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Pacific Northwest Natural Gas Market Outlook

Pacific Northwest Natural Gas Market Outlook. Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission October 10, 2007 Dan Kirschner Executive Director. 5335 SW Meadows Rd., #220 Lake Oswego, OR 97035 (503) 624-2160 www.nwga.org NWGA Members: Avista Corporation

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Pacific Northwest Natural Gas Market Outlook

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  1. Pacific Northwest Natural Gas Market Outlook Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission October 10, 2007 Dan Kirschner Executive Director

  2. 5335 SW Meadows Rd., #220 Lake Oswego, OR 97035 (503) 624-2160 www.nwga.org NWGA Members: Avista Corporation Cascade Natural Gas Co. Intermountain Gas Co. NW Natural Puget Sound Energy Duke Energy Gas Transmission Terasen Gas TransCanada’s GTN System Williams NW Pipeline

  3. Gas a Vital Part of NW Energy Scene

  4. Recent Gas Demand

  5. Forecast by Case

  6. 07 Outlook Base Demand by Sector 1.9% 2.3% 3.3%

  7. Load Composition Res: +2% Gen: +9% Ind: -11% Source: EIA, StatCan

  8. Change Continues

  9. Western CanadianSedimentary Basin Station 2 AECO Sumas Kingsgate Stanfield Malin Opal Rockies Basins NW Gas Supply NW Gas Supply Rockies Production Forecasts

  10. Supplies Flow to Demand

  11. Productive CapacitySource: Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. Bubble Tight Market

  12. Growing Demand + Flat Supply = LNG

  13. Why LNG? • Vast global reserves; no local market • Pipelines not economic (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2007)

  14. LNG enables long distance shipping • Liquefying natural gas: • Super-chilling it to -260°F • Reduces volume of gas 620 times • weighs less than half as much as H20

  15. NorthwestLNG Proposals • Oregon LNG • Jordan Cove LNG • Bradwood Landing LNG • Kitimat LNG • WestPac Terminal • Challenges include: • Local acceptance • Regulatory/Permitting • Commercial considerations: • economics/financing • takeaway infrastructure • worldwide competition • supplier commitment

  16. Benefits of Regional LNG • Supply response to climate change policies • Diversify sources of supply • Existing sources under increasing pressure • Enhance supply reliability • Preserve energy cost advantage • Gas and electric • Strategic energy asset akin to dams

  17. Extended Winter (Hi) – Low Hydro

  18. Extended Winter (Hi) – Colder Than Normal

  19. Summary • Natural gas vital part of NW energy/economic picture; • End use and generation demand growing moderately • Gas is primary option for new, large-scale generation • Climate change policies will drive additional gas use • NW is part of integrated N. American gas market; • what happens in one region affects all • Increased competition for Rockies, WCSB supplies • Supply response required to help keep market balanced • Capacity is available to serve currently projected gas loads, including generation • may contribute to growing peak vs. base load disparity • planning required to anticipate impacts on gas market, especially during peak periods

  20. 5335 SW Meadows Rd., #220 Lake Oswego, OR 97035 (503) 624-2160 www.nwga.org NWGA Members: Avista Corporation Cascade Natural Gas Co. Intermountain Gas Co. NW Natural Puget Sound Energy Duke Energy Gas Transmission Terasen Gas TransCanada’s GTN System Williams NW Pipeline

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