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Evaluation of CAFE scenarios and outstanding modelling issues

Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Evaluation of CAFE scenarios and outstanding modelling issues. Contents. The final CAFE scenario Environmental objectives Results Benefits Macro-economic impacts Further steps towards the NEC revision

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Evaluation of CAFE scenarios and outstanding modelling issues

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  1. Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Evaluation of CAFE scenarios and outstanding modelling issues

  2. Contents • The final CAFE scenario • Environmental objectives • Results • Benefits • Macro-economic impacts • Further steps towards the NEC revision • Bilateral consultations • Model improvements • Time table

  3. Environmental objectives of the CAFE scenario

  4. Environmental targets of the EU Thematic Strategy

  5. Per-capita costs of the Thematic Strategy scenario

  6. Gain in statistical life expectancy for the CAFE scenario (months)

  7. Benefits of the CAFE scenariosSource: CAFE benefit analysis, Holland et al., 2005

  8. Macro-economic impacts of the CAFE scenarios compared to the baseline 2020Source: CAFE benefit analysis, Holland et al., 2005

  9. Environmental improvements of the CAFE scenarioImpact indicator in 2000 = 100%

  10. Next steps • Bilateral consultations • with 21 EU Member States, Norway: completed • + Switzerland, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Russia, Ukraine • All available and approved EGTEI results incorporated • NEC baseline scenario: Spring 2006 • Model improvements: Spring 2006 • Updated energy baseline projections (national and PRIMES) • City-Delta 3 for urban increments (improved population data, 2 more cities, improved validation) • Updated critical loads data • Multi-year meteorology • GAINS optimization: synergies with greenhouse gas mitigation • Policy scenarios: Rest of 2006

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