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The WSA Program: Pathways from Application to College

The WSA Program: Pathways from Application to College. Charles Hirschman and Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej University of Washington UW-Beyond High School Project Workshop October 19, 2007. Next Steps in WSA Evaluation. Extend beyond Tacoma Disaggregate WSA effect

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The WSA Program: Pathways from Application to College

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  1. The WSA Program: Pathways from Application to College Charles Hirschman and Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej University of Washington UW-Beyond High School Project Workshop October 19, 2007

  2. Next Steps in WSA Evaluation • Extend beyond Tacoma • Disaggregate WSA effect • Shift in opportunity structure, but may interact with individual characteristics • Program Mechanics • Application– need to define eligibility • Selection of WSA Scholars • Continuation to College • Especially to 4 year college

  3. Potential Limitations of BHS Data • Only 5 of 16 WSA high schools in BHS • Non WSA high schools allow comparison • Eligibility (low income) not measured • Survey Non response • 70-80% of seniors in baseline survey • 90% of interviewed seniors in one year follow up survey

  4. Supplementary Data Sources • OSPI data on school characteristics • Useful to measure selectivity of WSA program and BHS sample of schools • Administrative Data from one district • Low income measure: proxy for eligibility • Potential to estimate low income in BHS data • College Success Foundation: • Administrative records of Applicants, WSA Scholars, and College Attendance • Can be used to evaluate BHS estimates of transition rates

  5. Advantages/Disadvantages of Each Data Set • Administrative Data: • Essentially complete; Proxy for eligibility • Lacks independent variables • UWBHS • Not all students responded to survey • No income data, but can be estimated • WSA and non WSA schools • Loads of independent variables

  6. Selectivity of WSA Schoolsand the BHS Sample of WSA Schools Does the BHS sample fairly represent all schools and WSA schools, in particular?

  7. Percent low-income students in all Washington state high schools, BHS public schools (9), WSA public high schools (16), and BHS WSA schools (5). OSPI: 2004-05 N=16 N=276 N=9 N=5

  8. Percent passing 10th Grade Math WASL in Washington state high schools, BHS public schools (9), WSA public high schools (16), and BHS WSA schools (5). OSPI: 2004-05 N=276 N=9 N=16 N=5

  9. Next Steps • Measure System Dynamics • Eligibility, Application, Selection, College Attendance • Estimation: Low income eligibility • Compare BHS sample with Admin Data • Are system dynamics comparable • Can we estimate low income students: proxy for eligibility

  10. Measuring WSA Eligibility • Lowest 1/3 of Washington St. families • Approx $49,000 for family of 4 • Admin variable identifies students below 185% of poverty level • Majority of students in WSA schools • 80-90% of WSA applicants • Poverty prediction equation using BHS measures of home ownership, parental SES, and other factors • Correctly predicts ¾ of low income students • Allows research to extend beyond district 1

  11. Estimation of WSA Eligibility and Program Transition Rates Among High School Seniors in 3 WSA High Schools, 2002-05* All High School Students Eligibility ~ 63% Low Income Students Application Rate ~ 38% Applicants Selection Rate ~ 65% WSA Scholars Attending Any College ~ 92% Enrolled in Any College Attending a 4 yr College ~ 73% Enrolled in a 4 yr College *Based on district administrative data and CSF records

  12. Comparison of Application, Selection & College Attendance Rates Between Administrative and BHS Survey Data for 3 WSA High Schools: 2002-05

  13. Findings: • UW-BHS schools representative sample • Low income is a proxy for eligibility • Prediction of low income status (from BHS data) is reasonably accurate • Models using fitted income values similar to those with actual income data • UW-BHS data provide good estimates of WSA application and selection rates

  14. Predicting WSA Application, Selection and College Attendance? • Demographic variables: • Gender, Race/Ethnicity, Immigrant Generation • Family SES & Structure • Home Ownership, Parental Education, Intact Family • Parenting and Encouragement • Good Behavior, Locus of Control, Self Esteem, GPA

  15. APPLICATION ENCOURAGEMENT Females (via GPA) Asians (Vietnamese) Non-intact family Parents know friends Hrs of Homework High self efficacy High GPA SELECTION HIGH SELF EFFICACY AND GPA Non-intact family Parental education Parents know friends Hrs of Homework Predicting Application and Selection

  16. Any College Encouragement & GPA Vietnamese (via encouragement) 1st Gen (via encouragement & GPA) Non Intact family Parental Educ & Comm. (via GPA) 4 Year College Encouragement & GPA African Amer., East Asian 1st and 2nd Gen(via encouragement & GPA) Non Intact family Parental Educ (via GPA) Predicting Attending College

  17. Predictors among low income students • Demographic and SES largely unimportant, except non-intact families • Encouragement/High expectations • Homework and GPA • Self Efficacy/ Locus of Control

  18. Further Evaluation of WSA Program • Compare low income students in non-WSA schools with WSA schools • Is gap in college attendance between low and high income students less in WSA schools? • Are rejected applicants more likely to attend college than non applicants?

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