Simulation of Present-Day Climate in the Caribbean using PRECIS RCM

1. Simulation of Present-Day Climate in the Caribbean using PRECIS RCM M Mr. Arnoldo Bezanilla Marlot

2. SIMULATION OF THE PRESENT-DAY CLIMATE IN THE CARIBBEAN USING PRECIS RCM. Abel Centella Arnoldo Bezanilla Israel Borrajero Daniel Martinez Institute of Meteorology, Cuba 2 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

3. SIMULATION OF THE PRESENT-DAY CLIMATE IN THE CARIBBEAN USING PRECIS RCM. Abel Centella Arnoldo Bezanilla Israel Borrajero Daniel Martinez Institute of Meteorology, Cuba 3 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

4. OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION • What is PRECIS? • Simulating Present-Day Climate in the Caribbean using PRECIS. • How well does PRECIS represent the Caribbean Climate? • PRECIS and Tropical Cyclones. Preliminary results • PRECIS-CARIBE Online Access to PRECIS Output • What have we done, future plans. • Summary Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

5. Regional ClimateModeling (I) The main goal of regional climate models (RCMs) is to reproduce the main climatic features in complex terrain, where mesoscale forcing becomes important (Giorgi and Mearns, 1991) and coarse-resolution global climate models (GCMs) are not sufficient for assessing local climate change (Aldrian et al. 2004). Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

6. Regional Climate Modeling (II) An example of a region where present-generation GCMs are especially lacking in their ability to represent complex terrain and land-sea contrasts is the Caribbean zone. In this region, tropical and extra-tropical systems interact (Alfonso and Naranjo, 1996) andfrequently produce complex meteorological conditions. The sea-breeze circulation in islands and peninsulas favors the development of convective systems (Riehl, 1979). In such a complex meteorological situation, a high-resolution model is necessary for meaningful regional climate prediction Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

7. PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies) • A Regional Modelling System derived from Hadley Centre GCM • Providing REgionalClimates for Impact Studies • PC-based regional climate model • It can be set up and run over any area • PRECIS is freely available • It has two resolutions ~25 km and ~50 km • PRECIS is a tool for dynamical downscaling Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

8. Simulating Present-Day Climate in the Caribbean using PRECIS Quasi-observed climate PRECIS forced by ECWRF Reanalysis ERA15 (RCM ERA) PRECIS driven by HadAM3 control run (RCM CTRL) Climate Research Unit database was used as observed climate (CRU OBS) RCM ERA and RCM CTRL are identical apart from their driving data. Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

9. RCM ERA and RCM CTRL were compared with CRU OBS RCM ERA and RCM CTRL biases were also compared Temperature and Precipitation for land areas only How well does PRECIS represent the Caribbean Climate? PRECIS land sea mask

10. TEMPERATURERCM CTRL- CRU OBS

11. PRECIPITATIONRCM CTRL- CRU OBS

12. RCM CTRL- CRU OBSTemperature and Precipitation seasonal cycle for Cuba • Warm and dry biases are evident in RCM CTRL simulation • Greater biases occur over Cuba and other islands • The dry biases are more intense in summer Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

13. TEMPERATURERCM ERA- CRU OBS

14. PRECIPITATIONRCM ERA- CRU OBS

15. RCM ERA- CRU OBSTemperature and Precipitation seasonal cycle for Cuba • Warm and dry biases also exist in RCM ERA simulation • Greater biases occur over Cuba and other islands • The dry biases are more intense in summer Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

16. Partial conclusions • There consistency beetwen CTRL and ERA biases suggest the RCM model don’t capture very well some of the mesoscale process. • The significant summer dry biases observed in both simulations motivate further analysis of convective process. • Comparisons with GCM outputs are also needed to assess the improvement that PRECIS could produce. Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

17. The Frequency of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean and Mexico as show in Regional Climate Model simulations • Cyclone representation is a potential tool for: • Investigate and assess the Model ability to represent this type of event. • Investigate or project future TC behavior in the area Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

18. TCLVs detection methodology • It is designed to work with daily mean fields • On a grid of 0.44o (50 km), a point of minimum in surface pressure is sought so that the averaged pressure over a circumference of 6o (700 km) centered in the point is at least 5.5 hPa greater than in the point. • The difference between the maximum and minimum values of the wind speed in a neighborhood of 3 grid points radius (1.3o or 150 km) centered in the point of minimum pressure must be at least 40 km/h (11 m/s). • The end of the track of each individual vortex occurs when in two consecutive days, the points of two consecutive TCLV position are located at a mutual distance of more than 7o (800 km). • The above criteria were adjusted in practice by trial and error based on a detailed visual analysis of selected animated image sequences in the output of the model. Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

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20. Historical North Atlantic and East-Central North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks, 1851-2005 • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

21. Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

22. Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

23. Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

24. The method allow us to identify possible change in tropical cyclone activity, but: • More experiments are needed • Add new fields to be used in the detection criteria. • Specify the definition of TCLV based on daily means of surface parameters using the criteria defined by Walsh et al. for instant(hourly mean) observations in a limited run of the model. • Adjust a theoretical Cyclone Model to obtain hourly values of main TCLV parameters from the mean daily fields. • Validate the definition using the adjustment to climatologic data. • Analyze the dependence of TCLVs on projected temperature and wind shear projections. Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

25. PRECIS (Sharing Results) http://precis.insmet.cu/Precis-Caribe.htm PRECIS-CARIBE: Online Access to Climate Change Scenarios in the Caribbean. Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

26. PRECIS (Sharing Results) Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

27. PRECIS (Outputs) Examples for small island countries Grid results over Jamaica Grid results over Haiti Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

28. PRECIS (What have we Done) As part of a very prominent collaborative initiative between 5C, INSMET and UWI Jamaica and Barbados • 15 Years Reanalysis (1979-1993) • 2 B1 30 Years Baseline Ensembles (Control Experiments) 1960-1990 (S) • 3 A2 30 Years de future scenarios 2070-2100 (S). • B2 30 Years de future scenarios 2070-2100 (S). Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

29. PRECIS (At this moment & upcoming work) • ECHAM4 50km • Control 1960-1990 31yrs • A2 1990-2100 114 yrs • B2 1990-2100 114 yrs • ERA40 with sulphur cycle 50km • Observed 1957-2002 45yrs • SRES Control hourly with sulphur cycle 50km • 1960-1969 10 yrs • HadCM3 perturbed parameter ensemble members (50km) • 1 High & 1 Low 150 Years Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

30. PRECIS (Possibilities) • Obtain and Use our own scenarios for climate change • To share the obtained results with all the scientific community, and stakeholders. • The improvement of the Collaboration in the Caribbean • Using the outputs to feed other numeric models (Hydrological, Crops models, etc ) • The investigation of the extreme events in the future (strength, duration, frequency, season shifting, etc ) Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

31. PRECIS (Summary) • Improvements on the Precis-Caribe Web Site, Languages, outputs added for another scenarios (HadCM3-B2) and another GCM (ECHAM4 A2 and B2 scenarios). • Define whether to make daily data available. • Add some specific variables, another domain (high res Scenario for West Indias). • Work more Deeply in the analysis and validation of the outputs. ERA40 Data. Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

32. Thanks !!!! PRECIS Online Access http://precis.insmet.cu/Precis-Caribe.htm Email: precis.insmet@insmet.cu Contacts PRECIS Group in Cuba Abel Centellaabel.centella@insmet.cu ArnoldoBezanillaarnoldo.bezanilla@insmet.cu Israel Borrajeroiborajero@met.inf.cu Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007