A “Warfighter” Perspective

1. A “Warfighter” Perspective Dennis K. McBride, Ph.D., CPE CAPT, MSC, USN (Ret.) Visiting Professor, Modeling & Simulation Institute for Simulation & Training University of Central Florida XMSF Strategic Opportunities 6 September 2002

2. The Problem “That’s not my problem.”* “I didn’t say all those things I said.”+ * Any Navy (DoD, USG) Official + Yogi Berra

3. Scientific Article Test Dev Y Test Valid Adequate Force ? Adequate Force ? Adequate Force ? 6.1 6.2 6.3 N FrontEndAnalysis Y Train Simulator Dev N MILSTD 1472 Equipment Re-Design Y MILH 46855 N Mission Accomplished The Algorithm Select

4. Exemplar: Just in time training

5. The “Warfighter” Redefined for the New Century: D I E M Diplomacy Intelligence Economics Military

6. Evolutionary Environment of Ancestry Present Pliocene Pleistocene 4 MYA400-500 cc Aferensis 2 MYA600-700 cc Habilis 1 MYA900-1100 cc Erectus 100K1350 cc Modern 3x increase in brain volume, mass >3x increase in volumetric brain power “Folding” provides continued geometric increase in brain power

7. Brain Growth DataFor Hominidae Source: McHenry, 1994

8. Estimates of Human Processing Capabilities Filtering Algorithms Process Sensory Neural Coding Cognitive To Perm. Store % Filtered ∞ 0.003 0.000005 0.04 % Orig. Filtered -- -- .0000000016 .0000000014 Flow (Bits/Sec) 1 Billion 3 Million 16 0.7 Only 1.6 x 10-9of data bombarding the operator used in real time! Source: Steinbuck, 1962

9. Neuropsychological Sex Differences More brain volume More asymmetry More white matter Larger amygdala Larger inferior parietal lobe Seasonal fluctuation in testosterone Greater aggressive behavior Better spatial skills Less asymmetry More gray matter, density Larger caudate Larger hippocampus Larger pallidum Larger cingulate sulcus More hormonal cyclicity Better verbal skills fMRI mapping is just beginning Conclusion: We are learning more about differences

10. Today’s Function and Form Reptilian Brain Paleomammalian Brain Neocortical Brain Respiration… Memory, Discrimination, Emotion… Associative Reasoning…

11. Mr. Phinneas Gage’s railroad spike The Prefrontal Cortex What do engineers use for birth control? Why did the golfer wear two pairs of pants? Problem solving preparation (Carter, et al.) Dorsolateral prefrontal cortex Emotion processing (Adolphs, et al.) Right hemisphere prefrontal cortex Object categorization (Freedman, et al.) Lateral prefrontal cortex “Theory of the mind” Prefrontal lobes, left amygdala Executive control – switching (Rubinstein, et al.), simulation Prefrontal cortex, parietal lobes

12. Information & Knowledge • Effects of information and knowledge will be revolutionary. DoD has not fully exploited today's IT. This will happen, but the next wave of IT will be as difficult and expensive to adopt as today's • DoD will get most IT from commercial sector. But, adaptation and special needs must be funded by DoD • Software development and maintenance must improve • Data validation problems must be solved • Need to improve the science of simulation • Must solve DoD’s IT workforce problems

13. Information & Knowledge • Information and knowledge systems are vital for: • Information superiority • Coordination of organizations and operations that are progressively more: • Flat • Flexible • Smaller • Widely dispersed • Joint & Interagency • Coalition-oriented • Precision, long distance fires

14. Information & Knowledge Sensors will improve and proliferate • Performance to increase, cost to drop (e.g., uncooled IR) • Broader spectrum coverage (e.g., Dog’s Nose) • Individual collectors to huge arrays • In-situ processing – Information, rather than data • Infrared focal plane arrays obsolete much of our IR countermeasure capabilities • Robotics – UAVs, mini- micro-, and eventually nanobots • Thousands of networks replenishing military databases and cross feeding a variety of perspectives

15. Information & Knowledge Hardware and Processing technologies will improve in speed, power, memory, and storage capacity In 15 years chips will be about 15K more capable than today’s (24 hour task in 1 hour) without breakthroughs • New Silicon production techniques Vs new materials • Next generation processors? Anything that counts! • Optical Computing: Electronics will yield to the “Optical Age” • Quantum Computing (e.g., Spintronics) • DNA computing • Parallel Processing: Needs new software concept! • Storage: GMR 1 CD may eventually have the storage capacity of 1,000 CDs, providing all information needed for an entire mission

16. Information & Knowledge Software technologies and approaches must change Problems … • Excessively long delivery times • Failure of large, complex software codes • Information assurance/security • Considerable supply from foreign sources • Challenged by large amounts of information • Creation and maintenance “If I were to select the most critical R&D need today, it is in software tools and management techniques. Almost every system we develop involves the dominant use of software, and many of the problems we face stem from software issues. This is an area where we need long- range Research and Development efforts to develop new technologies for future systems; and short-range management approaches (often those being applied in commercial industry).” Jacques Gansler’s Opening Statement to the HASC, 3/1/2000.

