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ITES/BPO – Opportunity to move up the value chain?

ITES/BPO – Opportunity to move up the value chain?. Presentation at iTECH 2004. January 13, 2004.

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ITES/BPO – Opportunity to move up the value chain?

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  1. ITES/BPO – Opportunity to move up the value chain? Presentation at iTECH 2004 January 13, 2004 This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey & Company. This material was used by McKinsey & Company during an oral presentation; it is not a complete record of the discussion.

  2. Demand side forces • BPO total revenues- India example* • $ billion • Encouraging track record of early movers • Demanding U.S market environment • Successful track record of I/T offshoring 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 Supply-side enablers 1.0 • Telecom costs down by 90% in the last 3 years; world-class reliability • Over 2.5 million low-cost talented workers in countries such as India and Philippines • Emergence of a credible vendor community 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1992 1996 1999 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003E 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 CONTEXT: BUSINESS PROCESS OFFSHORING HAS EXPLODED IN THE LAST FEW YEARS… Source: Gartner; Dataquest; Aberdeen group; McKinsey analysis

  3. 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 …BUT HAS ALSO CREATED GREAT ANXIETY IN PRIMARY MARKETS • “Tech jobs leave U.S. for India, Russia. Who’s to blame?” • – July 2003 • “3.3 million U.S. service jobs to go offshore by 2015” • – November 2002 • “American legislators are accusing India of stealing jobs” • – June 2003 • “America’s pain, India’s gain” – January 2003 • U.S. House Sub-business Committee • “Is your job next?” – February 2003 • “Can America Lose These Jobs and Still Prosper?” – July 2003

  4. Will the BPO phenomenon plateau out in the next few years? • Even if it survives, moving up the value chain will be difficult and will take several years? • Value chain moves will be the domain of captives because the trust required is too high? 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 IN THIS CONTEXT, SEVERAL DOUBTS HAVE ARISEN ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTAL LONGEVITY AND EVOLUTION OF BPO AS AN INDUSTRY

  5. Will the BPO phenomenon plateau out in the next few years? • Even if it survives, moving up the value chain will be difficult and will take several years? • Value chain moves will be the domain of captives because the trust required is too high? 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 IN THIS CONTEXT, SEVERAL DOUBTS HAVE ARISEN ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTAL LONGEVITY AND EVOLUTION OF BPO AS AN INDUSTRY

  6. 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 1. OFFSHORING ACTUALLY GENERATES GREATER VALUE FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 1.45-1.47 0.45-0.47 $1.00 0.67 0.33 • . . . deliversvalue to India . . . • . . . brings returnsto U.S. . . . • . . . creates new value from re-employing U.S. labor* . . . • . . . and makes the global pie that much bigger • $1 previouslyspent in U.S.,now offshored to India . . . • Taxes ($0.04) • Revenues ($0.20) • Local suppliers ($0.09) • Cost savings ($0.58) • Goods sold ($0.05) • Profits from Indian ventures ($0.04) * Estimate based on historical U.S. reemployment trends Source: McKinsey Global Institute

  7. 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 INDIA CAPTURES 33 CENTS FROM EACH DOLLAR OF SPEND OFFSHORED BY THE U.S. • Value accrued from $1 of U.S. spend offshored1 • Dollars; 2002 0.33 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.10 0.10 • Labor • Profits retained in India • Suppliers2 • Central govern-ment3 • State govern-ment4 • Total value accrued to India • Offshoring sector 1 Estimated using the India offshored services industry case 2 Includes revenue accrued to the supplier industries less sales taxes, income taxes to employees and corporate taxes 3 Includes income tax from labor employed in the offshored services sector and the supplier industries and corporate tax on the supplier industries 4 Includes sales tax on the supplier industries and revenue from the sale of power to offshored service providers Source: McKinsey Global Institute

  8. 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 JOBS OFFSHORED WILL BE A SMALL FRACTION OF THE SHORTAGE IN ELIGIBLE WORKERS • Number of workers • Millions, 2000-2015 • Jobs projected to go offshore • Decline in working population due to aging Source: U.S. Census; McKinsey Global Institute

  9. 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 JOBS OFFSHORED ARE A FRACTION OF ALL MASS LAYOFFS • Average annual mass layoffs1 • Millions • All mass layoffs2 • Trade-related layoffs3 • Offshoring projection4 1 Bureau of labor statistics defines mass layoffs as job loss actions leading to the displacement of 50 or more workers by a given establishment during a 5-week period 2 Average 1996-99 3 Average 1989-2000 4 Average 2003-13 Source: NBER; BLS; Kletzer; McKinsey Global Institute

