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The Green Cockpit

The Green Cockpit is a decision support tool developed by Significant B.V. to assist Public Transport Authorities in achieving sustainability in their operations. Originally designed for the Arnhem-Nijmegen City Region, it evaluates the optimal balance between environmental quality and costs over a 10-year concession. The tool comprehensively analyzes scenarios involving various bus types, fuel consumption, and related emissions, enabling authorities to make informed, data-driven decisions in light of political goals and uncertainties.

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The Green Cockpit

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  1. The Green Cockpit Decision support for realising sustainable public transport Significant B.V. Paul van Hooff Koen Idzenga EMTA 19 april 2013

  2. About us Significant • Formerly part of Pricewaterhouse Coopers – in 2003 management buy out • Currently about 50 researchers and consultants • Different markets: • Healthcare • Mobility – public transport • Security and Justice • Social affairs • Business management public sector • Paul van Hooff • Managing Consultant System Dynamics • Modeler of Green Cockpit • Model Building • Part-time geography teacher • Koen Idzenga • Managing Consultant Mobility • Public Transport tenders • Client-supplier relationship • Fanatic field hockey player (but low level…)

  3. Background of the Green Cockpit • Originally developed for the Arnhem Nijmegen City Region • To support the tender of the Public Transport concession (10 years contract 2012 - 2022) • Calculates ‘best ratio’ between environmental quality and costs for Public Transport Authority (PTA) • Step by step development with focus on regional issues • How can we translate (political) goals to realistic • requirements for the buses in Arnhem Nijmegen City Region?

  4. Biogas Many questions, opinions and uncertainties Electrical Technical Context Reliability Suitability Emission Costs Availability Future technical develop-ments Diesel Political wishes Budget Hydrogen Future number of passengers Commercial interests of operators Price development Tank to wheel/ well to wheel Functional or technical specifications Tender strategy

  5. The Green Cockpit …… • ...Helps PTAs to get a better understanding of the costs involved • Buses, fuel consumption, infrastructure etc • ...Shows the development in (environmental) costs for each year in each scenario (Total Cost of Ownership - TCO) • ...Enables PTA’s to compare different scenarios of different bus types • ...Can deal with ranges in values in case of uncertainties (sensitivity analysis, what if...) • ...Helps PTAs to optimize their greening transition in time • ...Is the beginning of the discussion about sustainability in public transport (support of your decision).

  6. Some modelling conventions “If a future value of a variable is uncertain, you can decide not to model it, but then you’re sure that the results aren’t correct” “Leaving out a variable that is difficult to estimate, is like giving it the only value that it doesn’t have: zero”.

  7. The Green Cockpit – an overview Feedback & optimization Characteristics techniques Characteristics concession Calculation Module (System Dynamics) Characteristics bus fleet Physical quantities Process & stakeholder management and creating support

  8. Settings in the Green Cockpit • Fuel consumption • Range per fuel type • Fuelling or charging time • Reliability Characteristics techniques Characteristics concession Time-table Route length Number of routes Route characteristics (city / region) Physical quantities Characteristics bus fleet Number of buses in city and region Prices of buses Maintenance costs Additional infrastructure e.g. charging & filling stations Emission per fuel type (Well to Wheel) such as CO2, NOx and PM10 Shadow prices for each emission type (health, plants and buildings)

  9. Importance of the process • Interests of departments (mobility, environment, economics, finance) • Dealing with lack of reliable data • Interests of operators and vehicle industry • Which data are correct and which are not? → sanity check • Data about (real) fuel consumption • Development of prices • Which risks can a PTA manage and which not? • Fuel prices? • Reliability of techniques • Technical but also a political field

  10. Results

  11. For different buses in the fleet: costs Total costs Maintenance Depreciation Fuel costs

  12. Different environmental outcomes NOx PM10 CO2

  13. Some technical details of Vensim • Software for building System Dynamics Models • Powerful ‘engine’: • checks the dimensional integrity • sensitivity analysis (e.g. Monte Carlo) • Graphical representation of the model • Interface with MS-Excel • Input in Excel: data can be changed for different scenarios • Output in Excel

  14. Any questions?

  15. Contact details Paul van Hooff Koen Idzenga paul.van.hooff@significant.nl koen.idzenga@significant.nl +31 6 4403 0083 +31 6 5361 9950 Significant B.V.Thorbeckelaan 913771 ED Barneveld The NetherlandsTelephone: +31 342 40 52 40

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