World Meteorological Organization

1. World Meteorological Organization Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction By Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief, Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme

2. We cannot avoid hazards

3. …but we can Prevent Them from Becoming Disasters Source: World Resources Institute

4. Agenda • Impacts of Weather-, Water- and Climate-Related Extreme Events • Reducing / Managing Risks of Disasters • Benefits of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services to Disaster Risk Reduction • Assessing Capacities, Requirements and Priorities at National and Regional Levels • WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme Action Plan

5. Impacts of Weather-, Water- and Climate-Related Extreme Events

6. Number of Disasters (1980-2005) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc Nearly 90% of disasters are related to hydro-meteorological hazards.

7. Loss of Human Life (1980-2005) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium Nearly 70% of loss of life are related to hydro-meteorological hazards.

8. Economic Losses (1980-2005) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium Nearly 75% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards.

9. 90% of Disasters are Hydro-Meteorological(Number of Events, 1980-2005) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

10. Regional Distribution of Natural Disasters (Loss of life, 1980-2005) Heatwave: 50 000 Earthquake: 30 000 Windstorms: 230 000 Earthquake: 205 000 Tsunami: 60 000 Flooding: 40 000 Windstorms: 30 000 Epidemics/famine: 260 000 Windstorms: 40 000 Landslides: 15 000 Flooding: 45 000 Drought: 500 000 Earthquake: 155 000 Epidemics/famine: 120 000 Tsunami: 170 000 Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

11. Regional Distribution of Natural Disasters (Economic Losses in billion USD, 1980-2005) Flooding: 69 Windstorms: 39 Earthquake: 50 Flooding: 194 Flooding:8 Windstorms: 30 Windstorms: 90 Earthquake: 10 Drought: 3 Earthquake: 170 Earthquake: 11 Wild Fires: 18 Flooding: 23 Drought: 5 Flooding: 3 Windstorms: 3 Drought: 11 Earthquake: 9 Tsunami: 4 Windstorms: 14 Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

12. Conclusions from IPCC WG II (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability)

13. Climate Change and Disaster Management

14. WMO Scientific and international research Programmes - Advancing the knowledge of natural hazards and their changing patterns Northern AtlanticOscillation La Niña Pacific Decadal Oscillation

15. Economic Losses are on the Way Up Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

16. While Casualties related to Hydro-Meteorological Disasters are Decreasing Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

17. Weather-, Water- and Climate-Related Disasters Impact across many Sectors, Setting Back Socio-Economic Development by Years if not Decades Energy Water Resource Management Food security Transport Industry Health

18. Reducing / Managing Risks of Disasters

19. What do we Mean by Risk ? Hazard Vulnerability Risk Intensity HIGHERRISK Vulnerability Frequency

20. Financial tools • Insurance • Weather derivatives • Cat bonds Sectoral planning Early Warning Systems Emergency Preparedness planning Education and training • Historical hazard data and analysis • Changing hazard trends • Vulnerability assessment • Risk quantification Disaster Risk Management Involves a Wide Range of Decisions and Actions Disaster Risk Management Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer

21. Need for Partnerships and Coordination Among Different Players

22. Need for Effective and Harmonized Governance, Organizational and Operational Mechanisms

23. Shifting Disaster Risk Management from Reaction to Prevention • Traditionally, disaster risk management approach has been focused on emergency response and recovery measures World Conference on Disaster Reduction (WCDR)168 countries adopted Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) Kobe, Japan, January 2005 • Shifting disaster risk management to a more comprehensive approach, involving • prevention • preparedness • contingency planning • emergency response and recovery measures.

24. Benefits of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services to Disaster Risk Reduction

25. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services • Provide products and services, 24/7 • Meteorological, hydrological, climate and hazard information and mapping • Early Detection, Forecasts and Warnings (next hour to climate time scales) Severe storms, tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons), storm surges, floods, cold spells, heat waves, droughts, forest fires, locust swarms, etc…

26. Return on Investment in Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services : 10 to 1 WMO Secretary-General, Madrid, 19 March 2007 Building capacities of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services is an investment toward national development.

27. WMO Scientific and international research Programmes - Advancing the knowledge of natural hazards and their changing patterns Northern AtlanticOscillation La Niña Pacific Decadal Oscillation

28. WMO Coordinated Networks in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction:Observation & Communication Coordinated Satellite Activities Global Observing System Global Telecommunication System

29. Regional Coordinated Networks in Support of Early Warnings, Specialized Services and Training

30. Example of Regional Cooperation: WMO Global Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System Regional cooperation (6 Regional Centres) in support of national tropical cyclone early warning systems

31. Supporting National Capacities for Disaster Risk Management 24 hours a day, everyday of the year, in every country National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Needs, requirements, Feedback Products and Services

32. Contributions of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to Risk Identification • Availability of historical and real-time hazard databases • Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies • Severity , Frequency, Location, Timing • Statistical analysis of historical data • GIS/GPS mapping • Probabilitic climate models – Forward looking trend analysis • Emerging technologies (factors in changing patters due to climate variablity and change)

33. Contribution of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to Risk Reduction • Input into sectoral planning (zoning, development, etc) • Early warning systems • Probabilistic forecasting and warnings from next hour to longer climate timescales • Integration of risk information into warning messages • Communication and dissemination • Partnerships, joint planning and joint training with national agencies responsible of emergency preparedness and response • Meteorological Services in support of pre- and post-disaster response and relief operations