  10. Negative emotional impact at the customer equally real • Real people and communities are effected • Re-training takes time • Manufacturing hang-over still felt • Economic value of off-shoring real • Off-shoring creates 40-50% greater value for the global economy • India captures 33% of every off-shored dollar while the US retains 67% and the incremental 40-50% value creation • Off-shored jobs small fraction of expected retirements/lay-offs 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 THEREFORE, BUSINESS LOGIC WOULD INDICATE THAT BPO HERE TO STAY … BUT WILL REQUIRE HANDLING CUSTOMER CONCERNS WITH COMPASSION

  11. Will the BPO phenomenon plateau out in the next few years? • Even if it survives, moving up the value chain will be difficult and will take several years? • Value chain moves will be the domain of captives because the trust required is too high? 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 IN THIS CONTEXT, SEVERAL DOUBTS HAVE ARISEN ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTAL LONGEVITY AND EVOLUTION OF BPO AS AN INDUSTRY

  12. C: “Externalize” B: “Re-engineer” A: “Accelerate, extend breadth and depth” Base • Take robust platforms external and create value out of the shared services utility • Specialized service bureau • Generic third party BPO provider Completed the first round of off-shoring successfully • Drive towards operational improvement • Task level and process level reengineering • Consolidation and aggregation of functions • Leverage low cost position to start offering new services to customers and improve competitive position in home markets • Increase breadth and depth of services • Strengthen and stabilize architecture • Insource-outsource, onshore-offshore architecture • Global hub architecture • Strategic outsourcing • Built substantial scale in operations in India • Penetrated 1-2 businesses in depth • Started capturing labour cost savings • D: Tackle tough (but large) industries 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 FOUR POSSIBLE VALUE CHAIN MOVES POSSIBLE

  13. Extensive judgment and analytical skill required Advanced technical skill and some judgment required Simple, standardized activities 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 A. MOVES UP THE VALUE CHAIN ALREADY HAPPENING IN TERMS OF BREADTH AND DEPTH OF PROCESSES OFF-SHORED • American Express • Live brokerage advice from qualified agents through a vendor in the Philippines (eTelecare) • Extensive offshoring of credit card services (including risk modeling and credit evaluation) • Extensive financial analyses • HSBC • Inbound customer service center for mortgage • AXA • Insurance claims processing • Examples of sector-specific (“vertical”) processes • Citibank • Credit card processing, collection calls, inbound and outbound service centers • Citibank • Check processing, account application processing, loan processing by a subsidiary (e-Serve) • Capital One • Inbound customer service center, outbound telemarketing (MSourcE) • GE Capital Business Solutions • Risk modeling, actuarial services, underwriting • GE • UK auto applications data entry • HSBC • Account opening and closing, retail loan processing, mortgage processing • GE Capital • Insurance claims processing • Outbound telemarketing, inbound customer service • McKinsey & Company • Research and knowledge management for world-wide offices in Gurgaon • MBNA • Processing of online applications (TransWorks) • Examples of corporate center (“horizontal”) processes • GE Capital • Risk analysis, strategic planning and forecasting • Financial statement analysis • GE Capital • Payroll accounting • Invoice and payment processing • Citibank • Finance and accounting

  14. 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 IN FIs, VENDORS AT POINT OF SERVICING THE WHOLE RANGE OF CORE BANKING AND SUPPORT PROCESSES • Sample processes • Illustrative vendors • Consumer banking • Retail banking (account maintenance, opening, check processing) • Core business • Wholesale banking • Fund administration • Reference data management • Insurance • Claims processing • Back office • HR/ Admin • Benefits administration • Payroll processing Business process off-shoring services • Support • Finance & Acctg. • A/R and A/P management • Reconciliation • Database integration & analytical services • Secondary research • Research • Outbound • Telemarketing • Collections (bucket one) • Voice • Inbound • Telesales • Customer service • Technical support help desk • Customer • facing • Non-voice • E-mail support • Fax responses • Live interaction (chat room customer service) Source: Vendor interviews, literature searches, vendor websites, McKinsey analysis

  15. 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 B. REENGINEERING AND PROCESS IMPROVEMENT CAN PROVIDE ADDITIONAL GAINS OF 30-40% • Factor cost benefits (45-55% savings) • Additional benefits (30-40% savings) • 100 • 60-65 • Does notinclude gains from revenue enhancement • 10-15 • 45-55 • 8-13 • 5-7 • 3-5 • 15 • 30-35 • Original costbase • Factorcostsavings • Additi-onal telecom & manag-ement costs • Off-shore location cost • Consoli-dation, standar-dization & superior skills • Taskreengi-neering • Econo-mies of scale • Process reengine-ering • New cost base • Task aggregation and process level improvement • Task levelimprovement • Task migration

