WP6 Scenarios

1. PACT Pathways for Carbon TransitionsKick-off Meeting Brussels, 7 October 2008 WP6 Scenarios Bertrand Château www. enerdata.fr

2. WP6 Objective and Structure • Objective: This work package will lead to the quantification of post-carbon worlds, according to consistent scenarios: • consistent as to the description of the post-carbon worlds and societies at the target year • consistent as to the description of the transition towards these worlds • Task 6.1 : definition and story-lines of post-carbon societies and transition process scenarios • Task 6.2 : quantification of the scenarios with VLEEM and POLES, assessment of models results • Task 6.3 : reporting

3. WP6 Management • Enerdata (5,3 mm): leader of the Work Package: • Leader of all tasks • consistent as to the description of the transition towards these worlds • UPMF-LEPII(5 mm): strong involvement in the work package • Work closely with Enerdata in all tasks • All other partners(1,7 mm per partner): • Strong involvement in task 6.1 (scenario design) • Minor involvement in task 6.2 (checking the forecasts)

4. Task 6.1 : Objective, methodology & deliverable • Objective: write-up the story-lines of two “post-carbon” scenarios 2050(and beyond), the differentiation between the scenarios being made on the relative importance of decentralised/autonomous sub-systems in the “post-carbon” societies • Methodology: The construction of scenario story-line will be based on the general principles of the scenario method and the back-casting approach: • Step1: construction of the “base” of the scenario, i.e. the identification of the main components of the scenario and the development of the systemic structure in which these components are inter-related (structural analysis) • Step2: assessment of the possible changes of these components in the time-frame of the study, and in the identification of those consistent with the targeted future in the one side, and consistent with the historical development in the other side (diachronic analysis) • Step3 : writing the story of the scenario towards the selected end-points, taking into account the inter-relations between scenario components and the social and political dimensions of the transitions mechanisms • Deliverable • Dl6.1 Report of task T6.1 “post-carbon scenarios storylines”, limited to consortium members, sponsors and participants in scenario workshop (month 26)

5. Task 6.1 : Implementation • Step1: construction of the “base” (M1 to M19) • Partners involved in WP1 to 4 point out the most important qualitative/quantitative issues as regard the conception of post carbon societies, and the transition process towards them; • Partners involved in modelling (WP5), are requested to point out the most important exogenous variables of the models to quantify a “post-carbon” world. • Enerdata will relate issues and exogenous variables, and build the systemic structure among exogenous variables (M19) • Step2: diachronic analysis (M1 to M20) • Partners involved in WP1 to 4 provide an historical outlook of the main features/ exogenous variables identified in step 1: historical trends and the possible inflexions/ruptures. Focuss in priority on EU countries, but references to other industrialised/emerging countries are also necessary to assess possible inflexions/ruptures. • Enerdata compiles the partners inputs (M20) • Step3 : writing the story line (M21 to M26) • 2-3 days workshop to define the two “post-carbon” scenarios: targeted “image” in 2050 (or beyond) , and milestones to operate the transition towards this image in due time. • Participants to this workshop will be the partners of the project and the key actors and stake-holders selected in the communication data-base • Enerdata write-up the story lines of the two scenarios

6. Task 6.2 : Objective, methodology and deliverables • Objective: to produce energy and GHG projections corresponding to the two “post-carbon” scenarios for 2050 (and beyond) which have been designed in task 6.1 • Methodology: The quantification of scenario and GHG projections will involve two steps: • Step1: translation of the qualitative components of the scenarios into quantitative exogenous inputs of the models • Step2: run of the models and to the assessment of the results • Deliverables: • DI6.2 Report of task T6.2 “quantification of the scenarios with VLEEM and POLES”, limited to consortium members, sponsors and participants in scenario workshop (month 32)

7. Task 6.2 : Implementation • Step1: translation (M21 to M27) • Design “tabular functions “ to formalize the link between qualitative statements and quantitative assumptions; • Assess the range of possible values for quantitative assumptions and distribute key values within this range in the tabular functions. • Relate scenario story-lines to qualitative statements expressed in the tabular functions and display corresponding quantitative values of exogenous inputs • Step2: runs and result assessment (M28 to M33) • Run of up-graded VLEEM model, assessment of results, sensitivity analysis and iterations: demand for energy services • Production of inputs for POLES demand functions. • Run of up-graded POLES model, assessment of results , sensitivity analysis and iteration: delivery of energy services • Assessment of the consistency among VLEEM and POLES results, iteration, sensitivity analysis

8. Task 6.3 : Objective, methodology and deliverables • Objective: to report the scenarios of transition pathways to post-carbon societies and their quantification for dissemination and communication purposes • Deliverables: • D6 : Report of the WP6 for dissemination and communication: “Scenarios” (month 34)

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