34. Contribution of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to Risk Transfer • Crop / flood insurance • Agricultural and drought derivatives Government Private sector products provider example Insurance Weather derivatives Catastrophe bonds • Insurance for property and casualty • Micro-insurance • Weather derivatives • Catastrophe bonds forhurricanes

35. Assessing Capacities, Requirements and Priorities at National and Regional Levels

36. Global Survey of Scientific and Technical Capacities in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction Systematic Assessment of Capacities, Requirements and Priorities • By country groupings: • Hazards affecting the countries • Role of National Meteorological Services for disaster risk reduction • Capacities to deliver products and services in support of disaster risk reduction • Challenges, requirements and opportunities • At regional level: • Regional strategy for disaster risk reduction • Opportunities for partnerships

37. Responses to the WMO Country-Level DPM Survey 44/48 92 % 18/22 82 % 25/34 74 % 10/12 83 % 14/19 74 % 24/52 54 % 139 out of 187 Members (74 %) responded Least developed countries: 25/50 50 % Developing countries: 85/137 54 %

38. Major Hazards Affecting the Countriesfrom the Country-Level Survey

39. Common Challenges for Disaster Risk Reduction Governance: • Demonstrating socio-economic benefits of prevention measures Organizational coordination: • Partnerships, definition of roles and responsibilities of every stakeholders Technical: • Telecommunications, internet access, computer hardware and software • Observing networks development and sustainability • Hazard data: data management, methodologies for data rescue, quality assurance, statistical analysis of hazard characteristics and mapping • Specialised forecasting services in support of risk reduction Education and Training: • Technical training and capacity development • Joint multi-disciplinary training with multiple agencies • Public outreach programmes Capacities are highly variable from country to country

40. WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme Action Plan

41. WMO Mechanisms to Support Members' Scientific and Technical Capacities Thematic Regional 8 Technical Commissions 2 World Meteorological Centres (WMC) Basic Systems (CBS) Instruments and Methods of Observations (CIMO) Hydrology (CHy) Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM) Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) Climatology (CCl) 6 Regional Associations (RA) Members' National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) 40 Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres (RSMC) 10 Programmes Applications of Meteorology (AMP) Atmospheric Research and Environment (AREP) Education and Training (ETR) Hydrology and Water Resources (HWR) Regional (RP) Technical Cooperation (TCO) World Climate (WCP) Space (WSP) Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DPM) World Weather Watch (WWW) 30 Regional Meteorological Training Centres (RMTC) PARTNERS

42. WMO DRR Programme Vision: Enhanced contributions of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services • For protection of lives, livelihoods and property • Through strengthening of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services technical capacities and cooperation in disaster risk reduction • At national to international levels

43. Strategic Foundation Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (World Conference on Disaster Reduction, Jan 2005) WMO Strategic Plan 2008-2011 (Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts) Strategic Goals of WMO in Disaster Risk Reduction

44. WMO Strategic Goals for DRR • Strengthening and sustainability of early warning systems • Analyzing and providing hazardinformation for risk assessment • Delivery of timely and understandable warnings and specialized forecasts -- driven by user requirements • Integration of NMHSs' products and services in disaster risk reduction, • Strengthening WMO/NMHS cooperation and partnerships at national to international level with disaster risk reduction organizations • Public outreach campaigns

45. Linking DRR Strategic Goals to Action Implementation through regional and national projects, with following end results: • Modernized NMHSs systems. • Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems. • Strengthened hazard analysis and risk assessment capacities. • Strengthened cooperation of NMHSswith civil protection and disaster risk management agencies. • Trained NMHS • Sustained capacities over time • Enhancedawareness ministerial and public

46. Examples of DRR Crosscutting Projects initiated in 2007 Other projects are also being considered for 2008-2011

47. (c) New TechnicalGuidelines (a)Governance, Organizational Coordination and Operational Processes Disaster Preparedness and Response Systems and Crisis Management Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems:Deliverables (1/2) (b)Cost-BenefitsAnalysis D A T A Warnings, specialised forecasts, bulletins and other services Protection of lives, livelihood and property Media Internet Internet SMS Other

48. Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems:Classification of Warnings to be Addressed (2/2) Early Detection, Monitoring and Warning Services Develop hazard monitoring and early warning services Type I Type II Type III Hazard under mandate of other agencies but NMHS contribute e.g. locust, heat-health and other epidemics, volcanic ash transport, man-made hazards Hazard fully under the mandate of NMHS e.g. strong winds, strong rainfall, snow/ice, hail, tropical cyclone Hazard under joint mandate of NMHS and other agencies e.g. floods, air pollution, etc. Level of coordination between NMHS and other agencies

49. Severe Weather Forecasting Initiated in 2006 in Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania and Zimbabwe Tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall, strong wind In 2008, will expand to other countries in the region and involve the national civil security services

50. Global Flash Flood Warning Systems To develop flash flood warning capabilities, in priority in developing Countries with little resources. Countries: 20-25 countries in Central America (2007), South East Asia (2007), Southern Africa (early 2008), Central Asia - Middle East (later part of 2008)