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Severe Weather Management: July 4th Incident Review & Decision Support Strategies

This presentation outlines the severe weather event on July 4th, 2012, detailing storm reports, synoptic and radar overview, NWS decision support activities, and notable storm occurrences. The analysis includes meteorological data, shear profiles, unstable conditions, and the NWS response, highlighting the collaboration with media partners for public safety.

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Severe Weather Management: July 4th Incident Review & Decision Support Strategies

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  1. July 4th2012 Severe Weather Case Review and DSS Andrew Loconto NWS Burlington, VT

  2. Presentation Outline • Brief Background • Synoptic-scale & Radar Overview • NWS Decision Support Activities

  3. Intro • High-end severe weather event coinciding with 4th of July holiday (many outdoors) • Potentially bad things could have happened… • NWS and Media Partners did an outstanding job given these circumstances

  4. Storm Reports from July 4th • Notable Reports: • 63 mph gust at BTV • 75 mph gust at Diamond Island • Tennis Ball Hail in Peasleeville, NY (Clinton County) • Ping-pong ball Hail in Canton NY

  5. Storms #1: Northeast Kingdom Mini-bow echo Storm #3: Champlain Valley Bow Echo Storm #2: “The Pig” Supercell in St. Lawrence County

  6. 500mb jet of ~ 85 kts

  7. 700 mb Analyses By 00z, 700mb winds increased to ~35-40kts due to passage of Quebec mid-level shortwave trough

  8. Northwest Unidirectional Deep-layer shear profile 0-6km shear magnitudes support organized multicells/some supercells …

  9. 22z LAPS Sfc-based CAPE/CIN & SfcObs Much more stable in eastern VT due to first bow echo passing through ~1 hr earlier CAPEs exceeded 3000 J/kg in Champlain Valley; similar CAPEs in southern St. Lawrence Cty.

  10. RAP 40km Deep-layer Shear at 21z • North Country deep-layer shear of 40-60kts higher than 00z ALB sounding (closer to strongest mid-level winds) • CAPEs in excess of 2000 J/kg for most of the North Country • Northwest Flow: Bad!

  11. Storm #1: Northeast Kingdom Bow Echo

  12. TBSS signature indicative of hail Storm #2: “The Pig” – SLV Supercell 68 dbZ to 25 kftupradial of TBSS… probably big hail Evidence of a hook-echo at 0.5° (~10,000 ft elev.) 6.4° Z (up to ~46 kft) … 52 dbzat this level! 5.1° Z (up to ~38 kft) … still had ~60 dbZ up to this height

  13. Storm #2: “The Pig” – SLV Supercell 0.5° SRM: Broad Low-/mid-level rotational couplet (~10,000ft AGL) 6.4° SRM: Storm Top Divergence (~46,000 ft AGL)

  14. Much of the impacted area very unstable (recall the > 3000 J/kg LAPS CAPE). No reason to believe storms wouldn’t continue to weaken… Storm #3: Champlain Valley Bow Echo @ 2215Z

  15. Storm #3: Champlain Valley Bow Echo @ 2310Z

  16. Office Decision Support Actions

  17. DSS Activities: Work Log Entries

  18. Use of Social Media:Storm Expectations Morning Pre-Storm “Heads-Up” Severe T-Storm Watch issuance – great job of informing the public of the impending destructive wind threat!

  19. NWSChat Logs

  20. Will be updating this form soon • Will be placed on the Severe Intranet page for easy access • Good place to document what worked and what didn’t work out so well: • Helps us improve as an office • Identify Changes/Best Practices • SWOP staffing model changes?

  21. Summary • High-end severe outbreak that took place during a busy holiday. • Office decision support activities should serve as a model for future outbreaks. • MANY THANKS to our media partners for getting the message out!

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