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Long-term Scenarios for Climate Change-Implications for Energy, GHG Emissions and Air Quality

Long-term Scenarios for Climate Change-Implications for Energy, GHG Emissions and Air Quality. Shilpa Rao, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria Workshop on aspirational targets, Utrecht, Mar 5 2009. Trends in Long-Term Scenario Development.

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Long-term Scenarios for Climate Change-Implications for Energy, GHG Emissions and Air Quality

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  1. Long-term Scenarios for Climate Change-Implications for Energy, GHG Emissions and Air Quality Shilpa Rao, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria Workshop on aspirational targets, Utrecht, Mar 5 2009

  2. Trends in Long-TermScenario Development • SRES scenarios (IPCC 2001) developed to examine a range of economic and demographic development outcomes- representative of uncertainty range • Scenarios broadly reflect policies that influence GHG emission drivers, such as demographic change, social and economic development, technological change, resource use, and pollution management. • Recent long-term scenario development exercises are oriented towards examining wide range of climate change outcomes –i.e. climate first thinking

  3. Reference Concentration Pathway • A joint community effort between Integrated Assessment Modelers (IAMs) and Earth System Modelers (ESMs) • Participation of experts from air pollution and climate, for gridded level inventory data and climate model runs • Models need to model all radiative forcing factors (full suite of GHGs, aerosols, chemically active gases, and land use/land cover) • Scenarios extend to 2300 • Produce data at higher resolution for experimental climate change and atmospheric chemistry projections Source: IAM Workshop, Vienna, 2008

  4. Emissions Pathways

  5. Integrated Scenario Analysis at IIASA • Explore uncertainty of long-term development under climate constraints through limited set of scenarios (3):A2r, B2, B1 • Scenario taxonomy (H/M/L) based on:-- emissions,-- vulnerability, -- stabilization levels, • Integration: energy – agriculture – forestry sectors • Multi-gas analysis • Assess also implications of stabilization:-- technology choice (e.g. efficiency vs. supply)-- sectorial measures (which gas, when, where)-- economics (costs and savings) -- geopolitics of energy (winners/losers)

  6. IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework GHG Emissions Industry, Energy, and Land-based Mitigation Deforestation & Afforestation (modeled on 0.5 x 0.5)

  7. Scenario Overview (World by 2100)

  8. Evolution of Global Primary EnergyHistorical Development Biomass (including Non-Commercial) Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

  9. Evolution of Global Primary EnergyHistorical Development Biomass (including Non-Commercial) Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

  10. Evolution of Global Primary EnergyHistorical Development Biomass (including Non-Commercial) Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

  11. Evolution of Global Primary EnergyA2r GGI Scenario Biomass (including Non-Commercial) Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

  12. Evolution of Global Primary EnergyB2 GGI Scenario Biomass (including Non-Commercial) Renewables Gas Nuclear Oil Coal

  13. Evolution of Global Primary EnergyB1 GGI Scenario Biomass (including Non-Commercial) Renewables Gas Oil Nuclear Coal

  14. Global Liquids SupplyA2r Scenario

  15. Global Liquids SupplyA2r Scenario

  16. Global Liquids SupplyA2r Scenario

  17. Global Liquids SupplyA2r Scenario

  18. Global Liquids SupplyB1 Scenario

  19. Global Liquids SupplyB1 Scenario

  20. Global Liquids SupplyB1 Scenario

  21. Global Liquids SupplyB1 Scenario

  22. Climate Stabilization Scenarios Climate Sensitivity ~2.5 degrees

  23. Emissions & Reduction MeasuresPrincipal technology clusters – 1390 ppm target

  24. Emissions & Reduction MeasuresPrincipal technology clusters – 1090 ppm target

  25. Emissions & Reduction MeasuresPrincipal technology clusters – 970 ppm target

  26. Emissions & Reduction MeasuresPrincipal technology clusters – 820 ppm target

  27. Emissions & Reduction MeasuresPrincipal technology clusters – 670 ppm target

  28. Emissions & Reduction MeasuresPrincipal technology clusters – 480 ppm target

  29. Contribution by GHG to Mitigation

  30. Contribution by Sector to Mitigation

  31. Baseline Scenarios Primary Energy per Capita

  32. Baseline Scenarios Emission Intensity

  33. A2r Climate Policy-670 ppm CO2eq.

  34. Electricity GenerationWestern Europe, A2r_670

  35. Electricity GenerationCentrally Planned Asia, A2r_670

  36. Transport SectorCentrally Planned Asia A2r_670

  37. Residential SectorCentrally Planned Asia, A2r_670

  38. NOX Emissions, A2r scenario Western Europe

  39. NOX Emissions, A2r scenario China

  40. BC Emissions, A2r • In industrialized countries emissions decline in transport and industrial sectors, due to stringent regulations, technology improvement and fuel switching (synthetic fuels, hydrogen) • In developing countries, there is a shift from traditional fuels to gas and liquid-based systems in the residential sector

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