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Corn Outlook

Corn Outlook. Midwest, Great Plains, & Western Outlook Conference Louisville, Kentucky August 16, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Corn Area. Source: USDA-NASS. Crop Conditions. Source: USDA-NASS.

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Corn Outlook

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  1. Corn Outlook Midwest, Great Plains, & Western Outlook Conference Louisville, Kentucky August 16, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use

  3. Corn Area Source: USDA-NASS

  4. Crop Conditions Source: USDA-NASS

  5. Crop Conditions & Corn Yields

  6. Examining the Relationship

  7. Preliminary Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  8. Corn Production Source: USDA-NASS

  9. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  10. Exchange Rates (Jan. 2003 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

  11. Corn Export Markets Source: USDA, FAS

  12. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  13. Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  14. Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  15. Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1)

  16. Ethanol Margin Source: CARD

  17. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  18. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  19. Ethanol Stocks

  20. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  21. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  22. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

  23. Corn Prices vs. Costs

  24. Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, July 29, 2011

  25. Iowa Cash Rents Source: USDA-NASS

  26. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Debt limit, US credit rating • US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation • Supply/demand concerns • Prevented planting, flooding, heat wave, nighttime temps? • Biofuel growth and energy demand • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2010/11: USDA Corn $5.25 • 2011/12: USDA Corn $6.70 • Futures (as of 8/15/2011) Corn $6.95 • 2012/13: Futures (as of 8/15/2011) Corn $6.27

  27. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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