Winning Local Ballot Measures Building a Strategic Campaign Plan

1. Winning Local Ballot MeasuresBuilding a Strategic Campaign Plan Association of Washington Cities February, 2003 Northwest Public Affairs, LLC

2. Fundraising Strategic Considerations • Set a goal • Budget drives Strategic Decisions • Finance Chair, Committee • Lead - Large, Medium & Small Contributions • Campaign Cash flow • Who Best to Ask

3. Fundraising Best Prospects • Most Likely Orgs. & Individuals based upon Measure • Traditional Political Givers • Previous Campaign Contributors • Donors of local/state Elected Officials • Compatible Non-profits • Political Party contributors • Major Local Fundraising Events • Constituency Organizations • Business and Labor • Vendors

4. Fundraising Keep in mind • Gather Lists, Consolidate • Low Overhead, In-kind Contributions • Credit Card option • Mail with Phone Follow up (Message Reminders) • Electeds/Opinion leaders Help Make the Ask • Give Deadlines -- tied to Campaign Needs • Thanks and Ask Again!

5. Fundraising Work Plan • Most Likely Suspects • Who Best to Make the Ask? • Most credible voice(s) • Lists

6. Public Opinion Research Strategic Guide for campaign • Timing • Budget • Other issues/candidates • Ballot Title • Allies, Opponents, Up for Grabs • Credible Messengers • Geographic and demographic data • Internal Use – Expectations • Trackers

7. Public Opinion Research Sample Survey • Mood of Local Voters – Right Direction/Wrong Track • If the election were held today… • Tax sensitivity/thresh hold • Messages in support • Messages in opposition • Key elements of plan – positive and negative • Now that you know more, if the election were held today… • Geographic/Demographics

8. Public Opinion Research Information on Voters • Who responds to what message • Absentee Voters • Election Day Voters • Frequent Voters – Vote all or most of the time • Infrequent Voters – Only vote in major elections • Party Affiliation • Geographic/Demographic Information • Education • Children in Household • Labor Household

9. Research Campaign Plan • Best Reasons to Vote Yes • Best Reasons to Vote No • Timing of the election – Options

10. Strategic Guide • Timing of the Election • Voter Targets • Reaching the Voters • Greatest Assets – How to Capitalize • Greatest Liabilities – How to Overcome

11. Greatest Assets Greatest Liabilities Timing Votes Needed to Win Who – Yes, No, Und. Budget Goal Message Coalition Best Messengers Voter Contact Turnout Abs./Election Day Campaign Profile Strategic Guide Campaign Plan

12. Message Development Message is not a Slogan 1st Research 2nd Message 3rd Theme/Slogan

13. Message Development Message will win or lose a campaign • Message can give meaning and purpose or say nothing • Message can give focus or add chaos • Message can inspire and unite or tear down and divide • Message can motivate or cause complacency • Message can differentiate or make the same • Message can help or harm

14. The Seven C’s 1. Chosen 2. Clear 3. Credible 4. Compelling 5. Contrasts 6. Controlled 7. Consistent

15. WINNING Us on Us Us on Them LOSING Them on Us Them on them Message Campaign Plan

16. Targeting Purpose • Turnout Yes • Persuade Undecided • Neutralize Opposition

17. Targeting Resources • Polling data • Geographic • Demographic • Persuadables • Previous Elections – Voting Patterns • Voter File

18. Targeting Every Voter • Gender • Age (most) • Address / Household • 55-60% with Phone • Voter Frequency – Turnout History • Absentee/ Election Day Voter

19. Targeting Sample Scenario: Registered Voters 1000 Turnout Projection 40% 1000 (reg. voters) x .4 = 400 Votes Needed to Win 50%+1 400 x .5 + 1 = 201 Yes Votes Needed to Win 60% +1 400 x .6 + 1 = 241 Yes

20. Targeting Campaign Plan Votes Needed to Win Registered Voters _______ Turnout Projection 40% ______(Reg. voters) x .4 = ______ (substitute projection from County Auditor) Votes Needed to Win 50%+1 _____ x .5 + 1 = _____ Yes Votes Needed to Win 60% +1 _____ x .6 + 1 = _____ Yes

