What Is the Current State of Air Pollution?

1. What Is the Current Stateof Air Pollution? Roy L. Smith, Ph.D. US Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Research Triangle Park, NC smith.roy@epa.gov

2. Introduction • About me • Topics covered by this presentation: • Fragmentation of air pollution programs and its influence on how much we know (or don’t know) • Criteria air pollutants (“principal pollutants”) • Sources of data • Trends • Projections • Hazardous air pollutants (HAPs, or “air toxics”) • As above, but contrasted • The aging of America • Demographic shifts • Migration • Mobility • As related to health risks associated with air pollution

3. Subdividing Air Pollution: The Clean Air Act

4. What We Know: Criteria Pollutants

5. www.epa.gov/airtrends

7. EPA Criteria Pollutant Monitoring Network

14. Clear Skies: Fine Particulate Projections

15. Clear Skies: O3 Projections

16. Clear Skies: Risk Projections • Reductions in fine particles and ozone1 under Clear Skies would improve public health. By 2020, Americans would annually experience approximately: • 14,100 fewer premature deaths; (An alternative estimate projects 8,400 fewer premature deaths) • 8,800 fewer cases of chronic bronchitis; • 23,000 fewer non-fatal heart attacks; • 30,000 fewer hospitalizations/emergency room visits for cardiovascular and respiratory symptoms; • Included in this total are 15,000 fewer hospital and emergency room visits for asthma. • Included in this total are hundreds of thousands fewer respiratory symptoms and illnesses for asthmatics, including approximately 180,000 fewer asthma attacks. • 12.5 million fewer days with respiratory illnesses and symptoms, including work loss days, restricted activity days, and school absences.

18. What We Know: Hazardous Air Pollutants

21. 1999 1990 2010 2020 HAP Contributions to Tox-Weighted Emissions for Cancer 1990 1996 2020 2010

23. HAP Contributions to Tox-Weighted Emissions for Noncancer Effects

24. 1.3 ug/m3 = 1e-5 risk

27. Components of the NATANational-Scale Assessment Dose- Response Assessment Emission Air Inhalation Risk Inventory Emission Dispersion Exposure Assessment/ Development Processing Modeling Modeling Characterization (EMS-HAP) (ASPEN) (HAPEM) Comparison with Ambient Concentration Monitoring

30. Can zoom in to area of concern

32. What We Know: Demographics of Aging, and How They Influence Exposure to Air Pollution

33. http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/censr-4.pdf

34. http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/censr-10.pdf

35. http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/censr-10.pdf

36. http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-10.pdf

38. http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/censr-4.pdf

39. http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/p20-549.pdf

40. http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/censr-19.pdf

41. Summary • State-of-the-art • Air pollution programs fragmented by law and institutional history • Criteria pollutants separated from toxic pollutants • Level of knowledge varies widely: • Criteria > HAPs • Cancer > noncancer • Health > eco • Analyses and projections tend to be specific to decisions rather than general to the entire program

42. Summary • Criteria Pollutants • O3 and PM present most of the health risk • Emissions and ambient levels: • Have improved substantially over the last 10-20 years… • …despite huge growth in population, GNP, and energy use • Information quality • Vast monitoring network, > 1000 stations for most important • Annual emission inventories • Regular analyses of past AQ trends • Sporadic projection analyses that generally show substantial further improvements are attainable

43. Summary • Hazardous Air Pollutants • MACT program has decreased emissions… • ca. 3-fold by mass • ca. 2-fold by toxicity-adjusted mass • Made most gains in major and mobile sources • Emission projections show gains starting to erode by 2010 • NATA • First analysis of entire air toxics universe • Identified most important HAPs nationally (benzene, acrolein, POM, butadiene, Cr, naphthalene, chlorine, etc.) • NATA too new to determine trends • NATA not yet used for projections • First use due soon, however • Unlikely to overestimate actual exposures

44. Summary • Interaction of air pollution with aging population • More people >65 than ever before; trend continuing • Exposure to air pollution may differ because: • Different behaviors • Relocation pattern & representation in population • Tendency to live in areas of moderate air pollution • Less likely to relocate • Longer exposure durations • Less likely to leave the house • Exposure moderated less by daily activity patterns • Different gender makeup • Potentially more susceptible to health effects