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Considerations for Future Fuels

Considerations for Future Fuels. Dawn Manley, PhD Sandia National Laboratories Meeting the Goals of AB 32: Fuels of the Future  Informational Hearing of the Senate Transportation and Housing Committee October 24, 2011.

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Considerations for Future Fuels

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  1. Considerations for Future Fuels Dawn Manley, PhD Sandia National Laboratories Meeting the Goals of AB 32: Fuels of the Future  Informational Hearing of the Senate Transportation and Housing Committee October 24, 2011

  2. Current vehicle, fuel, and infrastructure mix reflects a history of (mostly) inexpensive petroleum • 97% of transportation fuels are derived from petroleum • Innovation in vehicles has been applied to efficiency improvements, emissions reduction, and performance • Consumers have purchased larger, higher performance vehicles • DOE, Report on the First Quadrennial Technology Review, 2011

  3. Aggressive state and federal targets specify technologies or performance standards • AB32 – GHG emissions reduced to 1990 levels by 2020 • RFS2 – Specifies quantities of renewable biofuels by carbon intensity and feedstock type • Obama Administration targets – 1 million EVs by 2015, reduce oil imports by 1/3 by 2025 • From D.L. Greene and S.E. Plotkin, Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Transportation, 2011

  4. Scenario analyses explore possible futures and pathways • What mix of technologies can achieve aggressive GHG reduction or fuel economy targets? • J.C.S. Long, Chair’s Lecture: California’s Energy Future Study Results, 2011

  5. Speed, scale, standards, and segmentation matter • Speed and scale • Target timeframes heavily influence technology options • US car park takes 17 years to turn over • Hybrids first commercialized in 1997 – now still make up only about 5% of US sales • Standards • Are today’s specifications robust? • Segmentation • Increasing divergence and fragmentation • Interdependencies of seemingly parallel technologies • How will regional issues and local consumer preferences influence the evolution of technology options? Next Generation Biofuels & Advanced Engines – November 2009 Transitioning the Transportation Sector: Exploring the Intersection of Biofuels and Electric Vehicles – October 2010 • www.sandia.gov/news/publications/white-papers/

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