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WFO Omaha/Valley Nebraska (OAX) Warning Ways, Woes, and Wishes

WFO Omaha/Valley Nebraska (OAX) Warning Ways, Woes, and Wishes. Daniel Nietfeld Science and Operations Officer. Number of Warnings by WFO 1995 - 2004. We use all 3 Pieces to the Warning Puzzle…. Ground Truth (Spotters). Radar. Environment. Warning Operations. Two People Per Sector

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WFO Omaha/Valley Nebraska (OAX) Warning Ways, Woes, and Wishes

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  1. WFO Omaha/Valley Nebraska (OAX)Warning Ways, Woes, and Wishes Daniel Nietfeld Science and Operations Officer NOAA’s National Weather Service WFO Omaha/Valley

  2. Number of Warnings by WFO 1995 - 2004

  3. We use all 3 Pieces to the Warning Puzzle… Ground Truth (Spotters) Radar Environment

  4. Warning Operations • Two People Per Sector • Radar Meteorologist • Product Meteorologist • Separate Mesoscale Analyst • Sector #1, Sector #2, and Meso workstations in a “circle within the circle”

  5. OAX Operations Area Layout

  6. Warning Sector #1 Mesoanalyst Products COMMS (NAWAS / Phones) RADAR Products RADAR Warning Sector #2

  7. HAMS Warning Sector #1 RADAR Warning Sector #2 Products Mesoanalyst COMMS (NAWAS / Phones)

  8. RADAR Products

  9. 2 People Per Sector • Eyes Never off RADAR • Detail and QC can be added to products • RADAR person can ask for second opinion on “how does this look to you?” • Product person can ask, “How does this sound?” • Allows for multiple SVSs per warning without compromising RADAR storm interrogation

  10. 2 People Per Sector • Requires more people in the office

  11. OAX Radar Methodology • Storm-Structure Mentality • 4-Panel and All-Tilts Methodology to see “slices” of the storm • Use “Base Products” as opposed to “Volume Products” • Most real-time information • We do not depend on Algorithms (use as a “guidance” products to alert us)

  12. Would like to see better All-Tilts Navigation Current slice

  13. A Comprehensive Hail Warning Technique Developed Across the Central Plains Rod Donavon National Weather Service Des Moines, IA (DMX) Correlation between large hail and the height of the 50 dbZ echo as a function of the freezing level

  14. 50 dBZ Echo Height Warning Criterion • FZLVL(AGL) Warning Criteria (AGL) • 6000 ft 15000 ft • 6500 ft 16000 ft • 7000 ft 17000 ft • 7500 ft 18000 ft • 8000 ft 19000 ft • 8500 ft 20000 ft • 9000 ft 21000 ft • 9500 ft 22000 ft • 10000 ft 23000 ft • 10500 ft 24500 ft • 11000 ft 26000 ft • 11500 ft 28000 ft • 12000 ft 30000 ft • 12500 ft 32000 ft • 13000 ft 34000 ft • 13500 ft 36000 ft • 14000 ft 38000 ft • 14500 ft 40000 ft • 15000 ft 42000 ft

  15. Some Use of: • VIL and DVIL • Storm Top Divergence • LRM mid and high

  16. SCAN and FFMP • Very limited use of SCAN • First Echo • Trends of core height, max dbZ • EXTENSIVE use of FFMP • Wonderful program

  17. Ground Truth • Becoming the #1 problem with the warning process, mainly contributing to FAR • Supercell storm • mid level weak-moderate rotation • Hook echo • LCL 2500 meters, with LFC 3200 meters • Law Enforcement reports a tornado, but is really just a lot of dust. We have no choice but to issue a tornado warning!

  18. May 17, 2005 Arnold Nebraska Dry Microburst

  19. May 10, 2005 Near Grand Island, NE LFC Ht.

  20. May 10, 2005 Grand Island NE Supercell

  21. WarnGenWe Basically Like it, but… • Slowing down too much • Buggy, glitchy, too many errors • System “froze up” this spring at OAX • Difficult to match SVS to SVR/TOR • Suggest color coding warnings to polygons/statements • Storm Motion Limitations • Only allows for a linear storm motion

  22. WarnGen • Template syntax is too code-oriented • Difficult to ingest GIS data into warnings • Difficult getting watch data into warnings • Too much manual tweaking of polygons (minor issue)

  23. WarnGen Polygons“Warnings Gone Wild”

  24. Warning Software • We use a different program to issue warnings for: • Tornadoes/Severe Thunderstorms • River floods • Winter Storms • Airport Weather Warnings • Short Term Forecast applications? • Too many paper/written logs/forms, etc…

  25. Warning NWP Assistance ? • Run a simulation of a particular storm to see the NWP solution of that storm’s evolution in the next 1 to 2 hours • 4-D Assimilation with RADAR data, mesonet data, etc… • Run in-house at convective process scales • Run time in a few minutes (perhaps a new run with each new volume scan?) You told us to think big !

  26. Any New Software MUST Be: • Simple • Fast • NOT Cumbersome • Well Tested in the field

  27. May 22, 2004(Were there 6 tornadoes at 9:15 PM?) From a recent Media RADAR Seminar Who Spilled the box of Cheerios ?!

  28. May 22, 2004(Were there 9 tornadoes at 9:57 PM?) From a recent Media RADAR Seminar

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