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Http://hist.umn/~rmccaa

This article explores the demographic transition paradigm, fertility transitions in Latin America, mortality transitions, and the impact of epidemics. It also discusses the theories of Malthus, Marx, and Boserup and the implications for contemporary demographics.

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Http://hist.umn/~rmccaa

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  1. Http://www.hist.umn.edu/~rmccaa

  2. Http://www.prb.org/prb

  3. PRB World Pop Sheet, 1997 (a quick lesson on hope and truth) 19975840 24 9 1.5 476,8948,036 59 3.0 19925420 26 9 1.7 417,1148,545 68 3.3

  4. Demographic transitions in historical perspective: fertility, epidemiology, and mortality The demographic transition paradigm Fertility transitions: examples from Latin America Mortality transition and the AIDS epidemic in historical perspective

  5. Malthus, Marx, and Boserupvs. the Billions Demographic transition in the contemporary world:theories, facts and trends(see handout)

  6. Three social philosophers: Malthus, Marx and Boserup • Thomas R. Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798): Population increases geometrically; subsistence, arithmetically. Poverty is the result unless there is moral restraint. • Karl Marx, Das Kapital (1867): Each mode of production has its corresponding mode of reproduction.

  7. Three social philosophers: Malthus, Marx and Boserup • Esther Boserup, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth (1965), demographic pressure (population density) promotes innovation and higher productivity in use of land (irrigation, weeding, crop intensification, better seeds) and labor (tools, better techniques).

  8. Demographic transition: phase shifts in mortality and fertility growth rate Decline A post-modern phase?--low death rates, lower birth rates, negative growth rates.

  9. I. Fertility Transition:In Historical Perspective

  10. Three fertility transitions in Latin America, compared with USA fertilitytransitions

  11. Transitions, revolutions, baby booms, and busts: Cuba, Mexico & USA fertilitytransitions baby booms baby busts

  12. Politics, fertility and transition in Mexico, 1895-1995 Revolution Family planning

  13. Cuban Revolution: Baby boom (1960-1970) and bust (1977-) baby boom baby bust

  14. Fertility decline in Latin America, 1952 - 1992

  15. Mexico’s fertility transition: 7 children in 1970 to 3.2 in 1992

  16. Age patterns of fertility: USA, 1988 and 1970 vs. Mexico

  17. Mexico’s fertility in 1971 lagged USA by a century

  18. By 1992, Mexico lagged USA by 2 - 3 decades.

  19. Fertility of married Mexican women by educational levels compared with natural fertility

  20. The educational revolution will precipitate further declines in Mexican fertility rates None Primary Secondary Post

  21. The fertility transition in China, Mexico, India, Bangladesh, and Nigeria: 1962-1995

  22. II. Epidemics:A Historical Perspective

  23. The Age of Pestilence and Famine: an example from colonial Mexico

  24. Second example, 1630-1930 (northern Mexico)

  25. III. Mortality Transition:In Historical Perspective

  26. Mortality transitions: Examples from Latin America • Earlier and faster in Argentina, Uruguay, Cuba, and Costa Rica • Later and slower in Chile, Mexico, Brazil and Peru • Slowest in Guatemala, much of Central America, and Haiti

  27. Life Expectancy, 1900-1980, 4 LA countries (unequal in 1900; now converging)

  28. The Mortality transition in Mexico:catching up with the USA

  29. Infant mortality declined from 13% in 1950 to 3% in 1992 (still more than 3 times the US rate).

  30. Does HIV/AIDS contradict the epidemiological paradigm (see Bongaarts in PDR 3/96)? • HIV/AIDS is a pandemic-- 20 million cases worldwide: 2/3rds in Africa, 20% in S & SE Asia. • AIDS deaths rates will continue to rise, reaching, by 2005, 0.3-0.4 per thousand population world-wide. • Behavioral change is the best hope; rates of increase in infection are slowing everywhere except in Asia.

  31. Conclusions: • Minimal levels of economic and social development are sufficient to initiate the fertility transition. • Modest investments in preventive public health could improve quality of life and longevity in many regions of the globe. • The demographic explosion is nearly over everywhere, except in Africa.

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