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SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS. Professor Roland Clift Centre for Environmental Strategy University of Surrey. 1. Global climate change 2. Sustainable development approach to national and international policy 3. Implications for the energy sector in the UK 4. The significance of air travel.

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SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS

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  1. SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS Professor Roland CliftCentre for Environmental StrategyUniversity of Surrey 1. Global climate change2. Sustainable development approach to national and international policy3. Implications for the energy sector in the UK4. The significance of air travel

  2. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

  3. RADIATION FROM SUN

  4. ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE Concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: Pre-industrial period: 270-280 ppmv (but during glacial periods it was much lower, down to 180 ppmw) Present value: 370 ppmv and rising fast...

  5. CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION AND TEMPERATURE: EVIDENCE FROM ICE CORES

  6. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE • can be caused by change in absorptive properties of the atmosphere • effect is a global temperature rise which leads to more localised effects • climate system is non-linear and dynamic, with positive feedbacks; therefore it is unpredictable.

  7. CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION AND TEMPERATURE: EVIDENCE FROM ICE CORES

  8. EVIDENCE FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE • Includes • Retreat of glaciers? • Increased frequency of “El Niño” events? • Average temperatures • Increased variability of climate E.g. floods in Europe one summer; extraordinarily high temperatures the next (with many thousands of early deaths). • Unusually high hurricane activity, in both Atlantic and Pacific • Etc., etc.

  9. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE Predicted to include: • Rise in sea level • Hence widespread flooding and displacement of people • Cooling in some places, especially if ocean circulation is affected • Displacement of climate zones faster than ecosystems can adapt: loss of habitat and hence extinctions • Increased desertification and water stress • Etc., etc

  10. THE “BASKET OF GASES”

  11. UK EMISSIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING GASES (1997)

  12. ROYAL COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION 22ND REPORT: “ENERGY - THE CHANGING CLIMATE” (2000) “…the world is now faced with a radical challenge of a totally new kind which requires an urgent response… By the time the effects of human activities on the global climate are clear and unambiguous it would be too late to take preventive measures.” Recommended ensuring that concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does not exceed 550 ppmv, twice the pre-industrial level.

  13. A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT APPROACH: “… an effective, enduring and equitable climate protocol will eventually require emission quotas to be allocated to nations on a simple and equal per capita basis… nations’ emission quotas (should) follow a contraction and convergence trajectory.” “…UK carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced by almost 60% from their current level by mid-century.”

  14. PER-CAPITA CO2 EMISSIONS, 1996 (Tonnes) “Contract & Converge” 3.6

  15. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Three “legs” to the argument, corresponding to the three components of sustainable development: 1. Enviro-centric: limit on carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere; 2. Socio-centric: the “contract and converge” principle; 3. Techno-centric: the target is technologically and economically feasible.

  16. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

  17. IS THE 60% REDUCTION FEASIBLE? • Demand-side reductions: e.g. improved building performance; modal shifts in transport; lesser improvements in manufacturing. - Would be encouraged by carbon levy… • Supply-side changes: - renewable energy sources; - electrical storage; grid stability; - carbon dioxide sequestration; - nuclear or fossil electrical generation; - different transport fuels and drives. Estimated cost of 60% reduction in UK = 2% of GDP

  18. UK CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM BURNING FOSSIL FUELS AMOUNTED TO 22 TONNES PER HOUSEHOLD IN 1998

  19. FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR, 2001 Source: DUKES – Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DTI)

  20. EFFICIENCY OF ENERGY CONVERSION Although the first law of thermodynamics states that energy can be neither crated nor destroyed, different forms of energy are not simply interchangeable. Converting heat to work involves using some form of heat engine in which heat is supplied at a high temperature (T1) and leaves at a low temperature (T2). In the case of a steam cycle, T1 corresponds to the steam temperature entering the turbine and T2 to that of the water formed from steam in the condenser. The maximum fraction of the heat entering the heat engine that can be converted to work (i.e. electrical energy in this case) is ηmax = 1 – (T2/ T1) = (T1– T2)/T1 Thus ηmax increases if T1 is increased. Real generating plants have conversion efficiency substantially below this thermodynamic limit. The fraction of the heat not converted to work (of electricity) leaves the engine as low-grade heat.

  21. COMBINED HEAT AND POWER (CHP) PLANT, USING STEAM CYCLE FOR CO-GENERATION

  22. TECHNICAL ISSUES • Need to look at energy use in total, not just electricity. • Biomass, agricultural waste, etc. need to be used to fire CHP plants primarily for heat output, with electrical output used to “back up” intermittent renewable sources. • Needs a fundamental review of how electricity networks can best be financed, managed and regulated to stimulate and accommodate large contributions to energy supplies from CHP and renewable sources.

  23. CONCLUSION For the UK, 60% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 is possible. The technology is (or soon will be) available. But is the political will available…?

  24. A FURTHER RCEP REPORT: THE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF CIVIL AIRCRAFT IN FLIGHT November 2002

  25. RCEP CONCLUSIONS 1 • The analysis in the 1999 IPCC Report is sound. • Research since then has, if anything, revealed even greater uncertainty. • Total contribution of aircraft to radiative forcing is 2 to 4 times that of carbon dioxide emissions alone. • Best estimate of the multiplier is about 3.

  26. RCEP CONCLUSIONS 2 • Even the industry’s own most optimistic targets for technological advance will not offset projected growth. • Short-haul flights (less than about 2000 km; i.e. 1000 nautical miles) are disproportionately damaging.

  27. EFFECT OF STAGE LENGTH ON SPECIFIC ENERGY USAGE (Babikian, Lukachko & Waitz, J.Air Transport Management, Nov.2002)

  28. SOME BROAD COMPARISONS In terms of contribution to radiative forcing: • Long-distance air travel is equivalent to 1-2 people travelling in a passenger car. • Per passenger-km, modern high-speed rail travel is at least an order of magnitude less damaging. • Per tonne-km, rail freight is one to two orders of magnitude less damaging that air freight. • Marine freight is a factor of 2 or more less damaging than rail freight.

  29. AIR TRANSPORT IN CONTEXT 1 Contribution to global climate change of passenger flights within, to and from the UK: * Based on “multiplier” of 2.7 for aircraft emissions + Assuming “low” growth and significant technological advance, with 8 to 14% reduction in other sources. SOURCE: “Aviation and the Environment: using economic instruments”, HM Treasury and department for Transport, March 2003.

  30. AIR TRANSPORT AND ENERGY POLICY Following the recommendations of the Royal Commission, the 2003 White Paper has confirmed the policy of achieving 60% reduction in UK carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. The projected growth in air travel would represent more than half the remaining 40%. …??

  31. RCEP CONCLUSIONS 3 • Airport capacity should not be expanded unless/until the contribution to climate change is brought into an effective policy. • Technological advances alone will not offset projected growth. • Some form of demand management will be needed.

  32. 1.Executive summary2. Profile of the Company - Strengths and Weaknesses - Size and structure of company - Business areas - Principal competitors - Company’s position in the sector(s) where it operates - Environmental performance and reporting The report should contain the following components:

  33. The report should contain the following components: 3. Business Environment – Opportunities and Threats • Legislative environment and likely changes • Impact of extended producer responsibility • Product liability • Sustainability of supply chain • Stakeholder perceptions and social “licence to operate”.

  34. The report should contain the following components: 4. Strategic Positioning Recommendations on: • Product development and discontinuation • Stakeholder engagement • Sustainability reporting • Etc….

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