Will Banning ICE Vehicles Reduce Pollution?

1. Will Banning ICE Vehicles Reduce Pollution? Itsik Sapir1, Michael Ben Haim1 and Doron Greenberg2 1Department of Mechanical Engineering and Mechatronics, Ariel University. 2 Department of Economics and Business Administration, Ariel University.

2. Outline • Frequent Government Announcements of ICE Proscription • The Small Vehicle Market Today and the Availability of an Electric Transportation Option • The Natural Oil Refining produces • The “Ban Scenario” and its Outcomes • Electricity Generation Annual Growth Vs. Vehicle Fleet Mileage Growth • External Costs of Transportation ICE Vs. EV

3. Government proscription of ICEs in small vehicles is rapidly spreading – from California to India. While such announcements are frequent, the legislation is rare and mostly does not exist. On the other hand, air pollution in densely urban areas cannot be reduced to sufficient levels without significant change in transportation air pollution [1-2 and references within]. [1] Kalghatgi, G. T (2015). [2] Yang, Christopher, David McCollum, Ryan McCarthy, and Wayne Leighty. (2009):

4. The small vehicle market today 21 fully electric vehicles (EV) and 28 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), were examined. We have found the following:

5. The small vehicle market today

7. There is a wide range of fully electric vehicles (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). For EV we have found an average range of 349 km with RMS of 163 km, and for PHEVs we have found an average range of electric propulsion of 50 km with RMS of 40 km.

8. Hence, the availability of an electric transportation option for metropolises already exists. Therefore, there is a great probability that EVs or PHEVs will soon take over the small vehicle sector.

9. Every unit mass of natural oil used for refining produces(*) about: 45% of gasoline 25% of diesel 9% jet fuel and other products such as asphalt, lubricants, heavy fuels, etc. *while using cracking options available today

10. If there will be a dramatic reduction of gasoline consumption in those countries that will ban ICEs from operating in metropolises or ICE imports and production (referred to as "ban scenario"), this will lead to two main outcomes: Lower price of gasoline fuel Higher price of every other product of oil refining. The reasons are rather simple concepts of supply and demand.

11. One more obvious outcome in this "ban scenario" is that the total mileage of the vehicle fleet will continue to grow as before due to modern lifestyles. Therefore, the energy supply source to the vehicle fleet should grow to meet the increasing demand. While electricity generation annual growth rate is under 0.3% for North America, the vehicle fleet mileage has grown by 2.2% per year.

12. Electric power plants will consume more of their energy source in the optimistic scenario that vehicle charging will occur mostly at low electricity consumption times (usually midnight till sunrise), or will have to expand peak production rate in the pessimistic scenario that vehicle charging will occur at all times of the day and night. In both of these cases, power plants will consume more of their energy source and increase the demand for it.

13. In this talk we will assess the impact of those suggested regulations and scenarios on the fuel market, and offer some solutions that will keep the market as stable as possible – even if the "ban scenario" or high market penetration of EV will ever occur.

14. First we will assess the impact of "ban scenario“ on cost of air pollution by using "Update of the handbook on external costs of transport." DG MOVE (2014). We used an average constant as car gasoline (petrol) for all engine sizes and for urban and suburban roads (metropolises; APC = Air Pollution Costs)

15. For PHEVs, we used 2 different constants: Where is the Air Pollution Costs for electric propulsion only, while electricity is produced in a power plant which has 80% efficiency, 90% efficiency for electric delivery, 85% efficiency of battery charging, and 95% efficiency of EV engine. Hence,

16. is valid only for the first 50 km, since the average range of electric propulsion for PHEVs only was found to be 50 km. For the range above 50 km, we estimated to be 30% less than the ICE APC (), since hybrid vehicle fuel consumption is 30% lower than ICE in the same conditions. Hence,

17. Air pollution costs of vehicles by mileage: Option 1 ICE; Option 2 PHEV initially only electric till 70 km, and then Hybrid mode; Option 3 EV.

18. Our recommendations for policymakers 1. Penetration rate of EVs and PHEVs should be further encouraged taking into account the dramatic possible reduction in air pollution costs and public health.

19. Our recommendations for policymakers 2. The electricity generation growth rate should be enlarged to cope at least with the mileage growth rate.

20. Our recommendations for policymakers 3. Charging of vehicles should be monitored and regulated to be carried out at low electric consumption times to avoid high electric power peaks.

21. Our recommendations for policymakers 4. Gasoline price reduction as a high probability scenario should translate into carefully monitored and regulated production rates (and import rates) of gasoline to allow for reduction of air pollution costs.

22. Will Banning ICE Vehicles Reduce Pollution? Itsik Sapir1, Michael Ben Haim1 and Doron Greenberg2 1Department of Mechanical Engineering and Mechatronics, Ariel University. 2 Department of Economics and Business Administration, Ariel University.