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CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS for

Designed by Michael Braito Marianne Penker. CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS for. Put here your name, details of the workshop, etc. KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION. Outline. participatory process. Sustainable development by Knowledge Integration Knowledge Integration – Why and how?

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CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS for

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  1. Designed by Michael Braito Marianne Penker CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSISfor Put here your name, details of the workshop, etc. KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION

  2. Outline participatoryprocess • Sustainable development by Knowledge Integration • Knowledge Integration – Why and how? • The CROSS-IMPACT Analysis Theoretical introduction • The Cross-Impact Analysis (Step 1 – 3) Step 1: Defining the boundaries Step 2: Identifying the driving forces Step 3: Analysing the driving forces by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  3. Thinking of tomorrow for a sustainable development! The delegates at the RIO+20 acknowledged the importance of strengthening transdisciplinary cooperation in order to enhance sustainable development. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  4. Why is this so crucial for sustainable development? Each discipline is important! Concentrating on one subject is failing in seeing other aspects. Learning from each other … … to recognize the big picture. Sustainable development can only be reached if human beings work together. KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION • Decisions in the field of sustainable development have to be taken in the context of uncertain and incomplete knowledge. • A systematic integration of a range of research-informed judgments, expertise from different disciplines and experience-based knowledge is often the best way forward. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  5. Methods of Knowledge Integration • In interdisciplinary research and transdisciplinary knowledge “integration, the focus of the dialogue process is on a research question and the process aims to enable the formation of a combined judgment between the participants, with that judgment being informed by the best research evidence”(McDonald et al. 2009). • Several methods for dialogue/participatory processes exist (see McDonald et al. 2009), for instance: • Citizens’ jury, • Conference, • Delphi technique, • Open space technology, • CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  6. KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATIONWHY and HOW!?

  7. The complexity of today and tomorrow political regulatory social macro-economic regional rural techno-logical ecological etc. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker Our world, our socio-economic system is changing rapidly and unpredictable. A number of issues follow their own future path, but at the same time, they interact not only with each other but with any number of …

  8. The problem of limited points of views political regulatory social macro-economic regional These limited points of views may become a straitjacket, not allowing us to see the big picture. rural techno-logical ecological etc. To analyse complex systems we reduce the complexity. In doing this, we tend to stop gathering detail and select one path forward that seems the most likely one. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  9. Knowledge Integration – dealing with unknowns/uncertainties • Knowledge Integration by the Cross-Impact Analysis supports to: • capture the uncertainties, • highlight the issues that may have a significant impact on others, and • to study the relationships between these critical issues. Integrating knowledge from different disciplines helps “to sketch a broad spectrum of possible development options”(Penker and Wytrzens 2005). “A necessary adjunct to complexity is uncertainty”(Bammer 2006, 98). by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  10. TheCROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS

  11. CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS I “Cross-Impact methods are mostly used for analytical tasks which do not allow the use of theory-based computational models due to their disciplinary heterogeneity and the relevance of system knowledge, but on the other hand are too complex for a purely argumentative systems analysis”(Weimer-Jehle 2005, 334). “This is a technique […], taking into account the causality among relevant events, based on experts’ judgments”(Hayashi 2006, 1064). by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  12. CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS II • Fields of application • If the problem requires cross discipline analysis • If a system/research question can only be analysed qualitatively • Systematic approach • Assessing the interdependencies of the driving forces in pairs • Production of a Cross-Impact matrix as a system description (Weimer-Jehle 2010, 1) by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  13. AIMS of the CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS • Not predicting the future,but understanding the present • Developing an information framework for decision making Knowledge Integration (explicit scientific knowledge and implicit local knowledge) Following the approach of ‘intuitive logics’(Jungermann and Thuring 1987)See the sense of complexity and ambiguity in terms of possibility and plausibility. Exploring the interrelationshipsbetween multiple factors in terms of cause/effect and chronologyRealise that the possibilities are not unlimited. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  14. AIM of System Intervention • Initiate a process of understanding (future is unpredictable and unknown). • Highlight and understand possibilities for action (despite partial uncertainty). • Enhance openness for new waysinstead of moving always on the worn-out paths. • Exercise to deal with the unknown, the unforeseeable. • Identify different interests, assessments, expectations. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  15. Three steps for system analysis by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  16. CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSISSTEP 1Defining the boundaries

