IX th European Interparliamentary Space Conference Rome – 9 October 2007

1. IXth European Interparliamentary Space ConferenceRome – 9 October 2007 IXth European Interparliamentary Space Conference Third Session. New aspects of competition in a global market for space activities Antonio FABRIZIDirector of LaunchersEuropean Space Agency

2. Contents • Notions of competition and access to space in a global context • Guaranteed access to space for Europe • Cooperation and competition worldwide • Institutional demand for launch services • Development prospects and drivers

3. Competition and access to space in a global context Access to space as a highly strategic sector • Supporting public industrial policy objectives • Foundation of national security, civil and commercial space efforts • Key element in safeguarding and fostering domestic industrial capabilities High degree of freedom of action retained by public sector • Absence of stringent international restrictions to public procurement (e.g. no WTO obligations on Government Procurement and no GATS commitments in general) • Support through law, policies and practices Measures fostering the domestic sectors and promoting a robust industrial and technology base • Financial support to research and technology • Launchers and launch infrastructure development programmes • Support to launcher manufacturing and operations • Captive procurement to domestic sources • Encouraging policy and legislation Developing, safeguarding and operating launch assets enables domestic activities in space.

4. European guaranteed access to space Unrestricted utilisation of space is a strategic factor for Europe, for achieving its goals of growth and security and for the well being of its citizens. Autonomy through own launch capability • Guaranteeing Europe’s role as major space-faring actor • Pre-requisite of a consolidated European Space Policy • Level of autonomy to be measured against the European content in the key elements guaranteeing access to space for Europe • Operational launch systems • European industrial capabilities for research & technology, development & exploitation • Operational launch base • Launch service provider Supply from internal sources needs to be secured, size and structure of the launcher market cannot be left to market forces alone. • Balance required between strategic and pure competition considerations • Appropriate industrial policy and public authorities’ close attention Guaranteed independent access to space for Europe remains an essential goal to be safeguarded at an affordable cost, in a balanced way between public and private sectors.

5. Cooperation and competition worldwide Worldwide increase in development activities US: considerable changes following Space Shuttle withdrawal in 2010 and advent of new manufacturers Russia: increasing prices and decline of ICBM stock China / Russia / Japan: new launch vehicle families Industrial consolidation processes in Russia and China Asian players preparing entry to commercial market by strengthening ties with the US or manufacturing domestic satellite platforms to overcome US export restrictions Continuous, significant government support for development of launcher systems and related technologies Major changes expected around 2010-2015 Demand for launch services • Launch services overcapacity due to satellite market decline since 2001 led to withdrawal of some launch service providers from commercial operations. Slight recovery since 2003. • GTO heavy performance assured by 3 vehicles: Ariane, Proton, Sea Launch • Recent launch failures have led to reduced availability of Sea Launch / Proton • Arianespace in uncontested leading position in the commercial market Present temporary under-capacity underlines the highly volatile nature of the launch service market

6. Institutional demand for launch services Outside Europe • Stable launch rates guaranteed independently of the commercial demand • Captivity of national institutional payloads and coherent utilisation policy • Prices adjusting to unfavourable commercial situation In Europe • Lack of a European launch service procurement policy • Paradox = no overall optimisation of the European access to space • Limited size of the institutional market • Affordability and survival relying on success in the commercial market • Vulnerability to commercial market variations • Higher sensitivity vis-à-vis exchange rate fluctuations • Launch service procurement policy for ESA missions (2005) • European Space Policy (EU/ESA) calling for Europe to “look first to its own launcher resources when defining and executing European programmes, based on cost-efficiency, reliability and mission suitability”. Europe should make best use of public resources by consistently optimising the utilisation of its launch capabilities which, in turn, continuously contribute to higher reliability and affordability in guaranteeing its access to space.

7. Development prospects and drivers Comprehensive family of launch systems • Ariane 5 • Vega (qualification flight: second half of 2008) • Soyuz at the CSG (exploitation starting early 2009) European Space Policy • Critical mass of launcher activities as pre-condition for the viability of the sector • Continued development and coordination by ESA of European technological capabilities for long-term competitiveness 2008 ESA Council meeting at ministerial level decisions Time line • Short and medium term (until 2014) • Ensure safe exploitation of Ariane 5, Vega and Soyuz from Europe’s Spaceport • Continue to prepare the future through the Future Launchers Preparatory Programme • Long term (after 2014) • Decisions required to ensure a guaranteed independent access to space Main drivers • Consolidate existing family of launchers, by completing current developments and accompanying exploitation • Prepare or start new developments, considering institutional needs and the need to increase European independence • Acquire new technologies and prepare for the future

8. For the European launcher sector to take full benefit of the implementation of the European launcher sector drivers, it is of crucial importance that European Parliaments, as both national representative bodies and depositaries of the exercise of legislative power, play a role in encouraging the enactment of supportive legislation to launch services in Europe, also at European level. In particular, a public procurement policy for institutional European launch services would promote the utilisation of European launch capabilities in turn continuously contributing to optimising the use of public resources by increasing the reliability and affordability of Europe’s guaranteed access to space.