Public Opinion and Political Socialization

2. Public Opinion and Political Socialization 10

3. Video: The Big Picture 10 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/OConner_Ch10_Public_Opinion_Seg1_v2.html

4. 10 LearningObjectives Trace the development of modern public opinion research 10.1 Describe the methods for conducting and analyzing different types of public opinion polls 10.2

5. 10 LearningObjectives Assess the potential shortcomings of polling 10.3 Analyze the process by which people form political opinions 10.4

6. 10 LearningObjectives Evaluate the effects of public opinion on politics 10.5

7. Video: The Basics 10 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg2_PoliticalOpinion_v2.html

8. Roots of Public Opinion Research 10.1 • The Earliest Public Opinion Research • The Gallup Organization • The National Election Studies

9. The Earliest Public Opinion Research Polling to predict winner of elections Polling to discover public opinions Walter Lippmann’s Public Opinion Literary Digest Straw poll Sample 10.1

10. 10.1 Is polling always accurate?

11. The Gallup Organization George Gallup Dissertation on how to measure the readership of newspapers Expanded research to study public opinion about politics Increased use of polling to market products and candidates 10.1

12. 10.1 FIGURE 10.1: How successful has the Gallup Poll been?

13. Video: In Context 10.1 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg3_PublicOpinion_v2.html

14. The American National Election Studies Focuses on attitudes of the electorate How voters voted Party affiliation Opinions of parties and candidates Surveys before and after mid-term and presidential elections 10.1

15. Video: Thinking Like a Political Scientist 10.1 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg4_PublicOpinion_v2.html

16. Conducting and Analyzing Public Opinion Polls 10.2 • Designing the Survey and Sample • Contacting Respondents • Analyzing the Data

17. Designing the Survey and Sample Determining the content and phrasing of the questions Wording is crucial “Push polls” Selecting the sample Population Random sampling Stratified sampling 10.2

18. Contacting Respondents Telephone polls Random digit dialing survey 10.2

19. 10.2 How are polls conducted?

20. Contacting Respondents Telephone polls Tracking polls 10.2

21. 10.2 FIGURE 10.2: What does a daily tracking poll look like?

22. Contacting Respondents In-person interviews Exit polls Internet polls Scientific polls versus unscientific Web polls 10.2

23. Analyzing the Data Reveals implications for public policy and political campaigns Data analyzed by computers Subgroups of population, such as men versus women, age groups, or political ideology, may be analyzed Reporting the data News organizations or campaigns 10.2

24. Explore the Simulation: You Are a Polling Consultant 10.2 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/long/long_longman_media_1/2013_mpsl_sim/simulation.html?simulaURL=11

25. Shortcomings of Polling 10.3 • Survey Error • Limited Response Options • Lack of Information • Difficulty in Measuring Intensity • Lack of Interest in Political Issues

26. Survey Error Margin of error Natural errors in statistical measurement Sampling error Happens when a pollster draws an improper sample 10.3

27. Limited Response Option Yes/No (Approve/Disapprove) May not give respondents sufficient room to answer “Feeling thermometer” Respondents rate feelings 0-100 10.3

28. Lack of Information and Difficulty Measuring Intensity Filter questions Gauge how much respondents know about or have thought about an issue Responses to personal questions/moral value questions Feelings stronger about some issues 10.3

29. 10.3 Can polls measure intensity of opinion?

30. Lack of Interest in Political Issues Many people lack an opinion on certain policies Policies that don’t affect people directly Policies that don’t involve moral values Foreign policy Less likely to generate interest Domestic policy More likely to generate interest 10.3

31. Explore Public Opinion: What Do Young People Think about Politics Today? 10.3 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/long/long_oconnor_mpslag_12/pex/pex10.html

32. Forming Political Opinions 10.4 • Demographic Characteristics • Family, Peers, and School • The Mass Media • Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers • Political Knowledge

33. POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION

34. POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION • AN ONGOING, LIFE-LONG PROCESS: ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION, BELIEFS, ATTITUDES, AND VALUES. • POLITICAL SOCIALIZATIONHELPS US COMPREHEND THE POLITICAL SYSTEM. • HELPS US LEARN TO BE CITIZENS. (MEMBERS OF A POLITICAL SOCIETY)

35. AGENTS OF SOCIALIZATION PEOPLE & INSTITUTIONS WE COME IN CONTACT WITH THAT INFLUENCE OUR BELIEFS

36. Family, Peers, and School Family influence #1 Agent of Political Socialization Children learn political beliefs at early age Political socialization in school Peers are influential in middle or high school 10.4

37. FAMILY HAS STRONGEST INFLUENCE ON PARTY I.D. 98% HOW DOES FAMILY INFLUENCE OUR BELIEFS?

38. AGENT #2- SCHOOLS & EDUCATION HOW DOES THE EDUCATION WE RECEIVE IMPACT ON OUR POLITICAL VIEWS? PEERS DO YOU & YOUR FRIENDS DISCUSS ISSUES? STUDIES SHOW WHEN PEERS ENGAGE IN POLITICAL DISCUSSION, POLITICAL ATTITUDES ARE FORMED AND SOLIDIFIED

39. STUDIES SHOW THE MORE FORMAL EDUCATION ONE RECEIVES, THE MORE KNOWLEDGE OF ISSUES AND EVENTS, THE MORE LIKELY TO PARTICIPATE

40. Demographic Characteristics Race and ethnicity Differences among and within races and ethnicities Age affects political socialization Aging increases your political participation and the strength of your party attachment. Religion shapes political beliefs Gender Women historically more liberal than men 10.4

41. 10.4 TABLE 10.1: Do men and women think differently about political issues?

42. 10.4 How do you encourage young women to think about careers in politics?

43. 10.4 FIGURE 10.3: What are the ideological identifications of first-year college students?

44. The Mass Media Traditional news sources Americans are turning away from them Nontraditional news media Talk radio, online magazines, blogs Cable and Internet Often skewed 10.4

45. MOST GET INFORMATION FROM TELEVISION PEOPLE TEND TO GRAVITATE TOWARDS MEDIA THAT MATCHES THEIR VIEWS

46. Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers Political leaders use media to influence public President uses media as a bully pulpit 10.4

47. INTEREST GROUPS

48. PEOPLE ARE ATTRACTED TO GROUPS WITH SIMILAR VIEWS - GROUPS SUPPORT AND STRENGTHEN PARTY I.D. -GROUPS HELP INSPIRE POLITICAL PARTICIPATION

49. Political Knowledge Gender gap Also affected by education, number of children, and marital status Political knowledge and political participation Have a reciprocal effect on each other Americans’ level of civic knowledge Lower than 50 years ago 10.4

50. 10.4 TABLE 10.2: What is the extent of Americans’ political knowledge?