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This report presents a comprehensive historical perspective and outlook for U.S. grain production, focusing on corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton for 2007. It includes detailed supply and demand projections, beginning stocks, acreage, yields, and pricing trends. Historical trends from 1992 to 2007 are analyzed to identify patterns and forecast potential changes affected by external factors such as global market conditions, weather, and economic influences. Insights into how these factors impact ending stocks and prices are also provided.
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Corn Situation and Outlook Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Corn ----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 1967 1967 1967 Acres (M. P. A.) 78.3 Yield 149.1 Supply(M. Bu) 12512 Use: Feed 5850 Ethanol 2150 Food, Seed 1385 Exports 2250 Ending Stocks 810 877 944 Projected Price $3.20 $3.10 $3.00
Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Corn ----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 877 877 877 Acres (MPA) 88.5 90.5 92.5 Acres (MHA) 80.3 82.1 83.9 Yield 147 152.8 157 Supply(M. Bu) 12688 13431 14061 Use: Feed 5800 Ethanol 3200 Food, Seed 1400 Exports 1925 Ending Stocks 885 1106 1327 Projected Price $3.20 $3.00 $2.80
Wheat Situation and Outlook Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Wheat ----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 571 Acres (M. A. Planted) 57.3 Yield 38.7 Supply(M. Bu) 2498 Use: Food, Seed 1007 Feed, Resid 170 Exports 900 Ending Stocks 398 422 446 Projected Price $4.60 $4.30 $4.00
Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Wheat ----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 422 422 422 Acres (M. A. Planted) 58.8 60.3 61.8 Acres (M.A. Harvested) 49.7 51.0 52.2 Yield 38.0 42.5 44.0 Supply(M. Bu) 2411 2691 2820 Use: Food, Seed 1011 Feed, Resid 300 Exports 925 Ending Stocks 318 455 591 Projected Price $5.00 $4.25 $3.50
Soybean Situation and Outlook Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs. Price, 1990-2007 ‘03 ‘96 ‘95 ‘97 ‘06 ‘93 ‘04 ‘90 ‘05 ‘02 ‘94 ‘91 ‘92 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Soybeans ----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 449 449 449 Acres (M. P. A.) 75.5 Yield 42.7 Supply(M. Bu) 3642 Use: Crushing 1765 Exports 1080 Seed, Feed 182 Ending Stocks 502 615 728 Projected Price $6.40 $6.25 $6.10
Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Soybeans ----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 615 615 615 Acres (MA Planted) 65.8 67.1 68.4 Acres (MA Harvested) 64.7 66.0 67.3 Yield 38.0 41.5 43.0 Supply(M. Bu) 3079 3359 3513 Use: Crushing 1820 Exports 1125 Seed, Feed 164 Ending Stocks 174 249 324 Projected Price $7.00 $6.30 $5.60
Grain Sorghum Situation and Outlook Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Sorghum ----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 66.0 66.0 66.0 Acres (M. P. A.) 6.5 6.5 6.5 Supply(M. Bu) 343 343 343 Use: Food & Seed 45 Exports 140 Feed 110 Ending Stocks 35 48 61 Projected Price $3.40 $3.20 $3.00
Cotton Situation and Outlook Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Cotton ----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 6.0 6.0 6.0 Acres (M. P. A.) 15.27 Yield 813 Supply(MB) 27.6 Use: Domestic 5.0 Exports 13.5 Ending Stocks 8.4 9.2 10.0 Projected Price/cwt $52 $48 $44
Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Cotton ----------Supply/Demand ---------- Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low Beginning Stocks(MB) 9.2 9.2 9.2 Acres (M. P. A.) 11.8 12.2 12.5 Acres (MA Harvested) 10.5 10.8 11.1 Yield 750 815 850 Supply(MB) 25.6 27.6 28.9 Use: Domestic 4.5 Exports 16.0 Ending Stocks 5.3 7.1 8.9 Projected Price/cwt
What Could Change The Outlook? • South America • Plant Mix • Non-Farm Economic Conditions in U.S., World – Oil Supplies, War • Exchange Rates • China • Weather