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Modeling Developing Country Emissions

This seminar presentation from Geoffrey J. Blanford, held at the EPRI Global Climate Change Seminar in May 2008, discusses the projected trends in CO2 emissions from developing countries, highlighting that Non-Annex B emissions will surpass those of Annex B nations before 2010. Emphasizing China's critical position, the presentation reviews the significant growth in energy use and emissions, exploring the implications for global stabilization goals. Key scenarios related to energy intensity, carbon intensity, and GDP are analyzed, raising concerns over the feasibility of aggressive stabilization targets without effective engagement from developing nations like China.

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Modeling Developing Country Emissions

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  1. Modeling Developing Country Emissions Geoffrey J. Blanford, EPRI Global Climate Change Seminar May 21, 2008 Washington, DC

  2. Global CO2 Emissions: Changing of the Guard 2010 Projection

  3. Non-Annex B Emissions will surpass Annex B before 2010

  4. Reading the Data on Developing Countries • Rapid growth in energy use and emissions • China is the major player, both in rate and scale: • 618 GW installed capacity in 2006 • 106 GW newly installed source: J. Kejun (2007) • Have modeling scenarios caught up? • What are the implications for global stabilization goals?

  5. Energy-related CO2 emissions in China

  6. Energy-related CO2 emissions in China

  7. Energy-related CO2 emissions in China

  8. Energy-related CO2 emissions in China

  9. Energy-related CO2 emissions in China

  10. Modeling the Kaya Identity Energy use per capita Population × per capita income = GDP × energy intensity = Primary Energy × carbon intensity = Emissions

  11. The Kaya Identity in China source: G. Marland (2008) Per Capita Income Emissions Population Carbon Intensity of Energy Energy Intensity of GDP Carbon Intensity of GDP

  12. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China 2010– 2030: 7.5% 2000 – 2010: 9.6%

  13. Total Primary Energy in China

  14. Comparison to Asian Experience • China’s per capita income in 2003: $5,000 (year 2000 $US PPP) • 7 Asian countries are wealthier than China:

  15. Per Capita Income Projection for China

  16. Energy Intensity Projections for China

  17. Per Capita Energy Use Projections for China

  18. Per Capita Energy Use Projections for China

  19. Global CO2 Emissions

  20. Global CO2 Emissions

  21. Is 450 (CO2 only) Feasible?

  22. Is 450 (CO2 only) Feasible? History New MERGE Baseline

  23. Is 550 (CO2 only) Feasible? History New MERGE Baseline

  24. Conclusions • There is considerable uncertainty about future growth… • … but, the scenario shown here is plausible, consistent with current observations and historical experience • If developing countries continue to grow along this baseline path, aggressive stabilization targets quickly become impossible to meet (without overshoot) • Annex B countries must find a way to engage China

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