  16. 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 IN FACT, OVER TIME COMPANIES HAVE CAPTURED ADDITIONAL PRODUCTIVITY GAINS • Productivity and process re-engineering • Economies of scale • Efficiency • Efficiency • Increased first time resolution rates from US benchmark of 59% to 74% resulting in reduction in repeat support calls and on-site dispatch calls leading to savings of ~$2 million per annum • Reduced average call centre talk time from 180 to 100 seconds through use of more qualified agents • Aggregated cheque order processing tasks and bought-in cross-trained agents, which has significantly increased staff utilisation • Better talent and training • Technology application • Re-engineering (end-to-end) • Improved total customer satisfaction score from 85% to 92% after offshoring call centre services to India • Reduced 40 FTEs by digitising the ‘back lining’ process in the contact centre • Decreased time taken for month-end closing from 5 to 2 days by modifying and eliminating tasks Source: Expert interviews; literature searches

  17. 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 C. F-1000 INSTITUTIONS HAVE INCREASINGLY BEGUN TO REALISE OPPORTUNITIES FOR REVENUE ENHANCEMENT Potential ideas for F-1000 institutions Revenue opportunities created through offshoring • Research platform to service customers for a fee – offer customized research for strategic customers • Develop modeling platform to provide fee-based analytical capabilities to SME financial services customers– offer customized services to large financial institutions • Offer trade finance services to SME customers that are otherwise uneconomical to serve • Offshore R&D (pharma, chemicals) using collaborations • Customised research for global customers – potential to create platform to service other banks • Ability to price insurance policies at significantly below competition leading to 5-7% market share improvement in home markets • Live brokerage advice for mass affluent customers from Series 7 qualified agents through vendor in the Philippines (eTelecare) • £50 million/year gained through revenue audits – interline, agent, and used tickets • Knowledge on call services for core clients – customized research and analytics

  18. 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 SIGNIFICANT VALUE CAN BE CAPTURED BY TRANSFORMING INTERNAL CAPABILITIES INTO THIRD-PARTY BUSINESSES • AmEx transitions internal processing unit into third-party company (FDR) and sells off majority ownership stake (1992) • FDR merges with largest competitor and grows to become global leader in transaction processing • Columbia Bank & Trust (later Synovus) transitions internal credit-card processing business into third-party company (1982) • CB&T sells 19% of company in IPO (1983) • TSYS grows to become the second largest processor in the world • Management buyout of Midland Bank processing unit following merger with First Bank System (1984) • IPO in 1986 • Grown to become leading provider of technology and processing services for financial institutions • Midland Bank • Parent • New business • Transition • Value creation U.S. $billion • $8 billion in market cap*, growing at 31% CAGR in the last 5 years • $5 billion in market cap*, growing at 5% CAGR in the last 5 years • $17 billion in market cap*, growing at 26% CAGR in the last 5 years * March 1, 2002 Sources: Hoovers; analyst reports; McKinsey analysis

  19. IT offshoring • Support functions • R&D 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 D. NEW INDUSTRIES THAT HAVE PLAYED “WAIT AND WATCH” GAME TRADITIONALLY NOW ACTIVELY EXPLORING AND COMMENCING OFFSHORING – PHARMACEUTICAL EXAMPLE • Attitude towards outsourcing/offshoring • Area • Key factors driving increasing momentum • “Wait and watch” towards offshoring until late 2001 • Significantly higher acceptance in 2002 • “Triggers pulled” in 2003 by several players including BMS, Novartis, Abbott • Mainstreaming of IT offshoring and emergence of credible success stories on cost and quality improvements • Solid vendor base (e.g., Infosys, Satyam, TCS) with proven track record • Observed actions of competing players! • “Wait and watch” towards outsourcing of business process through 2002 and early 2003 • Numerous ongoing discussions in 2003 with vendors on finance & accounting and HR offshoring • Increasing focus on rationalizing support function costs • Emergence of credible success stories and vendors for F&A and HR • Observed actions of competing players • Many companies articulating “overall aspiration” cutting across numerous opportunities such as IT, BPO, R&D • Concerns around IP and quality of medical infrastructure • Positive experience of first movers in addressing concerns and benefiting significantly e.g., AZ and BMS in R&D; Pfizer & Eli Lily in clinical development; Novartis & Pfizer in data management • Improved medical infrastructure and favorable regulatory environment

