Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: dan.kahan@yale

1. Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: dan.kahan@yale.edu papers,etc: www.culturalcognition.net

2. www.culturalcognition.net Cultural Cognition, Climate Change, and the Science Communication Problem

3. Climate Change Science and the “ScienceCommunication Problem” • Two hypotheses • The pathology: "Tragedy of the risk perceptions commons” • The treatment: Two-Track Communication • The public irrationality thesis ("PIT") • b. The cultural cognition thesis

4. Climate Change Science and the “ScienceCommunication Problem” • Two hypotheses • The pathology: "Tragedy of the risk perceptions commons” • The treatment: Two-Track Communication • The public irrationality thesis ("PIT") • b. The cultural cognition thesis

5. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Greater perceived risk (z-score) Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

6. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” PIT prediction: Science Illiteracy & Bounded Rationality Greater High Sci. litearcy/System 2 perceived risk (z-score) Low Sci. litearcy/System 1 Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

7. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Greater Risk PIT prediction PIT prediction actual variance actual variance perceived risk (z-score) Lesser Risk low high low high Science literacy Numeracy U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

8. Climate Change Science and the “ScienceCommunication Problem” • Two hypotheses • The pathology: "Tragedy of the risk perceptions commons” • The treatment: Two-Track Communication • The public irrationality thesis ("PIT") • b. The cultural cognition thesis

9. Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Abortion procedure industry, technology Guns/Gun Control compulsory psychiatric treatment Individualism Communitarianism Abortion procedure industry, technology compulsory psychiatric treatment Guns/Gun Control Egalitarianism

10. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Cultural Variance Greater perceived risk (z-score) Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

11. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Cultural Variance Greater Egalitarian Communitarian Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarchical Individualist Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

12. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Cultural variance conditional on sci. literacy/numeracy? Greater Egalitarian Communitarian Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarchical Individualist Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

13. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute Greater Egalitarian Communitarian Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarchical Individualist Lesser low high Scilit/num Scale U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

14. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy LowSci lit/num. HierarcIndivid HighSci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser low high Scilit/num Scale U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

15. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy LowSci lit/num. HierarcIndivid HighSci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser low high Scilit/num Scale U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

16. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy LowSci lit/num. HierarcIndivid HighSci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser low high Scilit/num Scale U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

17. Climate Change Science and the “ScienceCommunication Problem” • Two hypotheses • The pathology: “Tragedy of the risk perceptions commons” • The treatment: Two-Track Communication  a. The public irrationality thesis ("PIT") b. The cultural cognition thesis Individual expressiverationality Collective welfare irrationality

18. Culturally motivated search & assimilation • Cultural source credibility effect • Cultural availability effect • 4. Culturally motivated system(atic) 2 reasoning Mechanisms of cultural cognition • Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Slovic, P., Gastil, J. & Cohen, G. Cultural Cognition of the Risks and Benefits of Nanotechnology. Nature Nanotechnology 4, 87-91 (2009) • Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition. L. & Human Behavior 34, 501-516 (2010) • Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-174 (2011)

19. Culturally Identifiable Experts Hierarchy Communitarianism Individualism Egalitarianism Source: Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition. L. & Human Behavior 34, 501-516 (2010).

20. Culturally motivated search & assimilation • Cultural source credibility effect • Cultural availability effect • 4. Culturally motivated system(atic) 2 reasoning Mechanisms of cultural cognition • Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Slovic, P., Gastil, J. & Cohen, G. Cultural Cognition of the Risks and Benefits of Nanotechnology. Nature Nanotechnology 4, 87-91 (2009) • Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition. L. & Human Behavior 34, 501-516 (2010) • Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-174 (2011)

21. Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-74(2011).

22. Climate Change High Risk (science conclusive) Low Risk (science inconclusive)

23. Geologic Isolation of Nuclear Wastes High Risk (not safe) Low Risk (safe)

24. Concealed Carry Laws High Risk (Increase crime) Low Risk (Decrease Crime)

25. Culturally motivated search & assimilation • Cultural source credibility effect • Cultural availability effect • 4. Culturally motivated system(atic) 2 reasoning Mechanisms of cultural cognition • Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Slovic, P., Gastil, J. & Cohen, G. Cultural Cognition of the Risks and Benefits of Nanotechnology. Nature Nanotechnology 4, 87-91 (2009) • Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition. L. & Human Behavior 34, 501-516 (2010) • Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-174 (2011)

26. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy LowSci lit/num. HierarcIndivid HighSci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser low high Scilit/num Scale U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

27. Culturally motivated search & assimilation • Cultural source credibility effect • Cultural availability effect • 4. Culturally motivated system(atic) 2 reasoning Mechanisms of cultural cognition • Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Slovic, P., Gastil, J. & Cohen, G. Cultural Cognition of the Risks and Benefits of Nanotechnology. Nature Nanotechnology 4, 87-91 (2009) • Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition. L. & Human Behavior 34, 501-516 (2010) • Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-174 (2011)

28. Climate Change Science and the “ScienceCommunication Problem” • Two hypotheses • The pathology: "Tragedy of the risk perceptions commons” • The treatment: Two-Track Communication  a. The public irrationality thesis ("PIT") b. The cultural cognition thesis  Individual expressiverationality Collective welfare irrationality

30. study_dismiss scale (α = 0.85)

31. study_dismiss scale (α = 0.85)

32. Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Climate change Individualism Communitarianism Climate change Egalitarianism

33. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

34. Control Condition

35. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

36. Anti-pollution Condition

37. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

38. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

39. Geoengineering Condition

40. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

41. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

42. Polarization more polarization z_Study dismiss 2 less polarization anti-pollution

43. Anti-pollution Condition

44. Geoengineering Condition

45. Polarization more polarization z_Study dismiss 2 less polarization anti-pollution

46. Climate Change Science and the “ScienceCommunication Problem” • Two hypotheses • The pathology: "Tragedy of the risk perceptions commons” • The treatment: Two-Track Communication  a. The public irrationality thesis ("PIT") b. The cultural cognition thesis  Individual expressiverationality Collective welfare irrationality 

47. Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment Go to www.culturalcognition.net!

49. “The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...” Pct. Agree BalancedArgument No Argument

50. “The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...” Pct. Agree BalancedArgument No Argument