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Catching the Future Before it Catches You ∞ 2009 NMC Symposium for the Future

Catching the Future Before it Catches You ∞ 2009 NMC Symposium for the Future. Catching the Future Before it Catches You. 1. Methods Extrapolation Delphi Scenarios Futures market 2. Scans Environmental scan. Apprehending the futures.

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Catching the Future Before it Catches You ∞ 2009 NMC Symposium for the Future

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  1. Catching the Future Before it Catches You ∞ 2009 NMC Symposium for the Future

  2. Catching the Future Before it Catches You 1. Methods • Extrapolation • Delphi • Scenarios • Futures market 2. Scans • Environmental scan

  3. Apprehending the futures Principles of Forecasting (2001) (http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/methodologytree.html)

  4. Extrapolation iPhone Apps Store downloads • April 2009 1.0 billion • July 2009 1.5 billion • Sept 2009 2.0 billion -works with data sources -can lead to more data-gathering, metrics

  5. Limitations • Trend lines vary • Doesn’t account for new things • The Black Swan (Taleb, 2007)

  6. Delphi • Assemble experts • Probe for opinions • Rank and distill ideas • Reiterate

  7. Example: the Horizon Report • “[A] comprehensive review and analysis of research, articles, papers, blogs, and interviews • [We] discussed existing applications and brainstormed new ones. • A key criterion was the potential relevance of the topics to teaching, learning, research, and creative expression. • Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”

  8. Limitations • Groupthink • Information compression • The Black Swan

  9. Scenarios Stories about futures • Event and response • Creativity • Roles and times • Emergent practices and patterns

  10. Limitations • Culture • Resources • The Black Swan

  11. Futures market Features Advantages Continuous Distributed feedback Affordances of play • Propositions in time • Shares to be traded

  12. Will 25 or more institutions be participating in Flickr’s Creative Commons project by March 26, 2009?

  13. When will the number of Facebook users hit 200 million?

  14. Limitations • Quantitative threshold • Physical proximity • Market metaphor • The Black Swan

  15. II. Scanning • Environmental scanning • Pattern recognition

  16. Crowdsourcing Different levels • Social network • Crowd computing • Iterated resource feeds

  17. Crowdsourcing • Your turn: where do you feed your head? People, blogs, print, whatever you like. head to the public chat.

  18. Citations • iCub, http://infocult.typepad.com/infocult/2009/09/robot-children-toddle-out-of-the-uncanny-valley.html • Principles of Forecasting chart, http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/methodologytree.html • accessCeramics, Lewis and Clark, http://accessceramics.org/ • NassimTaleb, http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ • Black Swans: Field Museum Library, http://www.flickr.com/photos/field_museum_library/3405475664/; gnuckxcc0, http://www.flickr.com/photos/34409164@N06/3209135920/ • Great California Shakeout, http://www.shakeout.org/media/index.html

  19. More citations • NITLE Prediction Markets, http://markets.nitle.org/ • Cat and kitten, http://www.flickr.com/photos/bryanalexander • Bing’s Twitter search, http://www.bing.com/twitter • EpisilonAurigaecrowdsourcing, http://mysite.du.edu/~rstencel/epsaurnews.htm • Horizon Report 2010 wiki, http://horizon.wiki.nmc.org/ • “Apprehendingthe Future: Emerging Technologies, from Science Fiction to Campus Reality”, EDUCAUSE Review, vol. 44, no. 3 (May/June 2009): 12–29. http://www.educause.edu/EDUCAUSE+Review/EDUCAUSEReviewMagazineVolume44/ApprehendingtheFutureEmergingT/171774. More sources there.

  20. The ultimate links NITLE http://nitle.org Liberal Education Today http://blogs.nitle.org/let NITLE prediction markets game http://markets.nitle.org/ Bryan on Twitter http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander

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