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The Commodity Markets are huge The Dollarization of these markets has changed their dynamics .

A Critical Summary of the Commodity Markets by Paul Schwartzmeyer. The Commodity Markets are huge The Dollarization of these markets has changed their dynamics. Volatility. Weekly Gasoline Prices. Agriculture - Corn - Soybeans - Soybean oil - Wheat - Live cattle

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The Commodity Markets are huge The Dollarization of these markets has changed their dynamics .

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  1. A Critical Summary of the Commodity Markets by Paul Schwartzmeyer The Commodity Markets are huge The Dollarization of these markets has changed their dynamics.

  2. Volatility Weekly Gasoline Prices

  3. Agriculture - Corn - Soybeans - Soybean oil - Wheat - Live cattle - Feeder cattle - Milk - Palm Oil - Coffee - Cotton - Sugar - Rice - Cheese - Lumber - Pulp - Hogs - Etc.. Energy - Light Sweet crude - WTI - Brendt North Sea - Argus - Natural gas - Heating Oil - Ethanol - RBOB Gasoline - West Coast Gasoline - Low Sulfur Diesel - Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel - Electricity Western hub - MW peak Calendar Mo. - Appalachain Coal - Etc… • Metals • - Gold • - Gold Vol. Index • - Silver • Platinum • Palladium • Copper • Uranium • - Etc… Weather - US Cooling Monthly - US Cooling Seasonal - US Heating - US Weekly Weather - Canada Cooling Monthly - Asia/Pacific Monthly - Australia Monthly - Hurricane Seasonal - Snowfall Monthly Currencies - UD Dollar - British Pound - Canadian Dollar - Euro - New Zealand Dollar - Russian Ruble - Japanese Yen Equity Indexes - S&P 500 - E mini S&P 500 - Nasdaq 100 - DJ Real Estate - E mini Nifty Fifty A Sampling of Futures on the CME

  4. The decade long trend in commodity prices has been up.

  5. Standard and Poor’s 500 Stock Index Ten Year Chart Up about 15% over ten years. Or 1 1/2% per year

  6. The price of oil is up 300%

  7. The price of corn is up 250%.

  8. The price of gold is up 400%.

  9. Why have oil prices risen so far? Ghawar Fields: (Total barrels) East Texas 6 billion Ghawar 75 billion

  10. Why are commodity prices rising so fast? Let's look at oil... World's largest Oil fields... Burgan, Kuwait Bolivar Coastal, Venezuela Ghawar, Saudi Arabia Canterell, Mexico * Fields that service the US market

  11. Ghawar Field The Biggest of the Mega Fields Burgan 72 Billion Bolivar Coastal 32 Billion Ghawar 75 Billion Canterell 35 Billion Gas head driven

  12. US Oil Production fell as the mega Fields came online.

  13. Worldwide petroleum Shipping lanes

  14. Venezuela oil production Exports have been falling since 1999 Canterell oil production in Mexico Has fallen sharply

  15. Since 2002, China's oil imports have gone up over 300% And India's has gone up as well.

  16. Agriculture Corn Soybeans Wheat Cattle Milk Etc… China produces 21X more vegetables than the USA… despite a water shortage • Source: VGS-34/ Economic research service, USDA

  17. Third World meat consumption has gone up drastically, as it has leveled off in the developed world.

  18. The US Corn price was $2.50 a bushel for 30 years... Today it's Over $6 Even though corn yields have almost doubled.

  19. The US Soybean price was $6 a bushel for 30 years. Today is $13 Even though Soybean yields are up 80%

  20. Assuming the distribution remains constant... the simulation reveals that (by 2010), 180-220 million in rural areas will reach MPCE (MPCE.. income required for Indians to replace beans with meat and eggs in their diet. SubirGokarn: The Price of Protein. Deputy Governor. Reserve Bank of India Indira Gandhi Institute. 26 October, 2010

  21. .. and as US copper demand has fallen, Asian demand has almost doubled. And in the last three years, investment demand for silver has gone up over 400%

  22. Since 2000, the price of copper has gone up 400%.

  23. Year Loan Amount percent of cost Term 2000 $20,503 90% 53.77 months 2010 $ 30,597 95% 64.62 months Source: Federal Reserve Statistical release, Consumer Credit. Historical data series

  24. Extreme volatility in pricing Hedonic Adjustment

  25. Oil Falls 73% In 7 months! Changing currency exchange rates… Margin… Supply and demand… Tariffs and trade barriers… Politics…

  26. Paul Schwartzmeyer Walnut Street Securities, Inc. paulschwartzmeyer.com 585 757 2347 Extension 1 • The statements and opinions in this slide show are those of Paul Schwartzmeyer and do not in any way reflect the views of Walnut Street Securities, Inc. (WSS) The material is for informational use only and should not be viewed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security from or through WSS or it's affiliates. WSS makes no representation or warranty relating to the facts presented or that all material facts necessary to make an investment decision are presented.

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