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The future of electromobility ?

Vehicle R&D at CEVT. The future of electromobility ?. Dr. Börje Grandin Director Hybrid Technologies. Legislation one driver for new CO 2 technology!. Regulations Worldwide – Technology impact. Observation: All regulations are merging and will be below 100g in the future

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The future of electromobility ?

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  1. Vehicle R&D at CEVT The futureofelectromobility? Dr. Börje Grandin Director Hybrid Technologies

  2. Legislation one driver for new CO2 technology! Regulations Worldwide – Technology impact Observation: All regulations are merging and will be below 100g in the future Conclusion: Technology for reaching low CO2 must be adopted to a global market.

  3. Fuel consumption can be reduced in 4 areas – New technology influence all 4 areas positively Fuel consumption reduction, 4 steps Product Planning 2. Using Energy Measures to improve: Reduce energy consumption of the vehicle– friction & losses Improved transmissions Downsizing ICE Test cycle for fuel consumption measurements in China and Europe 3. Energy recovery Measures to improve: • Stop-Start – Smart generator strategy • Hybrids 4. Shift away from oil based fuels Measures to improve: • Plug in Hybrids • Pure Electric vehicles • Fuel cell vehicles 1. Waste of Energy Measures to improve: • Stop-Start – ICE off during vehicle stop • Hybrids

  4. 25% P/T eff. 70g /km legal req. 95g /km legal req. Conventional technology capable… 35% P/T eff. = top performers! Volvo V40 50% P/T eff. =Very unlikely! New Technololgy needed … New technology… Do we need it? 125 100 75 g/km CO2 NED-C 50 25 0 1000 1500 2000 kg Nb! Peak efficiency of an ICE~45%, transmission ~95%  42%...

  5. Legislation one driver for new CO2 technology! Regulations Worldwide – Technology impact Observation: All regulations are merging and will be below 100g in the future Conclusion: Technology for reaching low CO2 must be adopted to a global market. We need to include a shift away from oil based fuels

  6. Could the battery vehicle be mainstream? • Running costs are lower for electric vehicle! • Assumption: • 200 Wh/km for electric vehicle and 5l gasoline per 100km • Example: 15000 km / year • 1:50 SEK / kWh & 15 SEK/l gasoline  • 6750 SEK lower cost for electric vehicle per year • How many years to pay of the battery investment? … 

  7. Could the battery vehicle be mainstream? Investment* for 25kWh: DoE target ~25kSEK 2020+ est. ~50kSEK 2015 cost ~75kSEK Difference in running costs El. Vs Gasoline 15000 km/yr 20000 km/yr *Investment with 3% cost of capital

  8. The battery vehicle as mainstream • If a 2020 DoE target price for batteries will happen it is likely • The customer will decide • However: • Recharging still limits usable range • Volume & weight will limit installed capacity • BEV will be an excellent commuter vehicle

  9. PHEV or Battery vehicle?... Or both? Electric vehicle Battery cost Plug-in Hybrid Cost Conventionell ICE Vehicle Larger tank… Driving distance ?

  10. Sizing the battery for every day driving 50km e-drive covers the daily driving for more than 50% of the population… By providing a charge station during the day, a higher percentage of the population would be covered. Published May 2013 by US NRC

  11. Higherpricedvehicleshave a lower market share Low on-cost solutions will be needed Conventional vehicle HEV vehicle PHEV vehicle Sale volume BEV vehicle Vehicle Price Even Though a PHEV vehicle is a more cost effective way of reducing CO2, Mild hybrids might be needed as it is a lower cost technology

  12. What is needed to get a largeimpact? • Reduce on-cost of electrification • Standards • Infrastructure for charging • Sustainable production of electricity

  13. Reduce on-cost of electrification Technology breakthrough in battery or continuous energy transfer • Target ~1000sek/kWh for 2020 for 10kWh battery pack Integrated solutions to reduced complexity of systems • Combine all power electronics • Combine electric motor & power electronics • Integrated electric motors in transmissions Lower cost system components • Electric distribution system, cables connectors etc.. • Radiators and heat exchangers should be standard • Low cost internal combustion engines Issuer: [Name] [CDS-ID]; [Organisation]; [Name of document]; Security Class: [Proprietary]

  14. Electric vehicle Plug-in Hybrid Cost Conventionell ICE Vehicle Driving distance ? Cost for Future power train? Electric vehicle Battery cost Plug-in Hybrid Cost Conventionell ICE Vehicle Driving distance ? 99010 B. Grandin, VCC EPS Strategy

  15. Conclusions • Costs of electrification will come down • When electrification on-cost is in a range were first owners will have a return of investment, electrification will be mainstream! • PHEV and BEV will have different users • BEV: Short distance commuting • PHEV: Short distance commuting + occasional long distance • We will see both PHEV and BEV in the future

  16. CEVT organisation

  17. Current market situation • Market is increasing! • China is still not moving… • (However strongly motivated) • Japan mature • US rising • EU still lagging..

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