  17. Boundaries of the analysed system • Set the objectives. • Define boundaries and establish focus. • The objectives for the exemplary project should include the following: • Thematic framework, • Time horizon, and • Geographical scope of the project/system. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  18. CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSISSTEP 2Identifying the driving forces

  19. What are ‘driving forces’? • Driving forces are attributes of a system which are most relevant at the presentand cause changes in the system state over time (e.g. social, economic, environmental, political, and technological). • Main key factors facing the research topic • Changes in society, politics, technology etc. are often the symptomsof more fundamental transformations. • Driving forces are indicating change, but should not indicate direction or dimension. • Driving forces are NOT PROBLEMS by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  20. Methods to identify driving forces I • Identification of a MAXIMUM of 10-12 driving forces • Different methods exist: • Systemic picture (all together or as a “World Café”) • Brainstorming/Brainwriting by using cards • etc. • Leading question: • Which factors are influencing the present and might have a significant impact on the development of the exemplary system/ research question? by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  21. Methods to identify driving forces II Systemic picture (all together or as a “World Café”) by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  22. Methods to identify driving forces III Brainstorming/Brainwriting by using cards by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  23. Feedback • Integrate scientific knowledge with participants’ knowledge • Literature research • Empirical research • Field work • Interviews • Delphi Method • etc. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  24. CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSISSTEP 3Analysing the driving forces

  25. Analysis of the driving forces by theCROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS The Cross-Impact MATRIX The Cross-Impact GRID by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  26. What is the impact/influence of DF1 on DF2, …? by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  27. Identify the most active/passive driving forces by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  28. The Cross-Impact GRID by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  29. System analysis Discussion of the most actively impacting and most passively influenced driving forces. Critical assessment by using the initial reasons for the different judgements. Key questions • How do the driving forces interact? • What impact do they have on other forces? • Where and how can we intervene? by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  30. Enjoy integrating knowledge

  31. References Bammer, G., 2006. Integration and Implementation Sciences: Building a New Specialisation. In Perez, P. and Batten, D (eds.). Complex Science for a Complex World. Australia: ANU E Press, The Australian National University Australia. 95-107. Blanninga, R.W. and Reinig B.A., 1999. Cross-impact analysis using group decision support systems: an application to the future of Hong Kong. Futures. 31. 39–56. Hayashi, A., Tokimatsu, K., Yamamoto, H. and Mori, S., 2006. Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Applied Energy, 83, 1062–1075. Jungermann, H. and Thuring, M. 1987. The use of mental models for generating scenarios. In Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (eds.), Judgmental Forecasting. London: Wiley. Maack, J. 2001. Scenario Analysis: A Tool for Task Managers. McDonald, D., Bammer, G. and Deane, P., 2009. Research IntegratIon using dialogue methods. Australia: ANU E Press, The Australian National University Australia. Penker, M. and Wytrzens, H.K., 2005. Scenario for the Austrian food chain in 2020 and its landscape impacts. Landscape and Urban Planning. 71. 175-189. Weimer-Jehle, W. 2005. Cross-impact balances: A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 73, 334–361. Weimer-Jehle, W. 2010. Introduction to qualitative systems and scenario analysis using cross-impact balance analysis. Stuttgart, ZIRN. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  32. Institute for Sustainable Economic Development Department of Economics and Social Sciences BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Feistmantelstr. 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria http://www.wiso.boku.ac.at/2797.html?&L=1 Marianne Penker Expertise • Rural development • Implementation Research • Property Rights • Rural Governance • Landscape Governance • Conservation and Environmental Policy Michael Braito Expertise • Environmental economics and environmental policy • Sustainable development • Rural development • Optimisation and valuation of managerial processes • Analysis and economic valuation of societal processes

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