1 / 11

Shanghai TMP 2004

Shanghai TMP 2004 . Top Management Program Shanghai Prof. F.. M. Macaranas May 2004. I. Introduction to Chaos Theory. Introduction to Chaos Theory. A. Clarification / definition of terms 1. Chaos theory

caspar
Télécharger la présentation

Shanghai TMP 2004

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Shanghai TMP 2004 Top Management Program Shanghai Prof. F.. M. Macaranas May 2004

  2. I. Introduction to Chaos Theory

  3. Introduction to Chaos Theory A. Clarification / definition of terms 1. Chaos theory • Definition:science that determines order in the randomness and unpredictability that exist in the natural and social systems Ex: coastlines, mountains, clouds, galaxy clusters, leaves, heart rhythms, etc.

  4. Introduction A. Clarification / definition of terms 1. Chaos theory applications Self-organization in public administration: citizens can co-create goals, plans, and outcome that can be sustained by them and communities Dynamic evolution of industries and complex interactions among industry actors Human interaction and leadership styles: business organizations as complex adaptive systems Firms respond to changes in the environs more effectively if authentic relationships are valued at all levels of the companies Monsanto experiment: overloading 22,000 people to find new and creative ways of adapting to new environ

  5. Introduction A. Clarification / definition of terms 1. Chaos theory applications Long-term strategies that are incremental and adaptive rather than prescriptive and rigid Furnaces that burn hotter, metals that can be more stressed, cars that burn fuel without stalling out Non-linear thinking in crisis management: real-time information provided by CNN during the Gulf War change political and military decisions unexpectedly

  6. Introduction A. Clarification / definition of terms 1. Chaos theory underlying principles • Non-linearity • Determinism • Sensitivity to initial conditions • Sustained irregularity in the behavior of the system • Unpredictable long-term behavior • Self-organization • Positive feedback loops • Qualitative character of systems rather than numerical predictions of future states • Unstable • Aperiodic – no periodic repetition of values

  7. Characteristics of Systems

  8. Introduction A. Clarification / definition of terms 3. Chaos theory-based SWOT Identify the Strengths of an entity Classify whether these are characterized by order chaos randomness Identify W, O, and T Combine internal and external elements Think of a strategy based on the combination

  9. Chaos Theory Example Chaotic systems, in this case a fractal, can appear to be smooth and ordered.

  10. first recursion second recursion fourth recursion third recursion Chaos Theory Example: The Sierpinski’s Triangle

  11. Applications to New Concept of National Security A. Clarification / definition of terms 3. SWOT analysis • Definition: a strategic model in management that combines internal strengths and weaknesses of an entity, and external opportunities and threats facing the same entity Opportunities Threats Strengths S-O S-T Weaknesses WO W-T Fractals are recursively defined and infinitely detailed

More Related