PUBLIC OPINION AND POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION

1. PUBLIC OPINION AND POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION

2. Public opinion – the aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of the adult population Extremely dynamic; shaped by and shapes groups The private becomes public Distribution of Opinion Consensus : general agreement among the people Divisive Opinion: Public opinion that is polarized between two positions What is Public Opinion?

3. Shaping Opinion • Political Socialization - The process in which individuals acquire political beliefs and values • Major Agents of Socialization • Family • School • Peers • Media (opinion leaders)

4. The Family and Education • Family: Most important agent of socialization • Families have similar political views • Usually hold same party affiliation as parents • Influence of adult children in 2008 election • School: pass on American political values • Significant formal influence • Intentional via curriculum • Unintentional via teacher behavior and attitude

5. Peer groups and Media • Peer Groups: increases in influence with age • May stem from group participation in the political • Often indirect; shapes how to behave in relationships, transmission of social behavior • Media: Communicates the issues • Often most common connection to opinion leaders • Agenda Setting

6. Other Factors • Political Events • Lifestyle effect: Certain attitudes at certain ages • Being a teenager vs. being a parent • Generational effect: event that has lasting impact • Watergate and 9/11 • Religion – predicts party affiliation and voting behavior • Social Status Theory • Catholics & Jews – Associated with the Democratic Party because used to be poor and therefore democratic. • Religious Tradition Theory: The moral teachings guides party affiliation. • Jews – Social justice • Protestants – Personal salvation

7. Other Factors • Identity Politics • Socio-Economic Status • Race and Ethnicity • Gender • Region • Election specific-factors • Party Identification • Perception of the Candidates • Issue Preferences

8. Voting Behavior

9. Voting Behavior

10. Opinion Polling

11. How We Form Political Opinions Personal Beliefs Political Knowledge Cues From Leaders Political Opinions

12. Opinion Polls Polls are interviews or surveys of a sample of citizens used to estimate how the public feels about an issue or set of issues.

13. Early Efforts to Influence and Measure Public Opinion • Public opinion polling as we know it today developed in the 1930s. • As early as 1824, newspapers have tried to predict election winners using polls. • Literary Digest used straw polls that are now seen as highly problematic. • The American Voter (1960) continues to influence the way we think of mass attitudes and behavior. • studied the 1952 & 1956 elections; discussed how class coalitions led to party affiliation.

14. How We Measure Public Opinion In order for a poll to be reliable, it must have: • Proper question wording (validity) • An accurate sample (reliability) • contacting respondents – Since 95% of Americans have phones, random phone calling would be a valid method. • Problem: Cell phones

15. Sampling Techniques • Representative Sampling - To accurately predict the whole based on only a sample, the sample must be representative. • Sample of interviewees should reflect population as a whole • Randomness - A purely random sample will be representative within the stated margin of error. • every person in the defined population has to have an equal chance of being selected • The larger the sample of the population, the smaller the margin of error • quota sampling: researchers decide how many persons of certain types they need in the survey: ex. minorities, women, or farmers • Within the categories, the sample may be nonrandom and therefore biased. • The Importance of Accuracy - interview about 1500 individuals to measure sentiment of 200 million American adults • Their results have a high probability of being correct—within a margin of three percentage points—and they have had some notable successes in accurately predicting election results.

16. Problems with Polls • Sampling Errors: the difference between a sample’s results and the true result if the entire population had been interviewed. • The sample is too small • Do not know how to correct for common biases in samples. • Poll Questions: The design of a question can affect the result. • Yes/no answers are a problem if the issue admits to shades of gray • Often, people will attempt to please the interviewer • Push Polls: attempts to spread negative statements about a candidate by posing as a pollster and using long questions containing information about the opposition • Both candidates and advocacy groups use push polls.

17. How We Measure Public Opinion • In general, do not trust a poll that does not tell you the question wording, the sampling method, and the ways in which respondents were contacted. • Reputable pollsters will also tell you the number of respondents (the 'n') and the error rate (+ or - 5%). • Any poll that tells you to call 555-5554 for yes and 555-5555 for no is unscientific and unreliable. This is not a random sample at all!

18. Types of Polls • Tracking polls--continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise and fall in popularity. These may be a decent measure of trends. • Exit polls--polls conducted at polling places on election day. • Deliberative polls--a new kind of poll first tried in 1996. A relatively large scientific sample of Americans (600) were selected for intensive briefings, discussions, and presentations about issue clusters including foreign affairs, the family, and the economy. • A deliberative poll attempts to measure what the public would think if they had better opportunities to thoughtfully consider the issues first.