Far and few between? The child-bearing decisions of Portuguese women

1. Far and few between? The child-bearing decisions of Portuguese women Author: Márton Varga Conference on the Impact of Day-Care Services in Visegrad Countries. Budapest, 2012.

2. Can we predict their childbearing decisions?

3. QUESTIONS • DATA and METHODOLOGY • How many children will women have? • When do they give birth? • Main source: Fertility and Family Survey • Sample: 5484 Portuguese women (1947-79) • Technique: Split-population survival estimation

4. Education • MAIN RESULTS • Siblings • Education leads to delayed childbearing and a longer interval between the second and third birth. University graduates are more likely to have the third child. • More siblings are associated with a higher probability of having the second child. • Younger cohorts are more likely to postpone childbearing, to remain childless, and to have fewer children. • Age at birth • Other • Economy • Cohort • Changes in the unemployment rate and childcare availability do not influence fertility timing. • Mothers, who were older at their last delivery, have a lower probability of the consequent birth, but they wait less if they decide to have another child. • 10% remain childless, 30 % stop at one child, while 70% stop at two children.

5. MOTIVATION

6. FIGURE 1. KAPLAN MEIER SURVIVAL ESTIMATES Note:Duration is measured from the age of 14 and from the 3rd quarter after the last birth.

7. Important • THE SPLIT-POPULATION MODEL • means lower probability of • NOT having another child. • means longer waiting time.

8. Education • Siblings • Age at birth • Economy • Cohort

9. 70.4% stop at two children • Probability of stop at two children • 33.9% • Probability of stop at two children • 81.7% • Probability of stop at two children • 86.3%

10. FINAL REMARKS • Results are robust • Results are plausible • Deserves more investigation

11. Thank you for the attention!

12. Education • Siblings • Economy • Cohort

13. Education • Siblings • Age at birth • Economy • Cohort

14. FIGURE 1. FIRST BIRTH TIMING, KAPLAN MEIER SURVIVAL AND SMOOTHED HAZARD ESTIMATES Note:Duration is measured from the age of 14.

15. FIGURE 2. SECOND BIRTH TIMING, KAPLAN MEIER SURVIVAL AND SMOOTHED HAZARD ESTIMATES Note: Duration is measured from the 3rd quarter after the first delivery.

16. FIGURE 3. FIRST BIRTH TIMING, KAPLAN MEIER SURVIVAL AND SMOOTHED HAZARD ESTIMATES Note: Duration is measured from the 3rd quarter after the second delivery.