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Lea Levi

Hydroclimatic change driven by land- water use developments in transboundary Sava River Catchment and across regions. Lea Levi. Hydrologidagarna, March 2014. OBJECTIVES. investigate the past-to-present hydroclimatic changes observed within the SRC

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Lea Levi

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  1. Hydroclimaticchange driven by land-waterusedevelopments in transboundary Sava River Catchment and across regions Lea Levi Hydrologidagarna, March 2014

  2. OBJECTIVES • investigate the past-to-present hydroclimatic changes observed within the SRC • relate the observed hydro-climatic changes in the landscape to various possible change drivers, including atmospheric climate change and historic land/water-use developments in the region • compare and assess the possible generality of obtained SRC results for such relations in view of similar results in climatically different parts of the world.

  3. Sava River Catchment (SRC) 92,158 km² SRC

  4. AVAILABLE INFORMATION • Temperature: CRU TS 2.1 data (Mitchell and Jones, 2005) • Precipitation: CRU TS 2.1 data (Mitchell and Jones, 2005) • Runoff: Institute for the development of the water resources Jaroslav Černi, Meteorological and Hydrological Institute of Croatia • Landuse: ISLSCP II Historical Land Cover and Land Use, 1700-1990 • Hydropower: different sources

  5. The total SRC area: 92,158 km², population 8 176 000 • elevation:0-2646 m a.s.l. • 20th century averages: • Landuse: • Hydropower: 19 Large dams, 22 hydropowerplants (annual production of 8*106 MWh) • Irrigation: 0.6 % of the total water use in the catchment used for irrigation; 0.28 % of the SRC area systematically irrigated

  6. METHODS Climate models ΔS≈0,annual change in water storage over the catchment Budyko, (1974.) Turc, (1954.) Langbein, (1949.)

  7. Comparison of available R data with a corresponding climate-related change in R (ΔRclim) • R change being driven only by the AET change estimated by the climate-related AETTclim and AETBclim estimates. Arora et. al., (2002) β≥0 is a sensitivity factor related to PET/P. For PET/P<1, which applies for all the Sava catchments, β≈ PET/P.

  8. SRC

  9. a) b) c) d) Zagreb

  10. Slavonski Brod

  11. Kozluk

  12. SRC Zagreb Slavonski Brod Kozluk

  13. SRC Zagreb Slavonski Brod Kozluk

  14. SRC SRC

  15. SRC

  16. CONCLUSIONS • significant and temporally sustained hydroclimatic shifts in AETwb/P to higher levels and CV(R) to lower levels simultaneous with higher hydropower production • observed atmospheric climate changes in T and P cannot explain these data-given hydroclimatic changes in the landscape • no sustained observed landuse changes

  17. Hydropower productiondevelopment - a proxyforvariouspossiblerelatedand/orconcurrentchanges in land-useandwater-use • consistentwithprevious such results (Destouni et al., (2013)) for hydropower catchments in Swedenandbyextrapolation on averagefor such catchments in different partsoftheworld. • a possibilityforcross-regional generalizationofhydroclimaticchangeeffectsrelatedto land-water-use

  18. The SRC –transboundary, recently undergone political and social instability- less accessible environmental data. • a catchment-wise investigation approach • utilizing the fundamental water balance physics of hydrological catchments • comparing change results and implications across catchments of different scales and for different parts of the world.

  19. Thankyou!

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