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ChemWx Briefing Based on UIOWA, NCAR, NRL and GMAO Forecasts

ChemWx Briefing Based on UIOWA, NCAR, NRL and GMAO Forecasts. Compiled by: Mary Barth Louisa Emmons David Peterson Pablo Saide Arlindo da Silva. SEAC4RS Aircraft Campaign Prepared on 8/17/2013. “ Current Conditions ”. Aerosols Friday 8/16. clouds. aerosols. Current Fire Activity.

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ChemWx Briefing Based on UIOWA, NCAR, NRL and GMAO Forecasts

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  1. ChemWx Briefing Based on UIOWA, NCAR, NRL and GMAO Forecasts Compiled by: Mary Barth Louisa Emmons David Peterson Pablo Saide Arlindo da Silva SEAC4RS Aircraft Campaign Prepared on 8/17/2013

  2. “Current Conditions”

  3. Aerosols Friday 8/16 clouds aerosols

  4. Current Fire Activity • Several ongoing large fires and recent pyroconvection • Many new fires! • Large-scale smoke transport is still occurring…

  5. Current Fires Past 24 hrs (Some of the Largest): Primary smoke producers

  6. Biomass Burning CO and Aerosols Forecsts for Monday 8/19

  7. CO at 700 hPa Monday 8/19 at 18Z

  8. Aerosol on Monday

  9. Flexpart Trajectories from Idaho fires – mostly going eastward Between 5-10 km altitudes 24 hr trajectory injected at 3-7 km, ending 08-19 1800UTC 24 hr trajectory injected at 3-7 km, ending 08-19 1800 UTC at 44N 48 hr trajectory injected at 3-7 km, ending 08-19 1800UTC

  10. 24 hr trajectory injected at 3-7 km, ending 08-19 1800UTC Flexpart trajectories released 9-11 km altitude ending 08-19 1800 UTC 48 hr trajectory injected at 3-7 km, ending 08-19 1800UTC

  11. Southeast US

  12. Isoprene occurring throughout SE US WRF-Chem in AR-MO is 5-10 ppbv at 925 mb MOZART tracer over 1 ppbv Models not consistent south MO, AL, GA, consistent otherwise Isoprene 925mb 18UTC Monday 8/19 at 18Z

  13. Mon 8/19 Birmingham plume Main plume headed northward Lofted to 4km and higher 34N 87W

  14. Mon 8/19 Plumes from coastal cities carried inland.

  15. NAM

  16. Upper Troposphere: Both PBL and ST air over southern and SW US WRF-chem CO at 200 hPa At 08-19 1800 UTC WRF PBL tracer at 12 km WRF PBL tracer 8-14 km WRF ST tracer at 12 km

  17. Mon 8/19 Convected tracers SE U.S. at 300 hPa -- a mix of ocean, biogenic and anthropogenic tracers

  18. Outlook

  19. Smoke/Aerosol Forecast View slide for animation!!!

  20. Summary • Fires • Large fires will still be burning in the western CONUS, especially in Idaho • Fire weather conditions will remain favorable for growth • Convection potential will decrease the central CONUS • Southeast US • Temperatures still below climatology on Monday, warming up by Wednesday • NAM • Both PBL and Strat air over southern and SW US • SE U.S. at 300 hPa -- a mix of ocean, biogenic and anthropogenic tracers

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