  20. Focus of document • R&D • Industrial Operations • Commercial Operations 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 OPPORTUNITIES FOR OFFSHORING EXIST ACROSS THE PHARMACEUTICAL VALUE CHAIN • Offshore potential • Support Functions • Target identification & validation • Lead generation & optimization • Preclinical/ Toxicology • Clinical Development & Trials • Data Management • New production development • Procurement • Planning and manufacturing • Plant maintenance • Quality management • Process control • Supply chain management • Performance monitoring and control • Strategic and commercial busi-ness planning (pre-launch) • Product development and life cycle management • Pricing and health economics • Market a product (new and legacy) • Customer relationship management • Customer and consumer services • Sales management • Logistics & distribution • After sales services • Finance & Accounting • Information Technology • Human resources • Legal • Legal counseling advocacy and litigation • Intellectual property counseling • Sales force support Source: Interviews; McKinsey analysis

  21. Statistical study design • Statistical programming • Document management • Database locking • Report writing and filing to medical authorities 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 RECENT ACTIVITY POINTS TO GROWING INTEREST OF PHARMACOS IN OFFSHORING – DATA MANAGEMENT EXAMPLE • NOVARTIS EXAMPLE • Global statistical operations business system • Operations in India • Started operations in 2001 • Approximately 30 statisticians out of global team of 250 located in India • Focus on standard safety reporting for Phase II and III trials • Reports focused on US FDA and EMEA • Over 40 global trials supported in first year of operation • Supporting 2 mega trials of over 10,000 patient records each • Conduct several short turn-around analyses for clinical pharmacology studies • Savings of around 40-60% vis-à-vis global CROs within first year • Targeting 80-100 global trials in 2003 • Plans to start related areas of filing and report writing, efficacy reporting and statistical design for Phase IV studies • Entering into Phase I reporting for complex oncology trials and traditionally outsourced, Phase IV trials Source: Interviews

  22. 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 OFFSHORING CAN RAPIDLY MOVE UP THE PHARMA VALUE CHAIN • Phase 3: High-end activities • Phase 2: Minimal risk move • Contract manufacturing • New product development R&D • Lead generation and optimisation • Phase 1: “Early wins” • Contract manufacturing • Drug manufacturing (TBD) • Formulations development • Custom chemical synthesis • R&D • Bio-informatics • Analog generation Support functions • Sales force support • Support functions • Finance and accounting • Information technology • Human resources • R&D • Clinical development • Data management, including bio-stats • Opportunity 1 2 3 4 5 • Significant experience across other industries • Strong vendor base • Pharmas already doing it • Significant bottom line impact potential visible • Emerging vendor base • IPR issues need to be clarified • Comfort around Asia needs to be established • Rationale

  23. Will the BPO phenomenon plateau out in the next few years? • Even if it survives, moving up the value chain will be difficult and will take several years? • Value chain moves will be the domain of captives because the trust required is too high? 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 IN THIS CONTEXT, SEVERAL DOUBTS HAVE ARISEN ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTAL LONGEVITY AND EVOLUTION OF BPO AS AN INDUSTRY

  24. 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 IN THE END STATE, LARGE INSTITUTIONS WILL USE A COMBINATION OF CAPTIVE AND VENDOR FACILITIES From primarily captive… …to hybrid model • Indian best-of-breed vendor • Indian best-of-breed vendor • Outsource to Global brand • Outsource to Global brand • Feasibility of outsourc-ing the process • JV/ Alliance • JV/ Alliance • Delay • Delay • Captive • Captive • Cross-border operation sophistication • Started off handling all processes in-house • Now outsources call centre services to multiple third party vendors • Started offshoring operations by outsourcing • In addition to outsourcing, now also runs a captive centre Examples

  25. 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 IN FACT, MATURE OFFSHORERS HAVE DEVELOPED AN INTEGRATED ARCHITECTURE OVER TIME • Started with 150 person completely captive unit in 1994 primarily for back end processing • Entry into knowledge intensive activities in 2000-01 • Significant expansion of head count and service line in 2001 • Geographical diversification into Philippines in 2001 • % of total off shored services • Model • Scale, scope and management model • Captive operations • Leverages brand, • Important for regulatory issues • Preserves proprietary process knowledge • 30% • Over 1600 FTEs • Involved in high-end and low-medium-end, proprietary/non proprietary services (e.g., A/C reconciliation,A/C opening and closing, Ledger activities for credit cards, A/C planning and forecasting, Fraud and risk modeling) • Third party – India • Exclusive support to AMEX • Creates scale with minimal investment • Diversifies risk • Competes with captive and provides BCP • 50% • Over 2000 FTEs across vendors such as Spectramind, Daksh, EFunds • Voice based customer support for credit card operations • Third party – Philippines • Reduces country risk • Provides BCP • 20% • 700 FTEs • Voice based customer support for credit card operations

