2010 Landscape of ballot measures

1. 2010 Landscape of ballot measures Challenging Ballot Measures Before Qualification

2. Ballot Measure Landscape Themes and Motivations of the Right and Left

3. Building on 2008 Victories… • A year of change • Kicking measures off • Going after the bad guys with smarter and more aggressive tactics

4. BISC’s strategy of creating concerns about Connerly were the most concerning reason to vote no in Colorado, from post election survey research 46 sponsored by multi-millionaire Californian Ward Connerly who puts anti-affirmative action measures on the ballot for his benefit: paid over $7 M in salary and speaking fees by his two tax-exempt nonprofits that sponsored anti-affirmative action measures in CA, WA, MI, and now CO “Yes”Voters 46% 56% All voters 46 only got on the ballot because sponsors misrepresented its purpose, calling it Colorado Civil Rights Initiative, but 46 hurts civil rights by taking away equal opportunity and affirmative action programs in Colorado “Yes”Voters 41% 50% 46 would result in women and minorities being underrepresented in government jobs and at state colleges and universities in Colorado “Yes”Voters 38% 45%

5. Building on 2008 victories… • Keeping the pressure on through multiple cycles • Getting national organizations at a TABLE

6. Sizing it Up: The 2010 Climate • Lots of activity in key ballot measure states • States are the front burner for the right wing • Interest in progressive proactive issues • Movement on federal • Financial crisis is dominate • Right-wing is looking to rebrand • No one is in charge • Fissures in conservative blocks

7. Right Wing Motivations in 2010 • Political (to win back majorities in Congress) • Political (to divert money, particularly from labor from candidate races with right to work, paycheck deception, “open and clean”) • Political (create new villains – such as anti-judge, anti-trial lawyer, anti-environmentalists, anti labor) • Ideological (extremists vs. very extremists on choice; immigration; gay adoption; school choice/vouchers) • Economic (the Koch industry new anti-tax model; whatever Howie Rich decides to fund, fiscal crisis issues like payday lending, public pension issues, credit ratings) • Structural changes (redistricting, voter ID and ballot access issues, absentee voting/vote by mail, campaign spending and disclosure)

8. Issues on the horizon

9. 2009 Anti-Labor/Education Measures

10. “Save Our Secret Ballot” Threats

11. Abortion the new gay marriage?

12. Bankrupting State Government

13. Proactive Activity

14. Turnout Audiences • Obama succeeded in 2008, in part, by turning out and winning by bigger than normal margins among key parts of the progressive base • Voters under 30 • African Americans • Hispanics • Unmarried women • These voters made up a full 46 percent of the electorate in 2008, yet now represent a majority (52%) of the voting age population – and are growing rapidly as part of our population. This is a new development in American politics. Traditionally these voters have been viewed as a “minority,” but they are a majority in terms of VAP. They are still under-represented in the electorate. • Many of these voters show disturbing signs of dropping out of the 2010 electorate. Indeed, four in ten of these voters are at risk of dropping out. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

15. Potential Drop-off Much Higher Among Key Targets What are the chances that you will vote in the elections in 2010 for Congress and other offices, on a scale of 1 to 10, where10 means you are absolutely certain to vote and 1 means you are certain not to vote. 1-9 or DK on likelihood of voting on 10 point scale Data from Women’s Voices. Women Vote. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 15 |

16. Young Voters Trending Democratic Data from CNN Exit Polling and Current Population Survey (CPS) Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

17. Hispanics Trending Democratic in Recent Elections Data from CNN Exit Polling and Current Population Survey (CPS) Note that there have been some questions about whether Bush’s Hispanic numbers were over-stated by the exit polls in 2004 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18. Unmarried Women Solidly Democratic in Recent Elections Data from Democracy Corps post-election surveys in 2004, 2006, and 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

19. Proactive Ballot Measure Tables

20. Proactive ideas being tested Work and Family • Worker safety mandates • Living & minimum wage increases • Wage enforcement measures • Index minimum wage (where not done already) • Tie wages to CEO salaries • Worker privacy/free speech rights • Mandatory workers’ rights education • Unpaid leave for parents’ school meetings • Improve workers comp & unemployment benefits • Anti-union busting initiatives • Anti-outsourcing initiatives • Mandatory paid vacation days • Mandatory paid sick days • Increase damages collected by employees in wage disputes • Roll back “Right to Work” laws and other anti-worker legislation Corporate Accountability • Executive compensation limits • Limits profits from public land use • Remove or limit tax deductibility on advertising • Limit corporate political contributions • Enhanced consumer rights • Corporate liability standards • Disclosure and safety requirements, etc. • Best practice and transparency standards for contracting • Protection for whistleblowers • Tax disclosure requirements • Strict financial penalties

21. Tax & Government Spending • Millionaire Tax • Tax breaks for corporations that offer living wage and healthcare to all employees • Tax increases for corporations that do not offer a living wage and healthcare benefits • Mandatory sunset provision for all tax breaks • Tax increases to pay for specific and/or popular programs • E.g., Increased cigarette tax to fund children’s health insurance Health Care • State health insurance • Employer mandated healthcare coverage • PhRMA cost containment • Reduce COBRA cost during unemployment • Improve access to rural healthcare • Improve provider/patient ratio • Allow individuals to create healthcare pools Energy/Environment • Initiatives to encourage green buildings • Tax credits for weatherization • Incentives for green job creation • Raising renewable energy portfolio standards • Renewable energy portfolios

22. Smarter defensive campaigns ___________ + An aggressive proactive posture Our vision. Greater than the sum of its parts. Long term success