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Going Beyond CPM

Going Beyond CPM. J. Chris White ViaSim Solutions Rockwall, TX 972-722-9255 jcwhite@viasimsolutions.com. The Problem. Even with great effort and the best intentions. Some projects are still late and over-budget. But It’s Not Our Fault. Out of our control. Within our control.

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Going Beyond CPM

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  1. Going Beyond CPM J. Chris White ViaSim Solutions Rockwall, TX 972-722-9255 jcwhite@viasimsolutions.com

  2. The Problem Even with great effort and the best intentions . . . Some projects are still late and over-budget.

  3. But It’s Not Our Fault Out of our control Within our control Litigation Within our control

  4. Just the Tip of the Iceberg… Need a tool that . . . Unrealistic starting point Provides a much better starting point Unexpected material delays And provides guidance on how to recover from the unexpected. Unexpected labor losses Etc.

  5. The Plan In the beginning was the plan. And the plan came with assumptions. And the assumptions were without form. And the plan was completely without substance. And the darkness was upon the faces of the Workers And they spoke unto their Group Heads, saying: “It is a crock of &*%# and it stinketh.” And the Group Heads went unto their Section Heads and sayeth: “It is a pail of dung, and none may abide the odor thereof.” And the Section Heads went unto their Managers and sayeth to them: “It is a container of excrement and it is very strong, such that none may abide by it.” And the Managers went unto their Director and sayeth unto him: “It contains that which aids plant growth and it is very strong.” And the Director went unto the Vice President and sayeth unto him: “It promoteth growth and it is very powerful.” And the Vice President went unto the General Manager and sayeth unto him: “This powerful new plan will actively promote the growth and efficiency of the Department.” And the General Manager looked upon the plan and saw that is was good. And the plan became policy.

  6. The Biggest RISK Is anUNREALISTIC Baseline Keep a plan that looks “good” but is known to be wrong Create a realistic plan that exposes issues upfront, but looks “bad” You are here

  7. The Real World • Construction projects are very complex. • Labor productivity issues are a reality. • There are always unexpected delays and disruptions that management reacts to. • Management corrective actions constantly change the course of the project. • Estimates are often “padded” to cover risks. • We are dependent on project planning tools.

  8. Business System/Project Complexity • Lots of trades • Lots of activities • Long duration Med Med Many High Interrelations Few Low Few Many Elements

  9. Picking the Right Tool for the Job System Dynamics Many Relations Network Models Few Few Many Spreadsheet Parts See 4-part video series on www.viasimsolutions.com for full description

  10. There are some great Project Managers out there . . . . . . using the wrong planning tools

  11. CPM-Based Tools Are Misleading • Double resources to cut duration in half. • Double people’s hours to cut duration in half. • If resource is not available for the requested time, resource sits idle. • Durations (and, hence, full project plans) can be input with no verification of assumptions. We conduct complex analyses with variables that are suspicious to begin with.

  12. Overview of Critical Path Method

  13. Major Flaws with CPM • Task duration is an input. • Productivity impacts are not considered. • Management corrective actions are not included.

  14. Resulting Problems • Assumptions are not challenged. • All resources are considered equal. • Resource leveling is often inconsistent. • Project plan is static. • Project plan is often difficult to defend. • Cost and schedule risks increase. • Lower probability of success.

  15. Real World Example:Aircraft Sensor Development for Defense Contractor MS Project: Unleveled MS Project: Leveled (Weekly) MS Project: Leveled (Monthly) 39 mo, $13.1M Too optimistic. Too pessimistic. 599 mo, $13.1M 77 mo, $13.1M Too unpredictable.

  16. Dynamic Progress Method • Addresses major flaws of CPM. • Duration is an output. • Productivity is accounted for. • Management corrective actions are incorporated. • Uses the power found in today’s PC’s to create operational simulations of projects. • Incorporates additional knowledge about project management.

  17. Earned Value Calculations Work To Do Completion Rate Completed Work Corrective Actions “Effective” Labor Hours Task Dependencies Task 1 Completed Work Number of Resources FS, SS etc. Actual Labor Hours Resource Productivity Task N Completed Work Fatigue Over-manning

  18. Project Manager Assumptions: Expected Amount of Work Assumed Productivity Level Assumed Availability (Days, Hrs/Day) = Expected Duration + + + Joe (80 hours) (1) (100%) (8 hrs/day) (10 days) DPM uses these inputs: Resource Productivity PERT/CPM use this input: Actual Labor Hours Number of Resources 10 5 Work To Do Completed Work

  19. Example Continued… MS Project: Unleveled MS Project: Leveled (Weekly) MS Project: Leveled (Monthly) 39 mo, $13.1M Too optimistic. Too pessimistic. 599 mo, $13.1M 77 mo, $13.1M Too unpredictable. pmBLOX: Productivity 100% pmBLOX: Productivity 85% 71 mo, $13.9M Realistic and consistent. 84 mo, $15.4M More realistic.

  20. Benefits of DPM • Provides actionable information to make decisions before problems occur. • Prevents resource allocation issues. • Shows which corrective actions are most effective and for which circumstances. • Identifies high risk areas. • Quantifies project acceleration options and shortest possible duration. www.dynamicprogressmethod.com

  21. Primary Uses of DPM • Project validation: • Task execution • Management corrective actions • Project acceleration: • Cost and labor consequences of acceleration • Theoretical shortest duration

  22. Benefits of Project Validation • Ensure that baseline plans are realistic and defendable prior to start of project. • Ensure that “course corrections” and new plans are realistic and defendable. • Reduce project risk. • Reduce midstream re-planning efforts. • Test consequences of underlying assumptions. • Ensure reliability of cost/schedule estimates. • Save staff time.

  23. Using for Validation End Customer A Each “level” of the hierarchy can use pmBLOX to validate the plans from the “level” below. A B General Contractor For competitive bids at each “level”, pmBLOX can be used for apples-to-apples comparison, as well as a non-biased 3rd party. B A B Subcontractors

  24. DPM Simulations

  25. Why Should You Care About DPM? For Projects: • Better baseline plans • Better mid-course corrections • Better risk management Higher Success Rate For Litigation: • Better understanding of fault. • Better defensibility of plans. • Better communication. Higher Success Rate

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