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Trends in Wireless Systems A subjective view of a rapidly evolving industry

Trends in Wireless Systems A subjective view of a rapidly evolving industry. Richard S. Wolff, Ph. D. rwolff@ece.montana.edu 406 994 7172 March 17, 2003. Outline. Some user trends The emergence of WiFi (802.11) The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G?

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Trends in Wireless Systems A subjective view of a rapidly evolving industry

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  1. Trends in Wireless Systems A subjective view of a rapidly evolving industry Richard S. Wolff, Ph. D. rwolff@ece.montana.edu 406 994 7172 March 17, 2003

  2. Outline • Some user trends • The emergence of WiFi (802.11) • The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G? • Some areas for research and innovation

  3. Subscribers worldwide Millions Mobile phone Wireline phone TV households PCs Mobile devices will dominate Source: Risto Perttunen, McKinsey, 9/00

  4. Taiwan Sw. Italy Fin. Neth. UK Den. Ger. S. Kor. Spain Aus. Fr. Japan USA Malay. Canada Brazil India

  5. Strong growth in cellular subscribers (US data) Subscribers Double 97- 00 Source: CTIA, 2000

  6. DoCoMo annual revenue per user (voice and i-mode) (JY) 8740 8650 8480 Source: NTT DoCoMo Website, www.nttdocomo.com Investor Relations

  7. 1 billion wireless gadgets by 200x (Choose x = 4, 5, ...) • Gadgets and technology originally developed for one purpose will be used in new and innovative ways for other purposes • WiFi developed for enterprise wireless LANs but can be used as public infrastructure • Two parallel, contradictory (or complementary) gadget trends leading to different needs and capabilities • Integration: • cell phone as pager, organizer, e-wallet, radio, media player ... • Specialization: • different functionality, form factors, power requirements, connectivity, processing and storage, fashion niches

  8. Example: integration • DoCoMo 3G FOMA phone • Download 684 kbps, Upload 64 kbps (nominal) • Still and video digital camera • Add text and frames to pictures or split into a jigsaw puzzle • Send as email • Share video while talking • Remote video monitoring using a second phone • i-motion service for multimedia content download (music, movie clips etc) Source: NTT DoCoMo website

  9. Example: hybrid • BlackBerry Wireless Handheld • Initially paging, now two-way e-mail • Initially text-based, now image and text • Cellular voice added • Targeted at business users • Integrates with office software • High level of security Source: BlackBerry web site

  10. Example: specialization Designed to do one function very well

  11. Multimedia Relative Traffic 70 – 80 % 50 % Voice 20 – 30 % 50 % 2000 2005 2010 Traffic characteristics

  12. Bandwidth Available is Inversely Proportional to Range

  13. Outline • Some user trends • The emergence of WiFi (802.11) • The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G? • Some areas for research and innovation

  14. Wireless LANs – Technologies [1] Frequency Hopping Spread Spectrum [2] Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum [3] Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing

  15. Wireless LANs: complement or compete with cellular? Source: Pyramid research

  16. New Intel chip set:Will this get the ball rolling?

  17. W-LAN Deployment – work in progress • Security – older 802.11 standard (WEP) being replaced • 802.1x for authentication/password • Alternative is access point controller (e.g. Bluesocket or Vernier) • Visitor Based Networks (VBNs) or Hot-Spots • Boutique ISPs emerging now: Boingo, Joltage, Wayport, EtherLinx, WiFi Metro • Larger ISPs waiting for wireless WAN solution to emerge • Provisioning and management of W-LANs • Enterprise and residential provisioning of subscribers • Configuration of security and QoS

  18. Coffee Shop/Hotel/Public Space, etc Typical Hotspots • Architecture commonly deployed in Coffee shops and airports: Installation (Per Site) Hardware: $4000 Installation: $500 On-going Internet Access:$150/month Access Point(s) are “dumb” & AAA Server Located at Every Site

  19. WiFi and Fries….. March 11,2003

  20. Convergence?Use of WiFi for fixed Internet access

  21. A peculiar marriage:Cable operator using WiFi for fixed access March 11,2003

  22. Service Provider’s Network Integration of voice and data on WiFi Note PC User Premises Wireless Access Point LAN Voice&Data PDA Mobile Communication Server and system • Features • Voice & Data Integration by IP • Realtime Mobility • Seamless handoff, Voice support • Wireless Security • AAA and encryption for the access network • QoS • Admission control, L2 QoS management Cellular Handset

  23. The Convergence of Wi-Fi and Cellular… NY Times, July 15, 2002 • Talks Weigh Big Project on Wireless Internet Link • By JOHN MARKOFF • SAN FRANCISCO, July 15 — Several leading computer and telecommunications companies • are discussing the joint creation of a wireless data network that would make it possible for users • of hand-held and portable computers to have access to the Internet at high speeds nationwide. • The Intel Corporation, I.B.M., AT&T Wireless and several other wireless and Internet service • providers including Verizon Communications and Cingular are exploring the creation of a • company to deploy a network based on the increasingly popular 802.11 wireless data standard, • known as WiFi, according to several people close to the talks…….