21. Targeting City of Woodland • Registered Voters • Absentee Voters • Voters with Phone Numbers • 0/4 Voters – Total • Female Voters 35-44 • 4 / 4, 3 / 4, and 2 / 4 voter with phones

22. Direct Voter Contact Purpose - Targeted Group of Voters • Voter ID – Yes, No, Undecided • Solidify Yes Votes • Persuade Undecided • Neutralize No Votes • Turn out

23. Direct Voter Contact Voter ID - Identification (Early in the campaign) • Request voter by name • Identify yourself by name, volunteer • As you may know there’s an upcoming election for • If the election were held today, Yes/No. • If undecided, do you lean Yes/No. • Short statement on message • Thank you, appreciate your time and consideration

24. Direct Voter Contact Voter Persuasion – UNDECIDEDS • 3 Pieces of Direct Mail • Call Absentee Households first • Then call election day Voter Households • Volunteer with the campaign • Key messages in favor • Re-identify – Yes, No, Still Undecided • Possible GOTV or continued persuasion

25. Direct Voter Contact Get-out-the-Vote – YES Voters (3 wks – thru elect’n) • 1-2 Pieces of Direct Mail • Absentee voters 2-3 three weeks before election. • Election Day voters – Wknd. before & Election Day • Volunteer with the campaign • Calling to remind you about election on Tuesday. • Have you mailed absentee ballot yet? • If yes, thank you.

26. Staffing & Structure Campaign Committee • Chair/Co-Chairs (1-2) • Executive Committee (4-6), Kitchen Cabinet • Steering Committee (10-50+) / Finance Committee • Endorsers – Citizens for X (100s+)

27. Staffing & Structure Staff • Campaign Manager/Director • Field/Speaker’s Bureau • Press/Communications • Administration/Volunteer Coordination • Others, depending on strategy & Volunteer Capabilities

28. Staffing & Structure Primary Responsibility • Day to Day Management – Campaign Manager, Chair/Co-chair as appropriate • Key Decisions, Strategy – Campaign Manager, Executive Committee • Fundraising, Strategic Updates – Steering Committee • Coalition Building – Endorsers

29. Timeline Key Election Dates • Measure referred to the ballot • Campaign Committee Filing with PDC • Voters Statement Due • Rebuttal Statement Due • Voters Guides Arrive • Absentee Ballots Arrive • Primary Election? • Other Major Community Events?

30. Timeline Operations • Headquarters • Staffing Plans • Fundraisers, if planned • Public Disclosure Reports Due dates • Steering Committee Meetings / Updates

31. Timeline Strategy & Research • Campaign Plan • Staffing • Public Opinion • Voter Targeting

32. Timeline Field Activities • Kick off • Campaign Events • Major Community Events • Speaker’s Bureau Opportunities • Visibility

33. Timeline Communications • Press Events & Opportunities • Debates, Voter Forums • Editorial Boards • Opinion-editorials • Letters to the editor • Paid Media? (radio/tv)

34. Timeline Voter Contact - Identification • Script Draft/Approval • Phone Capacity – Paid or Volunteer • Volunteer Recruitment • Data Collection • Voter Identification Absentee • (6-8 weeks before election, depending on #’s) • Voter Identification Poll Voter • (4-6 weeks before election, depending on #’s)

35. Timeline Voter Contact – Absentee Voters - Persuasion • Direct Mail Absentee 1 (3 weeks before election) • Direct Mail Absentee 2 (2 weeks before election) • Direct Mail Absentee 3? (end of week b/f election) • Phone Follow up Absentee (following Mail 2 or 3)

36. Timeline Voter Contact - Poll Voters - Persuasion • Direct Mail Poll Voter 1 (2 weeks before) • Direct Mail Poll Voter 2 (1 week before) • Direct Mail Poll Voter 3? (end of week b/f elect.) • Phone Follow up Poll Voter (following Mail 2)

37. Timeline Voter Contact - Get Out the Vote • Phone/Mail Combination • Get-out-the-vote Absentee 1 (2-3 weeks before election) • Get-out-the-vote Absentee 2 (1 week before election) • Get-out-the-vote Poll Voter 1 (weekend before election) • Get-out-the-vote Poll Voter 2 (election day)

38. Thank you.Good Luck!