What have we delivered? Products, understanding Urban water, ecology, integrated management

1. What have we delivered?Products, understandingUrban water, ecology, integrated management Ralph Ogden Executive Manager, Urban & Ecology Canberra Nov 23 2011

2. Stages in NRM problem solving using technology • Problem definition – “what is my problem or task?” • Discuss, build consensus • Diagnose problems, determine focus for solutions • Quantitative, model, solution focused – “how do I solve it?” • Elements to systems • Integration of systems – ecology, hydrology, planning, etc. • Decision focused – “what is the solution?...which options best?” • Compare some options & report or select favoured • Compare all options & select the best set increased sophistication

3. Challenges in creating ecological decision support tools • Compared to hydrology, sediments, nutrients: • Much wider variety of species, habitats, processes of interest • Less predictable • more drivers affecting these – biological as well as physical • harder to extrapolate from one site to another – species have adapted to subtle differences between regions over many millions of years • As a result, modelling & prediction less well established as practice, which is also an impediment

4. Scope of ecology vs water quality/quantity problems • Ecological mgt problemsWater quality & quantity • mgt problems • Possible causes • Primary causes • All solutions • Chosen solution problem solution

5. Water quality & quantity models greatly constrain the problem definition and provide a standard, accepted solution • No equivalent comprehensive modelling framework for eco-problem solving

6. Therefore for Ecology we break the task into two stages:Stage 1 – problem definition • Problem definition – “what is my problem or task?” • Discuss, build consensus • Diagnose problems, determine focus for solutions • Quantitative, model, solution focused – “how do I solve it?” • Elements to systems • Integration of systems – ecology, hydrology, planning, etc. • Decision focused – “what is the solution?...which options best?” • Compare some options & report or select favoured • Compare all options & select the best set increased sophistication

7. Elements of ecological problem definition • Discuss, build consensus • Collect scientific evidence and diagnose problems • Determine focus for solutions

8. Conceptual modelling • Concept – Dynamic cartoons • Gain consensus in system understanding and problem definition

9. Eco Evidence – capture science & contextual info Online database for recording & retrieving studies & metadata concerning associations between a cause (X) & an effect (Y) http://www.toolkit.net.au/Tools/Eco-Evidence

10. Eco Evidence – how does the water system behave? test assumptions, diagnose problems, focus solutions

11. Web Eco Evidence can be linked to national/international databases Standards allow databases to connect Eco Evidence Exchange EU eWater Eco Evidence US EPA CADLIT Supported by a growing community for evidence-based practice

12. Stage 2 – solution formulation for eco-problems • Problem definition – “what is my problem or task?” • Discuss, build consensus • Diagnose problems, determine focus for solutions • Quantitative, model, solution focused – “how do I solve it?” • Elements to systems • Integration of systems – ecology, hydrology, planning, etc. • Decision focused – “what is the solution?...which options best?” • Compare some options & report or select favoured • Compare all options & select the best set increased sophistication

13. Formulating ecological solutions • Collect quantitative data • Model elements and systems • Integrate systems – ecology, hydrology, planning, etc • Compare different scenarios (e.g. e-flows or climate change) and either report on these or ‘game’ these and choose one to implement

14. Flow regime Flow history Decades + Flood pulse frequency Flow/Flood pulse Bankfull stage Years - Decades Flood pulse duration Hours to Months Once past the problem definition stage, the solution is quantitative – how much, how often, when, where?

15. Eco Modeller – Define species water requirements and predict the impact of alternative regimes

16. Entry level for ecologists into modelling domain • Determine ecological responses to drivers, including mgt ones • Compare management scenarios and choose preferred one

17. Eco Modeller – some applications • Fitzroy – 7 models • Other coastal Qld catchments • Estuarine response models, Queensland & NSW • Murray – Hattah • Coorong • South Australia • Victoria

18. Monitoring & assessment products • Water Quality Analyser • Process or clean up data • Estimate pollutant loads • Trend assessment • Compare with standards and report • Set water quality guidelines • AUSRIVAS – a leading biological assessment product for over a decade

19. eFlow Predictor – a level up in solution integration • Convert a set of environmental flow requirements into an environmental flow • Game different eflow scenarios and pick the best performing, e.g. the one that satisfies the greatest number of environmental flow requirements

20. Integrate ecology into Source – EcoDSS systemtop level in solution integration • Environmental demand module • Create an environmental demand in Source  • Represent the environment as a water user

21. Or integrate with external tools – EcoDSS systems top level in solution integration • Lowbidgee – DSS for planning & operations in the river-wetland complex – NSW DECCW • IQQM (Source) – Flood model, SKM • Eco Modeller – knowledge: local managers & scientists • Hattah lakes – DSS for managing species in this ecological asset – MDBA • MSM BIGMOD – Eco Modeller • Scientists – eWater, MDFRC • Yarra – DSS for managing DO impacts – DSE, Melbourne Water • Source – External DO model • Eco-research

22. Monitoring & assessment toolstop level in solution integration • Framework for Assessing River and Wetland Health (FARWH) • NWC funded, eWater supported • Approach to consistent M&E at basin-wide & national-scales

23. Complementary new knowledge from ecological research –e.g. modeling fish population persistence in intermittent rivers • Nick Bond • Dave Crook James Fawcett • Jon Marshall Will Shenton • Harry Balcombe Jane Hughes • Joel Huey Angela Arthington • Norbert Menke Jaye Lobegeiger

