14. Addressing the Growth Cap Attempts to limit global temperature rise to 2 C may no longer be an option. • To constrain the increase to 2C, GHG emissions should not exceed 450ppm (parts per million) of CO2 equivalent. • According to the EIA*, the projected emissions pathway is 650ppm, which could cause a global temperature rise of around 4C with severe consequences. • Avoiding catastrophic consequences of a 4C rise is not achievable with current emissions reductions pledges, and will require a change in policy. Image Credit: http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/climate/page/3076.aspx * US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration

  15. Addressing the Growth Cap Limiting global temperature rise to 2 C will require transformative changes*. • Reducing the use of fossil fuels, and increasing energy conservation and efficiency will not be enough. • Oil, natural gas, and coal demand must peak before 2020. • Green tech spending must increase to $18 trillion per year between 2010 and 2035 – $13.5 trillion more than currently planned. • The amount of CO2 emitted per dollar of GDP must be reduced in 2008-2020 two times faster than in 1990-2008, and four times faster in 2020-2035. The technology to make these changes exists, but a transformation of this scope has never occurred. *IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 Factsheet; Online at: http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2010/factsheets.pdf

  16. Current State of Global Emissions Emissions measurements for 2009 were the highest in history.* Parts Per Million (PPM) – measurement of atmospheric C02 levels Gigatonne – one billion tonnes, the typical measurement for C02 emissions data 1 PPM = 2.13 Gigatonnes** A chief economist at the IEA has stated that record emissions hinder hopes of limiting global temperature rise to less than 2 C.*** * IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 Factsheet; Online at: http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2010/factsheets.pdf** Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center *** http://www.iea.org/index_info.asp?id=1959

  17. Current State of Global Emissions Emissions are increasing from the developing world, and projected emissions from the power sector are locked in. • About 75% of the 2009 emissions increase came from developing countries compared to 60% in 2008. • 80% of 2020 projected emissions from the power sector are already locked in – amounts are significant and will come from existing power plants and plants currently under construction. “The figures are a stark warning to governments to make rapid climate progress.” Christina Figueres, UNFCCC Executive Secretary. Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons

  18. Current State of Global Emissions Emissions status of the big emitters: US, China, India* • The US ranks 1st in per capita emissions among the biggest economies –18 tons per person. • China’s emissions have increased 171% since 2000 – its emissions levels are greater than the US and Canada combined. • India ranks 3rd and Russia ranks 4th in the list of largest CO2 emitters. Click here to download the Excel file containing the full set of statistics. Click here to view a graphic of the statistics (Mark McCormick and Paul Scruton , The Guardian). * Global C02 emissions statistics for 2009, U.S. Energy Information Administration (US EIA). EIA statistics for 2010 have not yet been compiled for public release.

  19. Current State of Global Financing It is estimated that each year for the next 20 years $275 billion is needed for adaptation and mitigation.* • There is uncertainty about which financing mechanisms are most effective in helping developing countries reduce emissions and implement green development. • The majority of donor countries received low scores in a funding transparency scorecard**, suggesting that there is little way of knowing how much money is contributed to which projects. • Pledges for REDD+ may be too little considering the number of implementing economies. And, funds are not being distributed in a timely manner, adversely affecting the political will of rainforest nations who need to alter agricultural methods. • The international carbon credits market has suffered a nearly total collapse, with only $1.5bn of credits traded last year - the lowest since the market opened in 2005.* * World Bank ** International Institute for Environment and Development

  20. Emerging Science: The Role of Forests There is an increase in attention to the role carbon sinks will play in sequestering GHG emissions.* Land monitoring policies, such as REDD+ have become increasingly important to preserve forests • According to a report released in Sciencexpress by Pan et al., forests play an important role as global carbon sinks. • Studies by Pan et al. have revealed that the world’s forests are currently sequestering 861 ± 66 petagrams** of carbon (PgC). • Some sinks have increased in size. The boreal sink in European Russia increased in size by 35% due to factors that include agricultural abandonment and reduced harvesting. Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons • Others, such as some tropical sinks, have decreased due to deforestation for agriculture and pasture. * Pan et al. “A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests”** 1 petagram = 1,000,000,000,000,000 grams

  21. Emerging Science: Extreme Weather Now A recent IPCC draft report* states a 2-in-3 probability that extreme weather has already worsened due to human-induced GHG emissions. • The extremes include long droughts, monsoonal rains and heavy flooding, and intense heat waves. • The frequency, duration, and intensity of extremes will continue to increase over the coming decades. Image Credit: NASA, Wikimedia Commons • IPCC scientists are 99% certain that the world will experience an increase in extremes of heat and decrease of cold. • Heat waves may peak at 5 degrees hotter by mid-century and at 9 degrees hotter by the end of the century. * IPCC draft report, The Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). Final report is expected to be released in mid-November, 2011.

  22. Emerging Science and COP17 How will the emerging scientific knowledge impact discussions and outcomes in Durban? • Inability to limit temp rise to 2C. May facilitate cooperation and decrease deadlock as pressure to act intensifies. • Current emissions pathway (650ppm, +4C). May result in more “finger pointing” between nations, creating disagreement and deadlock similar to COP15 in Copenhagen By US Army Africa [CC-BY-2.0 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons • Extreme weather now. May intensify discussions on adaptation for the most vulnerable nations, and developed nations may participate with a new sense of urgency as their vulnerabilities are also exposed. • Carbon sinks. May propel more funding for programs such as REDD+ and the Green Climate Fund as the importance of green land-use, such as carbon sinks grows.

  23. Moving Forward in an Uncertain Future Upcoming opportunities to advance climate change progress. Important Meetings Post-COP17 June 2012 - G20 summit, Mexico. May be some discussion on climate change. June 2012 - Rio+20 Earth Summit, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Participants to discuss successes and failures of past 20 years of climate change legislation and ways to tackle future issues. Late 2012 - COP18, Qatar or South Korea. NOTE: It is possible the Kyoto Protocol will have ended completely, therefore eliminating COP18. • The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) ends with the 1st commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (Dec. 31, 2012), but some hope that CDM can be kept alive, even without binding targets. • The European Union, with its own reduction targets and credits (ending in 2020), is predicted to be a driving force for CDM post-2012. • Other nations, such as Venezuela and Bolivia, have voiced that CDM should not operate without another binding commitment period.

  24. Conclusion: Possible Outcomes from COP17 Can COP17 generate effective, timely actions to address increasingly urgent climate issues? Time runs out for the Kyoto Protocol. COP17 sets 5-yr target for Protocol successor. Image Credit: UNFCCC Mechanisms of the Protocol and the Cancun Agreements continue, even without binding targets. The Rio+20 Earth Summit gains new urgency as a potential vehicle of change. Regional coalitions of nations pursue collective agreements outside of the UNFCCC process.

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  30. Citation When referencing this slideshow please use the following citation: ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The Road to Durban. A slideshow; 5th installment in the series Kyoto and Beyond. November 7, 2011. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com. November 7, 2011 www.isciences.com

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