17. Information & Knowledge … And solutions: • Better software through OOP??????? • AI: High expectations, disappointing results • Two ways to give machines “common sense” • Provide background info • Teach to learn • Benefits include: • Data/information management – “Wisdom from data” • Reduce choices (Choosing your TV programs?) • Tireless, “Human-like” associates • Robotic self-reinvention

18. Information & Knowledge Communications will be ubiquitous, autonomous, secure, broadband to distribute increasing information • Fiber optics and other technologies will enable BOD to be reached in hard-connected systems • Wireless connections to moving stations to remain a challenge • Improved smart wave-forms will be developed for all operations • Internet. By 2003, Internet use will almost double, will be an even more complex, reliable, and secure system

19. Chronology of IT x Psychology 1000 1640s – 1840s 1900s 2000 2010 – 2020 2025 2050 Mech. Clocks (Aristotle) (Egypt, map) Pascaline Liebniz computer Babbage engine Ada Lovelaceprogrammer Boolean logic Descartes Locke Berkely Hume Mill Wundt Mendel Galton Darwin Explosive growth -Electrical-Electronics-Computing-Communication Gestaltism Behaviorism Ethology Evolution Cognitivism Artificial Intel. Neural Nets Pentium 32-bitWWW ubiquitousPDA ubiquitous1BIPS@300MHZTouch screensVoice interactiveFace recognitionE-commerce ­Wireless comm ­ Psychobiology Learning Theory $1K=1T/calc/secEmbedded comp.Wireless » wiredBiocomputingSpeech recog ubiqIntelligent tutoringReliable transla.Orbital sensing Sociobiology $1K=10 brainsComputers ubiqui.3-D displaysSpeech>>manualVirtual presenceVisual « auditoryVirtual transactorsOrbital ® personal Biology $1=1 brainSensory implantsDirect neural pathsAgent learning, entrepreneuringAgent>human in- teractionAll-sensor comm.Machines think they are consc.Orbital«personal Bioengineering Based on multiple sources including Ray Kurzweil

20. Augmented Cognition Moore’s Law Decade of the Brain fMRI Cognitive Revolution

21. Objective 1, 2, or 3 Order of Magnitude Improvement in Net Human-Machine Information Capacity: a Symbiotic Marriage Symbiotic Marriage Digital Computation Networking Memory AugCog: Improved Human Performance Capability Biological intelligence is at a relative standstill. Human Time This Will Improve and Enhance the Quality of Military Decision Making

22. Computer Power and Networking • Computers will continue to follow Moore’s Law • Speed and memory double every eighteen months (ex: terraflop, petaflop and computers run on light) • Bandwidth has increased speed and sending capacity for all users • Programming has completely changed in the last 15 years and will continue to change • Neural networking, based on brain, function may increase capacity of computers • Knowledge and information may become so abundant it will impede our ability to learn

23. Income gaps follow knowledge gaps Americans as a whole are well-educated but many are still unprepared for work Technology has not been able to bridge the education gap in K-12 Learning in the future will be reorganized to meet the needs of the ever-changing worker Predictors of success in work and school: Socio-economic status Graduation rates fall along racial lines IQ testing, regardless of education level Trainability

24. Trainability • Digital technology will revolutionize the practice of teaching and training • There is a good possibility learning will drive technology • More is spent on learning than on the movie industry each year in the U.S. • Three Major types of training: • Organizational • Learner-driven • Technology-mediated

25. Trends in Organizational Learning • Reduce gap in product-service time • Need for globalization • Ability to extend instructor impact online • Business and education units should work together • Minimize non-instructional cost (technology should reduce cost) • Desire for different types of learning • Need performance support in training • Choices in pricing, assessment and class selection

26. Learner-Driven Workers have good tools for learning at home-put them to use Learning independent of time and place Multi-modal, multi-lingual individualized training “Learnbots” will help decide what to learn and how to learn Need for “coaching” rather than “sage on the stage” teaching Technology-Mediated Open-architecture, adaptable devices and authoring tools Standard and speedy bandwidth Virtual libraries New pedagogy More accessible tutors Substantive content Trends in Learner-Driven and Technology-Mediated Learning