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  27. Rigorous analytic approach • Sponsor-led approach • Outside-in approach 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 F-1000 PLAYERS HAVE ADOPTED THREE APPROACHES TO SELECT PROCESSES FOR OFFSHORING • Detailed analysis to identify high potential processes, percent • Identify processes for offshoring based on simple criteria • Sponsorship from process owner (e.g., inside Group Ops. in LTSB) • Least organizational resistance (e.g., overflow work) • Low reputation/service quality risk • Identify processes/ activities offshored by existing players • Filter activities by offshorability • Use external benchmarks (activities and phasing) to identify and prio-ritize the corresponding candidate process in your organization • Use benchmark information on off-shore-onshore split and internal FTE mapping (for identified candidate processes) to size the opportunity • 'Build and they will come' – allow other parts of the organization to decide on offshoring at their own pace

  28. 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 THIS HAS PRIMARILY BEEN DRIVEN BY THE SIGNIFICANT 35-50% COST SAVINGS OPPORTUNITY • Financial services sectors with high potential for offshoring* • Per cent of cost base offshorable • Potential institution- • wide savings** • Per cent of total NIE*** Retail banking • Retail banking • Deposit products • 15-20 • 7-11 • Consumer loans • 20-25 • 10-15 • Credit cards • Card issuance & servicing • 25-30 • 8-15 • Merchant acquiring • 20-25 • 7-12 • Mortgages • 35-50% savings in off-shored activities • Origination • 10-15 • 5-10 • Servicing • 30-40 • 10-20 Wholesale banking • Investment banking • Research • 10-15 • 5-10 Insurance • Life and health • Personal • 20-30 • 5-12 • Group and health • 20-25 • 5-12 • 25-30 • 8-15 • Property and casualty * Asset management module including retail brokerage to be completed ** Does not include potential cost savings from offshoring IT and corporate center processes *** Non-interest expense - operating cost only, excluding interest expense, advertising, and corporate G&A where separable; assumes institution is a “pure-player”

  29. 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 VENDOR LANDSCAPE IS CONSOLIDATING AND MATURING • Leading players • Employees • Service line focus • Call center, technical help desks and email based help desks • BPO start-ups • Call center, Insurance claims processing, airline revenue accounting • Call center, Techmail help desk • Call centers, technical help desks and email based help desks – dedicated centers for BankofAmerica, Amex • BPO arms of Indian IT services players • Inbound call center and financial services • Mortgage processing (Greenpoint) and financial services • Call center and financial services (payments, card processing) • BPO arms of large financial institutions • Call center, technical help desk, loan processing • Global BPO companies • Customer care, financial and accounting, payments • Customer care (largely inbound)

  30. 20030520DL-ZXE332(ITES, Board Pres.)(JS)-7 SELL OUTS HAVE BEEN WITNESSED IN THE RECENT PAST • EXAMPLES • 3rd party provider • 3rd party provider • 2001 • 1996 • 2002 • 2002 • BA set up captive • BA sold captive to Warbug Pincus • Conseco acquired EXL Services as captive center • Conseco sold EXLServices to Oakhill Partners • In April 2002, Warburg Pincus, leading private equity investor acquired 70% majority stake • Strategy requires investment to fully exploit growing third party client base • Allotted $3 million to set up third business process outsourcing (BPO) centre by 2003 • Key events • Set up captive center in 1996 as wholly owned subsidiary to reduce the airline's operating cost • Processed about 80% of BA’s backend operations • Largely focused on airline clients • Conseco acquired EXL in 2001 for about $ 52.6 million • Conseco fully exited by selling out stake to Oakhill Partners by Nov 2002; however it has continued outsourcing its transaction processing • EXL Services named largest 3rd party IT-enabled service company in India in revenue terms • Conseco was in financial distress due to diminishing core business and sold out captive center to raise funds • BA sold out captive center to improve diversity of talent • Rationale for sell-out • Internet and voice customer services • Critical Back Office Operations • Transaction processing • Collections • Customer complaints • Passenger/agent claims • Tracking cargo • Customer Care / CRM • Loyalty program support • Revenue Accounting • Marketing program development and management • Offshored activities • Revenue • (USD mil.) • 8.9 (FY1999) • 16.0 (FY2001) • 25 (FY2001) • ~60 • 300 (FY2000) • 3,500 (FY2002) • 1,700 (FY2001) • Employees • Unavailable Source: McKinsey, Nasscom, press articles

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