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When Moral Hazard becomes Mortal Hazard Edward P. Richards Professor of Law LSU Law Center richards@lsu.edu. What is Moral Hazard?. Economics origin Distortion of market signals Behind US Savings and Loan crash Now behind the sub-prime mortgage crunch.
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When Moral Hazard becomes Mortal Hazard Edward P. Richards Professor of Law LSU Law Center richards@lsu.edu
What is Moral Hazard? • Economics origin • Distortion of market signals • Behind US Savings and Loan crash • Now behind the sub-prime mortgage crunch
Moral Hazard in Public Policy for Disaster Management • Insulation of individuals and businesses from risk signals such as the insurance market • Promulgation of comprehensive but completely unworkable emergency preparedness plans • Refusal to discuss predictable but politically unacceptable failure scenarios
When does Moral Hazard become Mortal Hazard? • When the politically unacceptable scenario occurs • Preparations do not match the event's needs • No amount of preparation would sufficiently mitigate the consequences • When the long term consequences come into play • No US disaster planning makes provisions for long term business dislocation and refugee relocation
Hurricanes • Geographically limited • Cyclonic • Driven by heat • Latent heat of fusion as rain is produced • Produce a unique storm surge • Up to 30 feet above high tide level • Huge wave action
Was Katrina an Unprecedented Event? • Outliners • New York City Earthquake • The big one on the west coast • Smallpox • "Routine Disasters" • Horrible things that happen less frequently than the historical attention span
Gulf and Atlantic Coast Hurricanes • Tens of thousands of lives lost • Whole communities swept from the map • A major city reduced to a tourist backwater • A much bigger storm than Katrina - Camille - hit the same place as Katrina in 1969 • New Orleans has been hit and flooded regularly for 300 years • Last storms - 1947 and 1965 • Was only grazed by Katrina
Katrina in New Orleans • New Orleans was spared the storm surge and a direct hit, as well as the high rainfall • It was flooded because of it's unique geography • This geography is the story of New Orleans
What Happened in New Orleans? • Some levees failed because of water pressure undermining their base • Some levees were overtopped • Once overtopped, levees fail unless special precautions are taken • Levee failure allows the water in the city to rise to sea level • The water must be pumped out
Can Levees Protect New Orleans? • The primary strategy for protecting New Orleans has been levees • Always fraught with political issues • 1967 plan and the current levees • What would it really take? • Height and environmental damage • What about armoring the levees like the Dutch?
Restoration of the Wetlands • One theory to protect New Orleans is to restore the wet lands • Changes in river sediment • Rechannel the river • Would there be enough sediment? • Would this be politically possible?
Why are the Wetlands Disappearing? • Subsidence • Subduction • Sedimentary consolidation • What does subsidence mean to the gulf coast? • What does subsidence mean for levees? • Navigation Canal theory • Does not address land sinking away from the canals
The Timeframe Issue • All the solutions, whether workable or not, take decades, and there is little protection until they are almost complete • What does that means for the inhabitants in the unprotected interval?
The Insurance Issue • Federal Flood Insurance • 250,000 cap • heavily subsidized • Private insurance • No flood/water damage • Historically no risk premium • Do we subsidize it? • Who pays in a state based system? • What are the implications for moral hazard?
Why the Evacuation Failed for Katrina • No one would admit that the city could flood • Destroy property values • Create political firestorm for a false alarm • Federal plan was fine • No one can ever say the plan is unworkable • Neither the feds nor the states want to really face the hard problems
Issues with Evacuations • Timing • Takes at least 2 days if you provide transportation and help • Uncertainty of Storm Path assures a lot of false alarms • Costs • Infrastructure • Personal and business disruption • Destroys convention business for 4 months
Where are We Two Years Later? • Everyone can rebuild where they want • No real requirements on elevation • Social justice advocates want the poor relocated back into the city • No plan for future protection • Hostage theory • Is this the right approach?
Legal Issues • Imminent Domain Constitutional Amendments • May make any systematic rebuilding impossible because the things like the 30 right of redemption • All policy decisions paralyzed by the Katrina-related litigation • Huge budget surpluses mask the loss of the underlying business infrastructure • Terrible legal infrastructure in NO undermines all property resolutions