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Naming Emissions Scenarios for Regional Haze Air Quality Modeling

Naming Emissions Scenarios for Regional Haze Air Quality Modeling. Inter-RPO Modeling Discussion Group May 25-26, 2004 – Denver, CO. Specify Emissions & Related Characteristics to Name Emissions Scenarios. Area Non Road Mobile Non Road Mobile (CA) Road Dust On Road Mobile

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Naming Emissions Scenarios for Regional Haze Air Quality Modeling

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  1. Naming Emissions Scenarios for Regional Haze Air Quality Modeling Inter-RPO Modeling Discussion Group May 25-26, 2004 – Denver, CO

  2. Specify Emissions & Related Characteristics to Name Emissions Scenarios Area Non Road Mobile Non Road Mobile (CA) Road Dust On Road Mobile On Road Mobile (CA) Wild Fires Agricultural Fires Rx Fires Point Biogenics Windblown Dust Canada Mexico Off-Shore Sources Spatial surrogates Temporal profiles Speciation Meteorological Data Model Domain Boundary Conditions

  3. Emission Inventory Types • Versions of 2002 EI for Performance Evaluation Modeling • Optional 2000-04 EI refinement for Baseline Visibility Conditions Modeling • 2018 EI for Projection Base Case Modeling • 2018 EI Control Strategy Scenarios (multiple versions, up to 5)

  4. 2002 Performance Evaluation Modeling EI Initial 2002 Performance Evaluation Modeling • Complete end of 2004 • Use "2002-like" interim EIs • Geographic Source Apportionment • Initial Natural/Anthropogenic

  5. 2002 Performance Evaluation Modeling EI, continued • Final 2002 Performance Evaluation Modeling • Complete first half 2005 • Use actual 2002 EIs • Final (revised) Geographic Source Apportionment • Final (revised) Natural/Anthropogenic • Basis of Relative Reduction Factors • Estimate to compare to 2002 monitored values • Compare to 2000-04 monitored baseline values • Last use of actual emissions

  6. 2000-04 Baseline Visibility Conditions EI Baseline Visibility Modeling • Complete mid-2005 • Use 2000-04 representative baseline period EIs for selected source categories (keep final 2002 for others) • Fire • Windblown Dust • Optional, may be done as sensitivity cases • Products • Estimate to compare to monitored baseline values • Substitute as basis for RRFs • Refined Geographic Source Apportionment • Refined Natural/Anthropogenic

  7. 2018 Base Case Projection EI 2018 Base Case Modeling • Complete mid-2005 • Prepare/Use emissions projections accounting for: • 1) emissions control rules/programs "on the books" as of 2004 • 2) Extrapolating from: • Final 2002 Performance Evaluation results, or • Baseline Visibility results • Is intermediate year (2009, 2010, 2015) needed for regional haze?

  8. 2018 Control Strategy EI Scenarios 2018 Control Strategy Modeling Scenarios #1, 2, 3 … • Exact names & purposes TBD by RPO region • Multiple versions, up to 5 • Complete early 2006 • Prepare/Use emissions changes accounting for: • 1) Emissions control program options (to be implemented by 2018) • 2) Extrapolating from 2018 Base Case Modeling results • Is intermediate year (2009, 2010, 2015) needed for regional haze?

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