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World Oil Production Trend: How U.S. Shale Oil Production Changes the Trend

World Oil Production Trend: How U.S. Shale Oil Production Changes the Trend. Oil Price. A play Hubbert curve Technology Examples Lambda Hubbert Curve Lambda Hubbert Change Price Forecast. 1. A Play. What is this?. This is Haynesville It is the number of rigs.

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World Oil Production Trend: How U.S. Shale Oil Production Changes the Trend

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  1. World Oil Production Trend: How U.S. Shale Oil Production Changes the Trend

  2. Oil Price • A play • Hubbert curve • Technology • Examples • Lambda Hubbert Curve • Lambda Hubbert Change • Price Forecast

  3. 1. A Play

  4. What is this?

  5. This is Haynesville It is the number of rigs

  6. Why is the rig count going down? 1) Low natural gas price 2) Technology 3) Depletion

  7. This suggests: Shale can have quick peaks and declines

  8. 2. Hubbert Hubbert is a trend

  9. Discovery and Production Discovery Hubbert Curve Discovery, Production T0 T1 T2 Time Production Hubbert Curve

  10. US Lower 48 Production over time, up to 2005

  11. CQ Hubbert Curve CQ Quadratic Hubbert Curve Time CQD 0 URR CQD Cumulative Hubbert Curve URR 0 Time

  12. Quadratic Hubbert Curve Hubbert Curve Based on Geological MAXIMUM Supply Production Cumulative Production 0 URR

  13. US Lower 48 Production versus cumulative production, up to 2005

  14. US Lower 48 Production over time, up to 2005

  15. 3. Technology

  16. ?

  17. US Technology 2005

  18. 4. Examples Examples of Hubbert and Technology

  19. What is this?

  20. It is the US

  21. This is the US on Steroids

  22. What is this?

  23. This is the Soviet Union

  24. This is the Soviet Union on Steroids

  25. 5. Lambda Hubbert Risk aversion

  26. Quadratic Hubbert Curve Hubbert Curve Based on Geological MAXIMUM Supply Production Cumulative Production 0 URR

  27. Quadratic Hubbert Curve Hubbert Curve Based on Geological Maximum Supply Path of Actual Oil Production Production Paths of potential oil production expansion Cumulative Production 0 URR

  28. Venezuela and US 2005 Indexed Hubbert Curve

  29. World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009

  30. World Normal and Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009

  31. World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009

  32. Normal Quadratic Hubbert Curve Equation Lambda Hubbert Curve Equation QP = b1*CQP + b2*CQP1+λ

  33. World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009

  34. World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009

  35. World Lambda Hubbert Multi-Curve 2012

  36. World Lambda Hubbert Multi-Curve 2012

  37. 6. Lambda HubbertChange Forecast

  38. 7. Price Forecasts Consolidating TRENDS

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