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Keegan Moyer Associate Staff Engineer

Join us for a comprehensive webinar on the 2032 Reference Case Data, focusing on key assumptions regarding resources, capital costs, and energy characteristics. We will discuss the solar and wind capacity factors informed by NREL data, historical load shapes, and the impact of energy efficiency policies on load forecasts. Additionally, we will review WECC-wide forecasts, including adjustments for energy and peak demand. Participants are encouraged to review the provided 2032 Reference Case spreadsheet before the session. For questions or concerns, please reach out to Keegan Moyer.

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Keegan Moyer Associate Staff Engineer

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  1. Keegan MoyerAssociate Staff Engineer LTPT 2032 Reference Case Data June 19th, 2012 DWG Meeting (webinar)

  2. 2032 Reference CaseData Assumptions • Resources • Capital costs (focus for today) = E3 • Gen characteristics • Solar/Wind capacity factors = NREL data • Loads • Transmission • Network reduction • Modeling assumptions

  3. Loads Shape • 2005 historical hourly load shapes Energy • 2021 Balancing Authority (BA) load forecasts reported to WECC, extrapolated to 2022 • Adjusted for expected impact of current energy efficiency policies and programs not accounted for in the BA load forecasts • Adjustments provided by the SPSC DSM WG • WECC-wide forecasts reduced by an additional 3.2% (energy) and 5.0% (peak demand), relative to initial BA forecasts WECC-wide CAGR (2010-2021) = 1.4% (energy), 1.3% (peak) WECC-wide 2022 demand = 999,119 GWh (energy), 174,109 MW(peak)

  4. Resources Gen characteristics • Solar/Wind capacity factors = NREL data

  5. Capacity Factors from NREL DataSupply Curve 10-Year Studies 2032 Ref. Case Capacity Factor (%) WREZ Capacity 0 30 60 … MW

  6. Capacity Factors from NREL Data 10-Year Studies 2032 Ref. Case Capacity Factor (%) 0 30 60 … WREZ Capacity MW

  7. Capacity Factors from NREL Data Right now this is how we are expressing WREZ Hub capacity and capacity factor (exaggerated for effect) Capacity Factor (%) WREZ Gen 1 WREZ Capacity 0 MW

  8. Capacity Factors from NREL Data Alternative technique for modeling WREZ Hub capacity and capacity factors (exaggerated for effect) WREZ Gen 1 Capacity Factor (%) WREZ Gen 2 WREZ Gen 3 WREZ Capacity 0 MW

  9. To close… Please review “2032 Reference Case.xlsx” and follow up with any concerns/questions by Friday (6/29)

  10. Keegan Moyer Associate Staff Engineer kmoyer@wecc.biz (801)819-7662 Questions?

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