AMY Some concluding remarks Howard Cattle
AMY • AMY brings together some 21 regional projects plus other national and international programme contributions. But what does AMY bring us? • At one level, AMY acts to provide communication between these facilitating interactions between them • Challenge is to meld AMY into a coordinated international programme rather than a loose collection of projects/activites - on way (this meeting) • Science plan - still work to do on observation, modelling and data management issues • How will AMY be delivered - need for focussed Implementation Plan
AMY Science Plan • Science Plan identifies a wide range of science questions; classified according to timescale (diurnal -> decadal) and against a number of science foci: • Science plan objectives which emerge are focused around: • Ocean-atmosphere interaction • Land-atmosphere interaction • Improve skill in seasonal to interannual prediction of the Asian monsoon • Development of a hydrometeorological prediction system and database • Human interactions with the monsoon • SSC plus Working Groups are against observations, modelling and data management • Doesn’t yet bring a fully coordinated science approach between inputs and objectives
Classification of projects • Continental hydroclimatology; land-atmosphere interactions and weather-monsoon interactions • Impact of the Tibetan Plateau • Aerosol/cloud/radiation/water cycle interactions • Ocean-atmosphere interactions; tropical cyclones • Monsoon prediction including climate trends • Interactions between human and natural components Plus contributions from wider national/international activities 1-3 above part of land surface interactions overall. Hydromet prediction system can be added in (MAHASRI)
Classification of Projects Plus other National & International contributions
Implementation Plan strawman • Overall aims and objectives of AMY & key deliverables • Overall strategy for implementing AMY • How/do the project activities integrate? • Cross programme integrated modelling and observational programmes and data management • Links to international activities • Others…
IP - development • Finalize science plan - soon • Develop IP asap through e.g: • SSC (Sections 1, 2, 5) • Working groups (Sections 4) with feed in/interactions with: • Email science area groups (Sections 3.4) each led by SSC member against mapping of projects to existing objectives or Land surface interactions Hydroclimatology, weather Tibetan Plateau Aerosols Ocean interactions Monsoon prediction Hydromet prediction system Human interactions • Timescale - over next few months?
AMY-08 • AMY “year” 08/09 • Many projects extend beyond this • Some have main phase on later timescale (e.g CTCZ) • What is vision beyond 08/09? • Should timeframe be extended? e.g • 08-09 spin up period • 09/010 main AMY year • 010-011 consolidation phase • Logo?
End Thank you
Data management and policy • DM presentation: • Agree data policy • Set agenda for pending issues • Distributed archiving • Include data assimilation and integration projects in science plan • Start editing provisional catalogue • Start survey of data needs • Redistribution issues including timescale for science project data release • Ocean and plateau data assimilation implementation • Role of APCC - hindcasts dataset; TFSP subset; AMY08 data depository • Need discussion of modelling data archiving
Observations • Coordinated observation effort over IMY • Category 1 data - operational observations coordinate within WMO framework; build central framework - through CEOP? • Category 2 data - Scientific observations - develop catalogue approach • Need to consider land-based and ocean-based data • Through science structure, observations group needs to identify observations required to deliver science “observational convergence framework”; seek access to operational data through WCRP/WMO • Identify observational requirements for modelling for data assimilation/initialization & validation. • High resolution needed for e.g diurnal studies, parametrization development; satellite data needs to be identified • Importance of developing timetable and catalogue of observations through AMY period. Identify observational gaps (mapping), request increased observational effort through WCRP/WMO? … All requested to input (mechanism?). • QC plan and data integration -> DM plan
Data management and policy • Lot of issues identified - important area to start planning now • AMY08 complex “project of projects” • Data management plans for each project defined? • Build catalogue • Need discussion of model data archiving (e.g APCC) • Distributed system - effort for dataset integration needs to be considered • Quality checks - build on CEOP experiences; issue of spatial inhomogeneities • Password protected quick look data; set release dates for processed data; AMY participant priority • Provide example that may be valuable to AMY e.g GAME data or composite precipitation dataset? • Transfer to international data centres? Real time delivery
Modelling • Smallest group but key activity to meet objectives • Utilize AAMP, AAPC/CliPAS, TFSP seasonal prediction outputs • Organise analysis of these hindcast datasets • Organise new hindcast experiments to look at sensitivity to soil moisture fields initialization. Through soil moisture renanalysis? • Encourage modelling research (with objective 4) • Regional modelling to test parametrizations, aerosol studies etc…; hydromet prediction system • Regional modelling activities also part of individual projects - need to see how these fit together • Common approach to to initial data & validation? • Links to human interactions