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Load Forecasting Methodology Forum Update for the July 6, 2006 TAC Meeting

Load Forecasting Methodology Forum Update for the July 6, 2006 TAC Meeting. Historical Mean Average Percent Error. Historical Mean Average Percent Error. During 2005 the MTLF was being enhanced and tuned. April 17 9.79% 8.52%.

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Load Forecasting Methodology Forum Update for the July 6, 2006 TAC Meeting

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  1. Load Forecasting Methodology Forum Update for the July 6, 2006 TAC Meeting

  2. Historical Mean Average Percent Error

  3. Historical Mean Average Percent Error • During 2005 the MTLF was being enhanced and tuned

  4. April 17 9.79% 8.52% • The new MTLF was put into production in late February • The old MTLF was put back into production in early May

  5. Summary of May 31, 2006 Load Forecasting Forum Discussion • Approximately thirty-five attendees • AREVA explained and answered questions regarding their Regression model • ERCOT explained how the model is utilized by RPRS and monitored during the day • ERCOT is currently utilizing a 1 STDEV adder to mitigate the risk of under forecasting. This adder is 1800 MW • 1 STDEV will statistically improve the odds of not under forecasting from 50% to 84%

  6. Future Development • AREVA will develop a new Coast (Houston) & North Central (Dallas) model • AREVA will enhance the model to allow input from multiple load forecast models. • ERCOT is analyzing a separate Neural Network load forecaster.

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