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2014 U.S. Corn Supply and Industry Outlook Conference Summary

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The 2014 Corn Outlook Conference, held in West Des Moines, Iowa, highlighted key insights into U.S. corn supply and demand trends, acreage forecasts, and market shifts. Chad Hart, Associate Professor and Crop Markets Specialist, shared analyses based on USDA data from 2010-2013, discussing factors affecting corn prices, export sales, and the implications of the 2014 planting season. Key topics included supply concerns, changes in acreage allocation, and the long-term outlook for corn markets amid a potentially rebounding demand and weather patterns influenced by El Niño.

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2014 U.S. Corn Supply and Industry Outlook Conference Summary

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  1. Corn Outlook Industry Outlook Conference West Des Moines, Iowa Apr. 22, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010-13

  3. Corn Acreage Top: 2014 Intended acres Bottom: Change from 2013 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  4. Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

  5. Time between Survey & Planting Source: USDA-NASS

  6. Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS

  7. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  8. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  9. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  10. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  11. Advance Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  12. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  13. Current Corn Futures 4.78 4.72 4.68 Source: CME Group, 4/18/2014

  14. Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

  15. 2013/14 Crop Prices

  16. 2014/15 Crop Margins

  17. Source: droughtmonitor.unl.edu

  18. 3-Month Temperature Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC

  19. 3-Month Precipitation Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC

  20. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good • Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go? • Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term • Dry soils to start, but El Niño watch for summer

  21. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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