Climate Change and Energy, Industry ( incl. mining / quarrying, manufacturing)

1. Climate Change and Energy, Industry( incl. mining / quarrying, manufacturing) James Renwick NIWA j.renwick@niwa.co.nz

2. A huge canvas… • Physical climate change • Warming, precipitation changes, winds • Natural interannual-decadal variability • May accelerate or retard long-term trends • Effects in New Zealand on • Temperature, rainfall, winds, snow storage, seasonality • Energy effects • Storage and generation capacity • Demand: heating, cooling, irrigation, industry • Transmission • RISK • Political/social pressures • Resource scarcity – peak oil? • Migration • Technological change… ????

3. Planning for climate change Planning now for human-induced climate change becomes more important towards the right • Longevity of infrastructure • vulnerability • Planning needed now • Diversification • Risk management • Barriers • Large investment, inertia • Social acceptance (R. Jones CSIRO, from “Climate Change in S Australia”, 2002)

4. Climate Variability & Change • Variability • Dominates hydro storage, modulates demand • Large effects on seasonal & annual precipitation • Extended periods of low storage • Change • More reliable precipitation & wind resources • Changed seasonality of flows & snow pack • Changed demand patterns, & seasonality of demand • Energy efficiency, DG, insulation etc • Security/risk profile changes dynamically • Knowledge of the recent past a poor guide to the future?

5. El Niño etc Interannual IPO Interdecadal Variability: River flows Clutha River at Balclutha, 1947-2007 (1 Oct – 30 Sept) (data courtesy Contact Energy Ltd) • Changes in mean levels • Impacts on national hydro storage • Recent years a poor guide to future risks

6. Low carbon future • New Zealand carbon-neutral • 100% renewable electricity • Strongly reduced GHG emissions from energy sector • Large increase in wind generation • Tidal, wave? • Distributed generation • Wind and solar • Electric vehicle technology • Political & economic issues • Focus on local production • Reduced international trade, travel • A relatively stable world?

7. High carbon future • “Exploitation” mentality – business as usual • In short, the world is not on course to achieve a sustainable energy future (IPCC AR4 WGIII) • Strong mining sector, export of coal • Increased local thermal production • Continued high GHG emissions from energy sector • Development of renewables • More wind, further hydro? • Significant thermal backup • Political & economic issues • Global trade & exporting • Global changes, loss of production • Economic instability? • Migration pressures, conflict, instability

8. Low carbon future • 0.7°C warming in 50yr, 1.0°C in 100yr • Snowline rises 100-150m?

9. Low carbon future • 10% more alpine precipitation in 50yr • Analogous to IPO phase change • 15+% in 100yr • 5% windier in winter/spring?

10. Changes in max snow accumulation • Percentage difference for 2040s and 2090s, for “mid-carbon” future • 20% reduction by 2090s, for low-carbon future

11. Low carbon future • Some reduction of seasonality of flows • Snow pack reduced 10-20%? • Natural variability (IPO, ENSO) dominates through mid-century • Moderate reduction in winter demand • Significant decrease in cold nights • Moderate increase in summer demand • More cooling, irrigation demand • Need for careful management of hydro capacity • 50% increase in peak flood volumes by 2090? • Large increase in wind, plus DG/solar/etc

12. High carbon future • 0.9°C warming in 50yr, 2.5°C in 100yr • Snowline rises 150-350m? • 30-50% reduction in max snowpack by 2090?

13. High carbon future • 10% more alpine precipitation in 50yr • Analogous to IPO phase change • 30% in 100yr – very significant • 10% windier in winter/spring?

14. High carbon future • Significant reduction of seasonality of flows • Snow pack reduced 30-50%? • Significant reduction in winter demand • No frosts in population centres by 2090’s • Significant increase in summer demand • Much more cooling, irrigation demand • Managing hydro capacity a serious issue • Peak flood volumes double through the century • Flood return intervals more than halve? • Large increase in wind (?), some DG/solar/etc • Large increase in thermal generation • Transmission – heat  sagging, line losses • Windiness  damage to lines/infrastructure?

15. Summary (1) • Warming • Changing demand patterns, effects on transmission • Rainfall changes • Wetter in alpine regions • Heavier rain, when it falls – water management • Water stress in eastern regions, competition for resource • Stronger westerly winds, especially in winter • Better for wind generation, risk of more wind-related damage • Snow storage changes • Rising snowline: less at lower levels, more on the tops? • Reduced seasonal cycle of accumulation & melt • Demand • Less winter heating, more summer cooling • Irrigation demand in eastern regions

16. Summary (2) • Climate variability will continue • Decadal variability a key for planning • Climate change will increase in importance • Rate dependent on emissions scenario • Need to understand changing risks • System modelling a key (climate+energy) • Political, social, technological changes • Commitment to carbon neutrality • Public pressure • New technology (renewables, cleaner thermal, …) • International trade, politics

18. Aside: Downscaling Climate Change • Dynamical downscaling • Regional detail from a high-res physical model • More detail, and better for extremes • Combining with enhanced statistical modelling