Advancing maps of ignorance on the distribution of biodiversity

1. Microsoft Research Ltd. Cambridge, 16-17/2012 Visualising the future of our planet – Can we do better than heat maps? Advancing maps of ignorance on the distribution of biodiversity Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (CSIC), Spain http://jhortal.com/; jhortal@mncn.csic.es / jqhortal@gmail.com Joaquín Hortal

2. Summary Biodiversity information Quality (and quantity) of data: Wallacean Shortfall Mapping unknown species distributions Mapping ignorance

3. biodiversity and biogeography Imagine a magnificent and omniscient GIS for all the Earth’s living species, with the capacity to display any level of the Linnaean hierarchy on any spatial scale, for any season of the year. Colwell & CoddingtonPhil Trans Roy Soc B 1994

4. gathering biodiversity information digitize available distributional information: • Natural History collections • Institutional (Museums, Herbaria) • Private collections

5. gathering biodiversity information digitize available distributional information: • Natural History collections • Institutional (Museum, Herbaria) • Private collections • Literature

6. gathering biodiversity information digitize available distributional information: • Natural History collections • Institutional (Museums, Herbaria) • Private collections • Literature • ad hoc surveys

7. biodiversity databases integrate all information on the distribution of biodiversity Map of Life http://www.gbif.org/ ; http://www.mappinglife.org/ ; http://splink.cria.org.br/

8. Wallacean shortfall Adequate distribution data is lacking for many of the known species and higher taxa(Lomolino 2004) Whittaker et al. DivDistr 2005; Hortal et al. ConservBiol 2007

9. Wallacean shortfall Adequate distribution data is lacking for many of the known species and higher taxa(Lomolino 2004) Tenerife seed plants 1,131 species 1,084,971 records 960 records/species 128 records/grid cell Whittaker et al. DivDistr 2005; Hortal et al. ConservBiol 2007

10. Records Observed Richness Wallacean shortfall Adequate distribution data is lacking for many of the known species and higher taxa(Lomolino 2004) Tenerife seed plants Whittaker et al. DivDistr 2005; Hortal et al. ConservBiol 2007

11. taxonomic error Lozier et al J Biogeogr2009

12. taxonomic error Lozier et al J Biogeogr2009

13. taxonomic bias Baselga et al BiodivConserv 2007

14. spatial bias recorder’s home range hotspots Dennis & Thomas J InsectConserv 2000

15. spatial bias accessibility: ‘roadside bias’ Kadmon et al EcolAppl 2003; Hurlbert & JetzPNAS 2007

16. spatial bias bias differs between groups butterflies scarabdungbeetles Hortal et al BiodConserv 2001; Hortal et al Ecography 2004

17. temporal bias Onthophagusfracticornis Lobo et al. DivDistr 2007

18. quality of distributional data Historical survey process has been incomplete and biased: • Taxonomic bias • Temporal bias • Spatial bias Pineda & Lobo J Anim Ecol 2009

19. quality of distributional data Historical survey process has been incomplete and biased: • Taxonomic bias • Temporal bias • Spatial bias Current biodiversity picture depends on the survey process Pineda & Lobo J Anim Ecol 2009

20. quality of distributional data Historical survey process has been incomplete and biased: • Taxonomic bias • Temporal bias • Spatial bias Current biodiversity picture depends on the survey process Current knowledge on species distribution patterns may depend on survey unevenness rather than on their actual distributions Pineda & Lobo J Anim Ecol 2009

21. mapping species distributions expertopinion predictivemodels fill in the gaps Coprishispanus Carabusgranulatus Hortal J Biogeogr2008; Penev et al The genus Carabusin Europe2007; Chefaoui et al BiolConserv 2005

22. inconsistencies with atlas data neitherthespecies are presenteverywherewithintheirrangemaps, noralltheirknownoccurrences are withintheserangemaps Hurlbert & White EcolLett2005

23. inconsistencies with atlas data thesemismatchesare scaledependent Hurlbert & JetzPNAS 2007

24. probability of presence environmental gradient land classes limited knowledge on the predictors the actual responses of thespeciestotheenvironment are unknown

25. data incompleteness 23 First recorded species All species thedescriptions of theenvironmental responses of mostspecies are incompleteand biased Total Hortal et al Oikos 2008

26. uncertainty in predictions expert-drawn predictive models observed plots hybrid approach differenttechniquespredictdifferentdistributionpatterns fine whorlsnail Vertigomouninsiana GLM GAM NNET southerndamselfly Coenagrionmercuriale coarse Chefaoui et al AnimBiodivConserv 2011

27. uncertainty in future projections Araújo & RahbekScience 2006; Lawler et al Global Change Biol 2006

28. other determinants of the distribution historicaleffects Spanishmoonmoth Graellsiaisabelae e.g., Lobo et al. Div Distr 2006 Chefaoui & Lobo J WildlMan 20º7

29. dealing with uncertainty? ensembleforecasting Araújo & New Tree 2006

30. maps of ignorance a region is an “area of ignorance” if the total library resources of the outside world do not cover it (Boggs 1949) Boggs Proc Am Phil Soc 1949

31. maps of ignorance a region is an “area of ignorance” if the total library resources of the outside world do not cover it (Boggs 1949) Boggs Proc Am Phil Soc 1949

32. accuracy of knowledge Kp = f ( [K0·C] , Lt , Ls ) Kp = accuracy of the knowledge about a given taxon or community at area p K0 = knowledge about such taxon or community at each area in the moment of the survey C = degree of completeness of the survey Lt = loss of knowledge across time Ls = loss of knowledge across space Hortal, Ladle et al in prep.

33. quality of initial knowledge • Taxonomic accuracy • Detectability (crypsis, phenology) • Adequacy of sampling method and dates • Interactions • Size of focalunit • Habitat heterogeneity • Samplingeffortand success Hortal, Ladle et al in prep.

34. Magersfontein battlefield, South Africa temporal loss of knowledge 1899 • Temporal decay of similarity: • - Changes in taxonomy • - Turnover of species (mobility, phenotypic traits) • - Area of unit (small  higher turnover) • Range shifts (climate change) • Local extinctions (land use changes, biological invasions) 2005 Magersfonteinbattlefield, South Africa (fromMoustakas et al Front Biogeogr 2010) Hortal, Ladle et al in prep.

35. Magersfontein battlefield, South Africa • Species: metacommunity structure / habitat specificity (niche width) / changes in climatic scenopoetic conditions spatial loss of knowledge • Distance decay of similarity: • Taxon specific • Biogeographical changes • Environmental gradients • Metacommunity structure • Habitat specificity (niche width) (from Green et al Nature 2004) Hortal, Ladle et al in prep.

36. looking forward • 1. developtoolstomapignorance • - howtomeasuretaxonomicuncertainty • - howtoassessuncertainty in observations • howtomapthedegree of reliability of species • distributionmodels in eachpoint of space • howto determine whendistributionisbeingextrapolated • how… • 2. attachmaps of ignorance as metadataforany • distributionalmap • suggestions are welcome!

37. looking forward • 1. developtoolstomapignorance • - howtomeasuretaxonomicuncertainty • - howtoassessuncertainty in observations • howtomapthedegree of reliability of species • distributionmodels in eachpoint of space • howto determine whendistributionisbeingextrapolated • how… • 2. attachmapsof ignorance as metadataforany • distributionalmap • suggestions are welcome!

38. Jorge M. Lobo Richard J. Ladle DuccioRocchini GeizianeTessarolo and many others... gracias thank you Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (CSIC), Spain http://jhortal.com/ ; jhortal@mncn.csic.es , jqhortal@gmail.com Joaquín Hortal