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Key Technology Pathways for Global Warming Mitigation

Key Technology Pathways for Global Warming Mitigation. Major Economics Forum on Energy and Climate Change State Department, Loy Henderson Auditorium Washington DC 27 April, 2009. Science and technology can provide new solutions and better choices. World Production of Grain (1961 – 2004).

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Key Technology Pathways for Global Warming Mitigation

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  1. Key Technology Pathways for Global Warming Mitigation Major Economics Forum on Energy and Climate ChangeState Department, Loy Henderson AuditoriumWashington DC27 April, 2009

  2. Science and technology can provide new solutions and better choices.

  3. World Production of Grain (1961 – 2004) Norman Borlag receives the Nobel Prize for the development of hybrid wheat The invention of ammonia synthesis by Haber and Bosch made possible artificial fertilizers. 2005:Population = 6.5 B 1960: Population = 3 B Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), United Nations

  4. In the next few decades, energy efficiency and conservation will be the most effective mitigations tools. • Developed countries need to change infrastructure that was built when fossil energy was cheap and the unintended consequences of its use was unknown. • Developing countries have the opportunity to leap-frog past developed countries and build an economically competitive infrastructure that uses energy efficiently.

  5. Regulation stimulates technology: Refrigerator efficiency standards and performance. Energy savings is greater than all of US renewable energy. Regulation of consumer electronics and computers can save a similar amount of energy.

  6. US Electricity Use of Refrigerators and Freezers compared to sources of electricity 800 Nuclear 700 600 500 150 M Refrigerators and Freezers Billion kWh per year 400 Conventional Hydro at 1974 eff at 2001 eff 300 Used 50 Million 2 kW All existing Renewables 200 PV Systems Used 3 Gorges Dam Saved 100 0

  7. Buildings use about 40 percent of total U.S. energy

  8. Santorini, Greece Bermuda White roofed buildings Retrofitting urban roofs and pavements with solar-reflective materials would be the equivalent to taking all of the world’s billion cars off the road for 11 years.

  9. Buildings consume ~40% of U.S. energy: • 90% reduction in new buildings (the California Public Utility Commission goal) • 50% reduction in retrofits • Enhanced comfort and safety

  10. Actual/Design EUI >1: performance worse than design goal bad good Mark Frankel, ACEEE (2008) LEED ratings are based on design performance, not actual performance(EUI = End Use Intensity)

  11. “Prius of buildings: Exploiting the interfaces between sub-systems to reduce energy consumption” HVAC Windows & Lighting Appliances Building Materials Natural Ventilation, Indoor Environment Onsite Power & Heat Thermal & Electrical Storage Building Design Software Tools to Design New Buildings With Embedded Energy Analysis Building Operating Platform Sensors, Communication, Controls, Real-Time Optimization

  12. Some markets are isolated from energy price signals (The Principal Agent Problem in Energy Efficiency)Regulation only captures modest gains: ~20% • Mechanisms are needed to supply up-front capital for efficiency improvements • Added mortgage or property taxes to pay for efficiency improvements that will decrease monthly expenses.

  13. International collaboration will accelerate carbon capture and storage. Long term geological storage needs to be tested in a variety of sites.

  14. CO2 sequestration is not off-the-shelf ready • The verdict is not in: IGCC vs. CO2 capture “after stack” vs. oxy-burn? Supercritical takes us from 43% to 48 - 50% efficiency. Better metal alloys or metal-ceramic composites are needed for better performance. • IGCC, Oxy-burn, etc. are ~8 - 10 years before significant deployment can start. In the mean time we are building conventional plants. We need a commercially viable “after-stack” capture technology. • The human body provides a good proof-of-principle of post combustion CO2 capture.

  15. The carbonic anhydrases are a family of enzymes that catalyze the rapid conversion of carbon dioxide to bicarbonate. CO2 + H2O  HCO3- + H+ (“high” pressure) Carbonic anhydrase CO2 + H2O  HCO3- + H+ (“low” pressure) Catalytic increase in rates range between 104 and 106 reactions per second.

  16. Nuclear Fission provides carbon-free base-load power Solving waste and nuclear proliferation will require international cooperation

  17. Cost of electricity generation vs. installed capacity (1990 dollars / installed Megawatt hour) Photovoltaics 2005 Windmills 2005 Gas turbines 5 - 10x cost difference (not including distribution, energy storage and back-up generation costs)

  18. Another transformative technology • An essential component transcontinental telephone line was the vacuum tube. • Vacuum tubes generated a lot of heat and burned out. • AT&T Bell Laboratories invested heavily in improving vacuum tubes. They also embarked on a research program to develop a solid state replacement to the vacuum tube.

  19. Artificial Photosynthesis The first important step is to use sunlight to “split” water into oxygen and hydrogen. 2H2O + 4 photons O2 + 4H

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