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Power Supply Plan Update System Planning June 3, 2008

Power Supply Plan Update System Planning June 3, 2008. PSP Key Input Drivers. Risk for Cost Decrease Increased Hydro Generation Earlier EPU timing Potential distressed asset acquisitions vs. new build Bellefonte 1&2 option vs. new AP 1000 Lower loads

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Power Supply Plan Update System Planning June 3, 2008

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  1. Power Supply Plan Update System Planning June 3, 2008 5-16-2008

  2. PSP Key Input Drivers

  3. Risk for Cost Decrease Increased Hydro Generation Earlier EPU timing Potential distressed asset acquisitions vs. new build Bellefonte 1&2 option vs. new AP 1000 Lower loads Fleet performs well – no need for any retirements Risk for Cost Increase DSM program impacts are over estimated Higher capital cost escalation Clean Air legislation causes additional capital expenditures and/or unit shut downs PPA / Market availability tightens Higher loads Fleet does not perform well – need for more than 1 retirement Expansion Plan Risks (+ / - )

  4. Peak & Energy Forecast with & without DSM Peak, with DSM: 1.1% Energy, with DSM: 0.8% Average Annual Growth Rate Jun07 May08 5 Yr (2008-2013): 1.6% 1.1% 20 Yr (2008-2028): 1.9% 1.6% Average Annual Growth Rate Jun07 May08 5 Yr (2008-2013): 0.5% 0.8% 20 Yr (2008-2028): 1.3% 1.1% Energy, w/o DSM: 1.3% Peak, w/o DSM: 2.1% Average Annual Growth Rate Jun07 May08 5 Yr (2008-2013): 1.9% 2.1% 20 Yr (2008-2028): 1.9% 1.9% Average Annual Growth Rate Jun07 May08 5 Yr (2008-2013): 0.6% 1.3% 20 Yr (2008-2028): 1.3% 1.3% 5-16-2008

  5. SERC RegionSummer Peak DemandHistorical Actual vs. 2008 Forecast

  6. SERC RegionNet Energy2007 Actual & 2008 Forecast

  7. Capacity Expansion Plan – May08 vs Jun07 Capacity Additions – 2008 May Plan • Green bars represent Nuclear units, beginning with Enhance Power Upgrades at BFN in 2010, WBN2 in 2013, BLN3-4 in 2018-19, BLN5-6 in 2025-26, adding 6113 MWs by 2026. • Brown bars representing Coal plants, begin in 2022, and add 2400 MWs by 2026. • Above 2400 MW of coal includes a SC-PC replacement coal plant for JOF, begins in 2022, and covers 800 MWs of the 1098 MW reduction from JOF. • Orange bars, representing intermediate gas CC units, begin in 2008, and add 4400 MWs by 2026. • Blue bars, representing gas CT units, begin in 2007; add 4600 MW by 2026. • Yellow bars, representing DSM programs, provide 2700 MWs of peak load relief by 2026, 1400 MW by 2012. • Purple bars represent market purchases, either thru long or short term PPAs. 5-16-2008

  8. New Build Capital Cost 5-16-2008

  9. Expansion Plan – 5 yr Comparison 5-16-2008

  10. Expansion Plan – 19 yr Comparison 5-16-2008

  11. Volume Mix and Price change 5-16-2008

  12. New Generation FY2009 - 2013 5-16-2008

  13. New Generation FY2009 - 2013 5-16-2008

  14. New Generation FY2009 - 2013 5-16-2008

  15. New Generation FY2009 - 2013 5-16-2008

  16. New Generation FY2009 - 2013 5-16-2008

  17. New Generation FY2009 - 2013 5-16-2008

  18. New Generation FY2009 - 2013 MWs MWs 5-16-2008

  19. BACKUP System Planning June 3, 2008 5-16-2008

  20. May08 Expansion Plan - MW 5-16-2008

  21. May 08 Expansion Plan - $’s 5-16-2008

  22. June07 Expansion Plan - MW 5-16-2008

  23. June 07 Expansion Plan - $’s 5-16-2008

  24. New Build Capital Cost 5-16-2008

  25. Capacity Expansion –May 08 General Capacity Additions • Green bars represent Nuclear units, beginning with Enhance Power Upgrades at BFN in 2010, WBN2 in 2013, BLN3-4 in 2018-19, BLN5-6 in 2025-26, adding 6113 MWs by 2026. • Brown bars representing Coal plants, begin in 2022, and add 2400 MWs by 2026. • Above 2400 MW of coal includes a SC-PC replacement coal plant for JOF, begins in 2022, and covers 800 MWs of the 1098 MW reduction from JOF. • Orange bars, representing intermediate gas CC units, begin in 2008, and add 4400 MWs by 2026. • Blue bars, representing gas CT units, begin in 2007; add 4600 MW by 2026. • Yellow bars, representing DSM programs, provide 2700 MWs of peak load relief by 2026, 1400 MW by 2012. • Purple bars represent market purchases, either thru long or short term PPAs. Spot Market 5-16-2008

  26. Capacity Expansion – Jun 07 General Capacity Additions • Green bars represent Nuclear units, beginning with Enhance Power Upgrades at BFN in 2009, WBN2 in 2013, BLN3 in 2018, and BLN4 in 2019, adding 3384 MWs by 2026. • Brown bars representing Coal plants, begin in 2022, and add 4000 MWs by 2026. • Above 4000 MW of coal includes a SC-PC replacement coal plant for JOF, begins in 2022, and covers 800 MWs of the 1098 MW reduction from JOF. • Orange bars, representing intermediate gas CC units, begin in 2008, and add 4100 MWs by 2026. • Blue bars, representing gas CT units, begin in 2007, and add 6300 MWs by 2026. • Yellow bars, representing DSM programs, provide 1000 MWs of peak load relief by 2026, 520 MW by 2012. • Purple bars represent market purchases, either thru long or short term PPAs. Spot Market 5-16-2008

  27. Market Reliance - May08 Plan 5-16-2008

  28. Market Reliance - Jun07 Plan 5-16-2008

  29. Eastern Valley Annual Runoff Variability 40 20 Runoff (Percent Deviation from Normal) 0 -20 2006 -40 1985 2000 1986 1941 2007 1988 2010 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 5-16-2008

  30. Increasing Costs to Build Combined Cycle Generation TVA Data Historical Data Provided by Merrill Lynch CC $817 $577 $518 CT $369 2007 High - Low 5-16-2008

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