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Keegan Moyer Associate Staff Engineer

Keegan Moyer Associate Staff Engineer. LTPT 2032 Reference Case Data June 19 th , 2012 DWG Meeting (webinar). 2032 Reference Case Data Assumptions . Resources Capital costs (focus for today) = E3 Gen characteristics Solar/Wind capacity factors = NREL data Loads Transmission

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Keegan Moyer Associate Staff Engineer

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  1. Keegan MoyerAssociate Staff Engineer LTPT 2032 Reference Case Data June 19th, 2012 DWG Meeting (webinar)

  2. 2032 Reference CaseData Assumptions • Resources • Capital costs (focus for today) = E3 • Gen characteristics • Solar/Wind capacity factors = NREL data • Loads • Transmission • Network reduction • Modeling assumptions

  3. Loads Shape • 2005 historical hourly load shapes Energy • 2021 Balancing Authority (BA) load forecasts reported to WECC, extrapolated to 2022 • Adjusted for expected impact of current energy efficiency policies and programs not accounted for in the BA load forecasts • Adjustments provided by the SPSC DSM WG • WECC-wide forecasts reduced by an additional 3.2% (energy) and 5.0% (peak demand), relative to initial BA forecasts WECC-wide CAGR (2010-2021) = 1.4% (energy), 1.3% (peak) WECC-wide 2022 demand = 999,119 GWh (energy), 174,109 MW(peak)

  4. Resources Gen characteristics • Solar/Wind capacity factors = NREL data

  5. Capacity Factors from NREL DataSupply Curve 10-Year Studies 2032 Ref. Case Capacity Factor (%) WREZ Capacity 0 30 60 … MW

  6. Capacity Factors from NREL Data 10-Year Studies 2032 Ref. Case Capacity Factor (%) 0 30 60 … WREZ Capacity MW

  7. Capacity Factors from NREL Data Right now this is how we are expressing WREZ Hub capacity and capacity factor (exaggerated for effect) Capacity Factor (%) WREZ Gen 1 WREZ Capacity 0 MW

  8. Capacity Factors from NREL Data Alternative technique for modeling WREZ Hub capacity and capacity factors (exaggerated for effect) WREZ Gen 1 Capacity Factor (%) WREZ Gen 2 WREZ Gen 3 WREZ Capacity 0 MW

  9. To close… Please review “2032 Reference Case.xlsx” and follow up with any concerns/questions by Friday (6/29)

  10. Keegan Moyer Associate Staff Engineer kmoyer@wecc.biz (801)819-7662 Questions?

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