  24. Seamless Mobility/Transparent operations: Cellular to WiFi ITSUMO testbed Telcordia/Toshiba research project

  25. Fixed Network WiFi Network The car as the next internet appliance Content • Seamless mobility • Fast handoffs • Content adapts to available bandwidth IGW IGW IGW IGW IGW Hot Spot ... Cellular Network Current solutions are limited in scope and functionality

  26. Summary– Wireless LAN applications • W-LAN solutions converging on WiFi (802.11b -> 802.11a) • Enterprise & residential WiFi LAN network opportunity exists today • Hot-Spot & Visitor Based Nets (VBNs) coming? • W-LAN obstacles to mitigate: QoS, mobility, scaling,security • Interworking with cellular- coming soon

  27. Outline • Some user trends • The emergence of WiFi (802.11) • The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G? • Some areas for research and innovation

  28. Speed bps BT = Bluetooth H2 = Hiperlan 2 PDC = Personal Digital Cellular 100 M H2 802.11 PBCC 10 M 802.11b 5.5/11 Mb 802.11 BT WCDMA 1 M EDGE cdmaOne 1X EV-DC, 3X GPRS 100 K PDC cdma2000 1X 10 K GSM TDMA AMPS cdmaOne 2G 1G 2.5G 3G 4G 3.5G 1990 2010 2000 1985 Cellular networks- is there a 4G coming?The bandwidth perspective ?? ?

  29. Wireless generations: User’s view

  30. This is just the beginning! Source: Rainer Malaka, EML ICDE 2001

  31. 4G Imperatives(1 of 3) • Innovative applications, not voice, will be the key revenue generator • Programmability and open interfaces while maintaining security, QoS, and bill-ability • Foster a 3rd-party app developer community Build on work centered on fixed networks • The search for the killer app should never end Any static portfolio of applications and services will eventually become a commodity • Radical personalization and niche applications Applications with a market size of 1

  32. 4G Imperatives(2 of 3) • True convergence with the Internet is critical • IP must be supported efficiently • Remove discontinuities at the wired/wireless interface and the data/voice interface • The Internet must also evolve to support wireless mobility and ubiquity efficiently Example: Fundamental addressing issues dictate IPv6 Example: Fundamental inefficiencies in supporting mobility must be removed

  33. 4G Imperatives(3 of 3) • Spectrum will remain the vital resource • Integrate with unlicensed spectrum • Allow creative technology and business models for seamless inclusion of hotspots and multi-hop WLAN and other technologies • Manage licensed spectrum efficiently • Consider dynamic and market-based mechanisms for on-demand spectrum allocation

  34. 4G: The Basic Model 3rd-party Applications Native Applications Voice OPEN INTERFACE Middleware OPEN INTERFACE IP-Based Core Network OPEN INTERFACE PAN, CAN, AAN etc. Native WLAN Hotspot 3rd-party WLAN Hotspot 3G / Native Access 3G / 3rd-party Access 4G Access Network Emerging Access

  35. Evolution towards 4G • 3.5G: An All-IP network (i.e., with Wireless IP) integrating all our current favorite IETF protocols (MIP, FMIP, HMIP, CARD, PANA, etc ) • 4G: A programmable, flexible, application-oriented Web-based architecture suitable for fundamentally supporting • mobility • WWW • ubiquitous computing • semantics-aware applications • …

  36. Outline • Some user trends • The emergence of WiFi (802.11) • The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G? • Some areas for research and innovation

  37. What are some of the missing pieces – areas for research and innovation (1 of 3) • Spectrum use • Ultra-wideband • Dynamic spectrum reuse • What about free space optical? • Software defined radios • Flexible modulation and coding • Software downloads of middleware and applications • Array antennas • Dynamic beam formation • Interference rejection • Further exploit signal processing and active feed back and control

  38. What are some of the missing pieces – areas for research and innovation (2 of 3) • Ad hoc networks • Use the clients as fixed network infrastructure • Use alternate routing to mitigate congestion, dead spots • What about the third dimension: incorporate satellites • Dynamic binding: car-to-car, car-to-roadside • Applications designed for wireless: exploit programmable host platforms (BREW, J2ME, Pocket PC, etc.) • Location awareness – exploit it • Advances in user interfaces – accommodate for mobile use, hands free operation • Mobile code (agents) for mobile users

  39. What are some of the missing pieces – areas for research and innovation (3 of 3) • Economic models • Innovative business models Cost/benefit analyses • Life cycle cost studies • Impacts of technology trends • Assessments of policy and regulatory changes • Regional deployment scenarios

  40. Summary • Wireless systems should be defined in terms of applications and services • Not purely by air interface protocol • Coming: Gazillions of wireless gadgets • Need for massive mobile data management • Rapid service introduction and heterogeneous technologies (air interface, terminal device, backbone) => programmability and open interface at all levels of the system => applications with market size of 1 A very fertile area for research and innovation

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