24. Golden perch, Moonie R • Models predict persistence of M. ambigua under current hydro-climatic regime • Is the model useful? and can we trust it? • Precise predictions? ✗ • Formalising knowledge & hypotheses? ✓ • Determining what variables matter? ✓ • Hueristic ‘gaming’ tool? ✓ • Supporting management decisions? ✓ • Baseline for assessing surprises – learning by failure? ✓

25. Other CRC systems R&D – Ecology Ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA) – Arthington, Bunn et al. Environmental Flows: Science and Management. Freshwater Biology 55 (1), 260 pp. Arthington et al. Eds. Longitudinal trends in carbon – dominance of algae, DOC for microbial loops – Hadwen et al. Estuarine response models – Halliday, Potts, Ferguson et al. Fish behaviour in response to low DO – Crook et al. Mosquito response models to stormwater pond levels – Dyer et al. Overall: >200 peer-reviewed publications usually 6-12 publications per product

26. Ecology capability – conclusion • Never more than a year or three away from a solution i.e. solutions can be found in a reasonable timeframe

27. Urban water management

28. Urban products cover breadth of problem solving • Problem definition – “what is my problem or task?” • Discuss, build consensus • Diagnose problems, determine focus for solutions • Quantitative, model, solution focused – “how do I solve it?” • Elements to systems • Integration of systems – ecology, hydrology, planning, etc. • Decision focused – “what is the solution?...which options best?” • Compare some options & report or select favoured • Compare all options & select the best set increased sophistication

29. Urban Developer Allotment to suburb scale IUWM • WSUD strategies – new or retrofit • Alternative water supplies • Stormwater • Rainwater • Wastewater • Centralised & decentralised • End-use simulation, demand behaviour via probabilistic demands • Simulating across hydrological cycle – wet and dry – including design rainfalls • Integrate systems at a range of scales – lot to suburb • Variable time steps, 15 seconds – day

30. Simulation options Flexibility Link types Node model types Routing types Water Use models Link to Toolkit

31. Urban functionality in Source.IMS Regional scale IUWM Cities can now be considered – 1) Alongside rural irrigation, hydro, and environmental assets Urban demand Rural to urban trading 2) Within their water supply catchments – headworks, demand management, decentralised alternative supplies Upscaling local effects using Urban Developer for much more refined understanding of demand

32. MUSICstormwater hydrology and pollution impacts Key features: • Pollutant modelling • Water balance • Stormwater harvesting • Stormwater reuse • Life cycle costing Treatment devices: • Bioretention • Media filtration • Infiltration • Wetland • Gross Pollutant Trap • Swale • Pond

33. Advanced decision support addresses... • Problem definition – “what is my problem or task?” • Discuss, build consensus • Diagnose problems, determine focus for solutions • Quantitative, model, solution focused – “how do I solve it?” • Elements to systems • Integration of systems – ecology, hydrology, planning, etc. • Decision focused – “what is the solution?...which options best?” • Compare some options & report or select favoured • Compare all options & select the best set increased sophistication

34. 2 broad approaches to decision support for choosing options in NRM • Compare some options & report result or select preferred option • Compare all options & select the best set #2 is called ‘decision modelling’ and provides advanced decision support

35. Source: ACTEW website Case Study: ACT System Decision modelling

36. Decision modelling example: Operation of the ACT Water Supply System • Management objectives • Minimise cost • Minimise time in restrictions • Decision variables (mgt ‘levers’) • Pumping thresholds • M’bidgeeto Googong transfer • Cotter to Googong transfer • Bendorato Googong transfer • Pumping, treating, storing systems • Operating rules for dams • Triggers for water restrictions • SW harvesting, WW recycling Time in restrictions Least time in restrictions solution • Set up model with decision variables as inputs and evaluated objectives as outputs • Run model ca. 50,000 times, each with different permutation of decision variables • All ‘solutions’ – individual permutations of decision variables – plotted in this bivariate space • Edge of the space (blue dots and line) identifies subset of solutions that minimises time in restrictions and costs, & exposes tradeoffs between these

37. www.images.act.gov.au Decision modelling: works equally well for planning • Objectives • Minimise cost • Minimise time in restrictions • Maximise water security • Maximise (or meet targets) for threatened fish in water supply stream corridors • Decision variables (management levers) • Pumping thresholds between storages • Operating rules for dams • Triggers for water restrictions • SW harvesting, WW recycling

38. Outputs: decision science & modelling products • 1) Best Practice Modelling guidelines • Decision modelling • Risk assessment framework • 2) Products • Insight: • Examine trade-offs between competing NRM objectives • MCAT: • Evaluate a set of decision options along a variety of criteria

39. Complementary urban research End-use modeling Understanding of trade-offs between robustness and efficiency of possible management responses to climate change New concepts, e.g. ‘minimising regret’ Efficacy of optimisation algorithms used in tools Risk assessment framework developed as part of ACT Focus Catchment Overall: >110 peer-reviewed publications

40. Final points • Built capability for ecological problem solving • New urban products – at cluster & regional scales – represent big advances on existing ones • Products and knowledge allow users to: • Employ ‘best available science’ in management • Integrate water quantity & quality, catchment & eco mgt • Follow transparent, repeatable & consistent best-practice