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The European Challenge mobilise labour supply AND increase productivity growth

US and European Economies in Comparative Perspective Berkeley 12/13 September The EU Labour Market Challenge Background Charts & Tables Karl Pichelmann. DG ECFIN. The European Challenge mobilise labour supply AND increase productivity growth. Very Unsatisfactory Performance

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The European Challenge mobilise labour supply AND increase productivity growth

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  1. US and European Economies in Comparative PerspectiveBerkeley 12/13 SeptemberThe EU Labour Market ChallengeBackground Charts & TablesKarl Pichelmann

  2. DG ECFIN The European Challengemobilise labour supply ANDincrease productivity growth • Very Unsatisfactory Performance • Demographic Change • Globalisation • Will Systems Competition Help ?

  3. DG ECFIN EU GDP per capita in PPS (US=100)

  4. DG ECFIN EU GDP per capita in PPS (US=100)

  5. DG ECFIN Total Employment Rates

  6. DG ECFIN Employment Rates: Females

  7. DG ECFIN Employment Rates: Older workers

  8. DG ECFIN Long-term Unemployment Rate

  9. DG ECFIN Trend Growth Labour Productivity Per Hour

  10. DG ECFIN Decomposition of Labour Productivity Trends

  11. DG ECFIN Cumulated euro area employment shock

  12. DG ECFIN Cumulated euro area productivity shock

  13. DG ECFIN A flip-side of poor productivity growth

  14. DG ECFIN Old-age dependency ratios in the EU-15

  15. DG ECFIN Projections of age related public expenditures

  16. DG ECFIN The Impact of Ageing • Ageing may reduce GDP by 20 % relative to baseline, and public expenditure on pensions as a share of GDP may increase by about 7 pp • Parametric reforms can go quite some way to offset these effects and stabilise PAYG systems • Increasing the effective retirement age is the single most potent reform option • Impact on TFP growth ?

  17. DG ECFIN Globalisation: Threat to job and wages ?

  18. DG ECFIN Export Market Shares

  19. DG ECFIN Terms of Trade for Non-Oil Goods and Services

  20. DG ECFIN Extra-EU15 Trade Balances

  21. DG ECFIN Geographical Direction of Extra-EU15 Exports

  22. DG ECFIN Extra-EU15 Trade: Skill and Factor Intensity

  23. DG ECFIN Top 6 Contributors to Non-Fuel World Export Growth

  24. DG ECFIN Top 6 Contributors to Non-Fuel World Export Growth

  25. DG ECFIN Top 6 Contributors to Non-Fuel World Export Growth

  26. DG ECFIN EU15 RCA’s for Specific Product Groupings

  27. DG ECFIN Unemployment and Trade Openess

  28. DG ECFIN Displacement Rates by Industry

  29. DG ECFIN Labour Market Prospects of Displaced Workers

  30. DG ECFIN Systems Competition of Labour Compacts • Despite quite widespread perceptions, only little evidence for “ a race to the bottom” (tax system ?) • Leader-follower behaviour in order to maintain relative positions (wage setting ?) • Regression towards the mean, “race to the top” ? • (Open Method of) Co-ordination largely ineffective • Heterogeneity of “Social Europe” likely to persist

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